Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 2
We made it through Week 1! By now, you’re probably looking ahead and starting to set your Week 2 lineup. I want to help you with that process by giving you the context behind the target trends that you won’t find in a simple box score. That’s the concept of this weekly article. It isn’t a simple list of numbers ranking the most-targeted players of the week. While they’ll certainly be included, it’s always important to consider the context behind the numbers compared to offseason expectations. That’s the goal behind my goal here, and I hope you find it beneficial as you make your week-to-week fantasy decisions.
It’s tough to identify trends after just one week of data, but we need to consider what we saw, both on the field and in the box scores, during the 2024 season’s debut. Let’s dive into the target trends as we turn the page to Week 2.
Cooper Kupp – 21 targets, 14 rec
Kupp led the way in Week 1 while setting a career-high with a ridiculous 21 targets. It’s the most targets any player has seen in a season opener since Roddy White had 23 targets to open up the season way back in 2010. It’s familiar territory for Kupp, who saw 191 targets during his record-setting 2021 campaign. We can’t expect 20+ targets every week, but with Puka Nacua placed on injured reserve, double-digit targets are always in play.
Tyreek Hill – 12 targets, 7 rec
Devon Achane – 7 targets, 7 rec
Hill is another name we shouldn’t be shocked to find near the top of the target earners. He’s averaged 10.3 targets/game and a 31% team target share since arriving in Miami. Achane’s usage in the passing game, however, can be noted as encouraging. Not only were his seven targets the second most of his career, but he was frequently getting them while aligned like a wide receiver.
RBs with the most snaps in the slot or out wide in Week 1 (PFF)
1. De’Von Achane (14)
…
T2. Bijan Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler (8)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 9, 2024
Isaiah Likely – 12 targets, 9 rec
Mark Andrews – 2 targets, 2 rec
Likely’s huge night on Thursday was one of the biggest storylines of Week 1, but maybe we shouldn’t have been so surprised. He saw 13 targets in Week 18 of last season, though that came with Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and most of Baltimore’s starters on the sideline. Speaking of Andrews, it’s natural for his managers to panic after his lack of involvement, but there should be brighter days ahead.
Re-watched every snap that Mark Andrews was on the field last night. I was the lowest on our show on Andrews coming into the year so I could take a pretend victory lap, but instead, I have a message after watching the film. DO NOT PANIC…here’s why:
I added up every… pic.twitter.com/8lOUmbnBf2
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) September 6, 2024
As for Likely, a 30% target share is unsustainable, but it’s clear that he will have a role in the Ravens offense moving forward. It’s also worth noting that Baltimore running back Justice Hill led the position with eight targets in Week 1, as the Ravens were trailing the majority of the game.
Courtland Sutton – 12 targets, 4 rec
Devaughn Vele – 8 targets, 8 rec
Sutton’s 12 targets in Week 1 were the most that have gone his way since Week 6 of 2021. Unfortunately, he only hauled in four of them from rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Meanwhile, 26-year-old seventh-round pick Devaughn Vele led all rookie receivers with eight targets. He caught all eight, though his 2.0-yard average depth of target leaves something to be desired. Vele ran out of the slot at an 83.9% rate, giving him some appeal in deep PPR leagues, but his ceiling is capped unless Nix becomes a viable quarterback.
Wan’Dale Robinson – 12 targets, 6 rec
Malik Nabers – 7 targets, 5 rec
Maybe it was due to the game script, but Daniel Jones decided to target Robinson 12 times in Week 1. Much like Vele, they were primarily empty calorie targets out of the slot. Nabers’ day could have gone worse (see Marvin Harrison Jr.), but it was still a disappointing debut for the number six overall pick from April’s draft. The targets should increase for Nabers as the season progresses but it’s difficult to say how valuable they will be considering how bad Jones and the Giants offense looked against Minnesota.
