Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 16
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 16! If you’re still alive in the fantasy playoffs, congratulations! This article aims to keep you up to date on the current target trends, which are more important than ever as you chase that #FootClanTitle.
As usual, let’s start by checking in on the overall target landscape in the league.
Justin Jefferson is now the solo target leader with 158 on the season. Tyreek Hill has the second most with 152, and Davante Adams is right behind him with 151. Travis Kelce maintains his massive target lead at tight end with 127 targets, 27 more than the next closest at the position, T.J. Hockenson. Austin Ekeler also has a huge target lead at running back with 115, way out in front of Christian McCaffrey in second with 94. Both Kelce and Ekeler have a chance to set new season-long records at their positions with just three games left in the season.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders for the rest of the season, but for now, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 14.
Justin Jefferson: 16 targets, 12 rec
K.J. Osborn: 16 targets, 10 rec
The target leader on the season also tied for the most targets in Week 15. Jefferson has been targeted 31 times over the last two weeks and has seen a target share of over 30% in seven of his last eight games. Meanwhile, Osborn matched Jefferson and set a new personal career high with his 16 targets in Minnesota’s furious comeback victory against the Colts.
A.J. Brown: 16 targets, 9 rec
The 16 targets to AJB were the most for him as an Eagle and tied his career high. His 43% target share in the game raised his season-long share to 29%. He already has 118 targets on the season, which sets a new career high with three games to go.
Michael Pittman Jr.:14 targets, 10 rec
Pittman has seen double-digit targets in two of his last three games played. As great as that may sound, he was only targeted four times in the odd game out. He already has 86 targets on the season, just two shy of his career-high from last season, but it still feels disappointing. Despite the strong performance in Week 15, he’ll still be tough to trust in playoff lineups for Week 16.
Ja’Marr Chase: 13 targets, 7 rec
Not much needs to be written about Chase. He commanded a 34% target share against Tampa Bay and now has a 30% share on the season. Even with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd back, Chase is the clear alpha wideout in Cincy.
Tyreek Hill: 13 targets, 9 rec
Hill has always been a target hog, but he’s taking it to new heights in Miami. He’s seen double-digit targets in three consecutive weeks and is up to 152 on the season. That’s just seven away from his career high with three games left to go.
Russell Gage: 12 targets, 8 rec
Mike Evans: 10 targets, 5 rec
Gage hasn’t seen the volume that many were hoping for when he joined the Buccaneers this season. Missing four games to injury certainly hasn’t helped, but this was still the first time since Week 3 that he’s seen double-digit targets. He averaged 101.5 targets in his last two seasons with Atlanta but has only seen 55(!) so far in his first season with Tampa Bay. As for Mike Evans, he’s on pace to see his most targets since 2016 but hasn’t found the end zone since Week 4.
DeAndre Hopkins: 11 targets, 7 rec
Hopkins continues to see elite volume, averaging 10.8 targets/game. That’s the same rate as Davante Adams and would translate to 183 over a 17-game pace. Unfortunately, those targets aren’t nearly as valuable when coming from Colt McCoy and get even worse when they come from Trace McSorley.
Drake London: 11 targets, 7 rec
London commanded a 42% target share in Desmond Ridder’s first start, well above his already impressive 29% share on the season. It’s a good sign for London that Ridder attempted 26 passes in his debut, a mark hit by Marcus Mariota just four times this season. London has seen double-digit targets in three games this season, two of which have come in the past two weeks.
Diontae Johnson: 10 targets, 10 rec
Oh, what could’ve been for Diontae this season. He’s seen 123 targets so far but hasn’t topped 100 yards in a single game. What’s even more statistically improbable, he still hasn’t found the end zone in 2022. The next most targeted player with zero touchdowns on the season is Tyler Higbee, way down at 81 scoreless targets.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: 10 targets, 10 rec
Travis Kelce: 10 targets, 10 rec
Jerick McKinnon: 8 targets, 8 rec
Patrick Mahomes distributed his targets relatively evenly between his top three targets in Week 15. It’s no surprise for Kelce, though it was the first time all season that JuJu was double-digit targets in consecutive weeks. McKinnon, the RB1 in back-to-back weeks, has been targeted 17 times over the past two weeks. His 59 targets on the season are the eighth most among running backs.
Evan Engram: 10 targets, 8 rec
You may prefer to refer to him as “Shmevan Shmengram”, but the Jaguars’ tight end is their most targeted player over the past two weeks. It’s no coincidence that he’s seen the fourth most tight end targets and is the TE4 on the season. He has entered must-start territory in the fantasy tight end landscape.
Noah Brown: 9 targets, 6 rec
Brown was, surprisingly, the target leader for Dallas in Week 15. There were big hopes for Michael Gallup this season, but Brown has consistently been the WR2 for the Cowboys behind CeeDee Lamb. He’s already been targeted 62 times this season after compiling just 66 targets over the first four seasons of his career. He isn’t somebody to trust in the fantasy playoffs, but neither is Gallup.
Chris Olave: 4 targets, 3 rec
Olave could certainly be a target hog someday, but he isn’t there yet. Rookies tend to gain steam later in the season, but the four targets for Olave are his lowest since Week 1. Teammates Juwan Johnson and Rashid Shaheed saw the same or more targets than Olave in Week 15.
Pat Freiermuth: 0 targets, 0 rec
The Muth, tragically, was not luth in Week 15. It was the only game in his short career that he’s failed to see a single target. He’s been on the field for less than 60% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps in three consecutive weeks, perhaps in part to a foot injury that he’s battling through. Regardless, Freiermuth’s goose egg may have been a brutal blow to anybody relying on him in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.