Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 7
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 7! The season is progressing, and we’re getting more data to help us find target trends. Bye weeks have started, so we’ll want to look more at per-game stats. As usual, let’s begin by glancing at the season-long leaders.
Ja’Marr Chase has surpassed Puka Nacua as the league’s most targeted player. His 12.2 targets/game put him on pace for 207 on the season, which would be one short of Rob Moore’s NFL record of 208. Stefon Diggs comes in at third overall with 66 targets so far this season.
While T.J. Hockenson leads tight end in total targets with 47, Travis Kelce isn’t far behind at 46. Kelce is way out in front on a per-game basis, averaging 9.2 targets/game, compared to Hockensons’s 7.8.
Nobody is running away with the target lead at running back. Josh Jacobs currently leads the way with 35, but that breaks down to just 5.8 targets/game. Alvin Kamara missed the first three games of the season with his suspension but is averaging 8.3 targets/game, easily leading the position.
Stefon Diggs: 16 targets, 10 rec
Diggs is the WR2 on the season through six weeks. He also has the second-highest team target share at 34%. Only Cooper Kupp is ahead of him at 38%, though Diggs has played three times as many games. He continues to be as reliable as it gets at the position.
St. Brown and LaPorta combined for a whopping 59% team target share in Week 6. ARSB is averaging 9.8 targets/game, good for a 30% team target share. Meanwhile, LaPorta’s 11 targets tied his season high but only materialized into four receptions. Still, he’s the TE2 on the season and is on pace for 119 targets. That would be good enough for the second-most targets ever by a rookie tight end.
Michael Pittman Jr.: 14 targets, 9 rec
Pitty City has been making regular appearances in this article series. He’s seen double-digit targets in four of six games this season, and he turned his season-high 14 in Week 6 into his first 100-yard game of the year. With Gardner Minshew potentially set to start for the Colts for the remainder of the season, it’s also worth noting that running backs Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss combined for 13 targets. Also of note, rookie Josh Downs is now averaging 10 targets/game when Minshew starts.
Ja’Marr Chase: 13 targets, 6 rec
As mentioned in the intro, Chase is the new target leader on the season. It appears that Zac Taylor and the Bengals have embraced the “hyper-target your best player” offensive strategy. After a slow start, he’s averaging 14 targets/game over the last four weeks.
Adam Thielen: 13 targets, 11 rec
Inexplicably, Thielen is refusing to slow down. He has a 27% target share through six weeks, which would tie his career high set in 2017 with the Vikings. This feels unsustainable, but Thielen is a must-start until the wheels fall off, if they ever do. Frank Reich is handing off play-calling duties to Thomas Brown, so it will be worth monitoring Thielen’s usage in Week 7.
Drake London: 12 targets, 9 rec
Arthur Smith is letting Desmond Ridder cook, and London is the biggest beneficiary. Ridder just attempted a career-high 47 pass attempts, which led to career highs in targets (12), receptions (9), and receiving yards (125) for London. The first WR selected in the 2022 NFL Draft could start living up to his potential if Atlanta keeps up this pass rate.
Garrett Wilson: 12 targets, 8 rec
Wilson, the second WR off the board in last year’s NFL Draft, continues to rack up targets. He only had five targets in Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers went down early. Since then, he’s averaging 10 targets/game. He’s heading into a bye for Week 7 but should continue to live off volume when the Jets return to action in Week 8.
Terry McLaurin: 11 targets, 6 rec
McLaurin now has double-digit outings in two of the last three weeks. He easily led the Commanders in Week 6, with Curtis Samuel next at just four targets. Even that low total towers over Jahan Dotson, who saw a season-low one target in Week 6. Unfortunately, it’s probably best to drop Dotson at this point.
D’Andre Swift: 10 targets, 8 rec
Swift’s ten targets in Week 6 were just one shy of his career-high of 11, which he hasn’t seen since 2021. His 14% target share on the season is impressive in an offense that features a running quarterback and two stud wideouts. After getting basically shutout in Week 1, Swift is averaging 16.7 fantasy points/week since.
DK Metcalf: 10 targets, 4 rec
Metcalf’s ten targets marked a new high for the Seattle wideout. He’s still two behind Tyler Lockett for the team lead, as the two have combined to account for 43% of the team’s targets. Meanwhile, rookie Jaxson Smith-Njigba is struggling to gain steam.
Zay Flowers: 8 targets, 6 rec
Rookie Zay Flowers leads the Ravens in targets through six weeks. Even if we look at the team target share, his 28% is ahead of Mark Andrews and his 23% share. At this point, Flowers is the only wide receiver you can confidently slot into fantasy lineups,
Davante Adams: 5 targets: 2 rec
Adams has been targeted 853 times since 2018, 60 more than the next closest (Stefon Diggs) over that span. That breaks down to 10.7 targets/game, yet he’s only seen a combined nine targets over the last two weeks of the 2023 season. It’s less than ideal that Jimmy Gaoppolo could miss time, but Adams could get the squeaky wheel treatment moving forward.
Jordan Addison: 5 targets, 3 rec
With Justin Jefferson on IR, there is a huge opportunity for Addison to step up. He didn’t take advantage with just five targets in Week 6, though he did see a season-high 86% snap share. With Jefferson out at least three more weeks, Addison will look to capitalize on what should be increased opportunities.
George Kittle: 2 targets, 1 rec
Even with Deebo and CMC exiting early, Kittle still mustered up just two targets. Despite his big three-touchdown game in Week 5, Kittle has only seen seven targets combined over the past three weeks. He is always a candidate to catch a touchdown or two, but his 16% target share leaves a lot to be desired for an elite tight end.
James Cook: 0 targets, 0 rec
Cook profiles as a pass-catching running back, but that may not matter in an offense led by Josh Allen. He saw six targets in Week 1 but has averaged just 2.4 targets/game since. He has a 9% target share on the season, which isn’t going to cut it for a “pass-catching” back in Buffalo’s offense.