How to Approach Rookie QBs in Redraft (Fantasy Football)
Introduction
This article is the third edition of this series, so if you haven’t had a chance to read the first two, check them out here: How to Approach Rookie WRs in Redraft & How to Approach Rookie RBs in Redraft.Â
Drafting rookie quarterbacks (QBs) is a high-risk, high-reward strategy that requires accurate analysis and insight. With every NFL season, a handful of fresh QBs are thrown into the mix–it is always up for question whether we should target them in our redraft leagues. This article will guide you through some historical trends that might alter how you select first-year passers on draft day.
Analysis
It is important to first get an overview of where rookie QBs typically finish amongst other passers–below, I plotted these rankings for active QBs since 2019. The results aren’t very surprising. We only see three QBs who have finished in the top 10 for the position and just a few more who have finished inside the top 20. Off the bat, it seems unlikely that rookie QBs are a strong option in redraft leagues. Let’s take a closer look.
Next, I plotted each rookie quarterback’s average draft position (ADP by QBs, not overall) against their final fantasy ranking. It is apparent (as usual) that the fantasy football draft market is fairly efficient. There is a strong, positive correlation between fantasy managers’ expectations and how the rankings truly pan out. Note that 63.6% of QBs projected in the top ~25 have finished as high or higher than expected since 2019 (two of the QBs who underperformed missed games due to injury, hurting their ranking–Justin Fields & Anthony Richardson). One thing to note is that we don’t see too many ‘highly over-performing’ quarterbacks. With the exceptions of Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, and Kyler Murray, most rookie QBs don’t make too big of a splash, finding themselves as top-20 fantasy QBs.
Next, we can perform some retrospective analysis by looking closer at rookie QB finishes. For each sector (range of 10 draft positions), I plotted the number of players who finished better, equal, or worse compared to where they were selected. Some major takeaways:
- Â Rookie QBs (at all levels) typically don’t outperform their expectations
- Highly touted rookie quarterbacks tend to underperform in their first season
Applying this same analysis to non-rookie QBs we see a complete change in results. Some takeaways:
- Â Highly ranked non-rookie QBs perform as expected
- Â Mid-range QBs (ADP between 20 and 40) typically outperform expectation
Conclusion
Drafting rookie quarterbacks in fantasy football is a high-risk strategy. Historical data underscores that rookie QBs rarely exceed expectations to the point of high reward; in fact, over the last four years, only three have finished in the top ten. Given the efficiency of the fantasy draft market, especially at the quarterback position, it’s prudent to rely on the average draft position (ADP) rankings. These rankings are typically well-calibrated, reflecting both the potential and the risk associated with these players. Fantasy managers would be wise to approach rookie quarterbacks with caution, considering them more as speculative late-round picks or waiver wire considerations rather than foundational pieces of their teams.
As always, feel free to reach out Twitter with any questions!