Keenan Allen – 11 targets, 4 rec
New team, same target hog. Allen led the Bears with what amounted to a 38% target share. If you combine his targets with the eight to DJ Moore and four to Rome Odunze, the Bears’ big three accounted for 80% of the targets from Caleb Williams in his debut. Unfortunately, the rookie quarterback only attempted 29 passes and completed just 14 of them. The targets could condense even more around Allen and DJM if Odunze misses time with a knee sprain.
Jameson Williams – 9 targets, 5 rec
Amon-Ra St. Brown – 6 targets, 3 rec
Jameson Williams has played just 22 games (including playoffs) since getting drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Up to this point, he had been targeted three or fewer times in 17 of those games. However, there had been a positive drum beat surrounding Williams all offseason and he has an impressive college pedigree, so we may have witnessed a true breakout in Week 1. As for ARSB, his six targets match the lowest total he saw in any game last season. He’s likely to bounce back and soak up plenty of targets from Jared Goff in future weeks.
Brock Bowers – 8 targets, 6 rec
Bowers may have been the most impressive rookie in Week 1. His eight targets were the most for a rookie tight end in Week 1 since T.J. Hockenson in 2019. They were also two more than teammate Davante Adams and third most among all tight ends in Week 1. There has been an influx of young tight ends in recent years and Bowers has the potential to be the best of the bunch.
Ja’Marr Chase – 6 targets, 6 rec
Justin Jefferson – 6 targets, 4 rec
They aren’t on the same team anymore, but these former LSU teammates are widely considered two of the most talented wide receivers in the league. I’m covering them together here because, like Amon-Ra St. Brown, they are bound for higher volume days. Chase was shaking off the rust of his training camp hold-in, while Jefferson and the Vikings were steamrolling the Giants. It may be a bumpy ride for these studs sometimes, but there is no need to panic.
Kyle Pitts – 3 targets, 3 rec
Drake London – 3 targets, 2 rec
All offseason fantasy analysts posited how much more Kyle Pitts and Drake London would be utilized with Kirk Cousins passing them the ball in an offense designed by Zac Robinson. The answer turns out to be not at all, at least through one week. No, it was journeyman wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud who led Atlanta with seven targets. Surely London and Pitts will be more involved when Cousins isn’t constantly berated by T.J. Watt, right?
Marvin Harrison Jr. – 3 targets, 1 rec
As I alluded to earlier, Harrison’s debut may have been the most disappointing of the week. Fantasy managers expected more from one of the most highly touted prospects in recent memory. We can’t make any sweeping declarations after just one week and there will certainly be games where MHJ is more involved, but patience is hard. For a more in-depth breakdown with video evidence, check out what Borg posted about his performance on X.
Every route from Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 1 📽️
Quick thoughts:
-Normally, I ignore boxscore hunting this early.. but his 3 targets really do tell the story: He seemed like the “1st read” on just 3, maybe 4 plays.
-The long developing plays just weren’t there as Kyler… pic.twitter.com/FAFI6H5c2R— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) September 9, 2024
Chris Olave – 2 targets, 2 rec
The Saints didn’t need anything from Olave as they pummeled the Panthers from the opening whistle in Week 1. His two targets are his total in 32 career games played. While his lack of involvement can be excused in real-life football, Olave’s fantasy managers sure would have liked to see him get in on the touchdown party in the Superdome. He’s likely to see more targets next week when the Saints head to Dallas.
Dalton Kincaid – 2 targets, 1 rec
As somebody who pegged Kincaid as his #MyGuy this offseason, this one hurts the most. However, there were some silver linings despite the low target volume. Kincaid played on 84% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, a rate he topped just once as a rookie last season. He also ran the second-most routes on the Bills, trailing only Keon Coleman. Of course, snaps and routes don’t matter if the targets don’t come along with them. We’ll find out if they do on Thursday night in what should be a shootout with Miami, and Kincaid will be right back in my fantasy lineups.