Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 15
Welcome to the Target Trends article for Week 15! The fantasy playoffs are here for most leagues and bye weeks are done! At this point, every player has had the opportunity to play in 13 games, so target totals are somewhat more meaningful. However, given injuries, team record, and strength of schedule, it’s still important to consider per-game averages, target shares, and recent sample sizes as we examine target trends. As usual, let’s begin this article by looking at the overall target leaders so far this season.
Target Trends
Not much has changed at the top of the target leaderboard. CeeDee Lamb, now up to 131 targets, continues to lead the way. Garrett Wilson checks in next with a 128. Ja’Marr Chase climbed up to third with 127 after his huge 18-target outing on Monday night. Malik Nabers is one behind at 126 but still leads on average at 11.5 targets/game.
Brock Bowers has the fifth most targets in the entire league and easily the most among tight ends with 118. The top three at the position remain the same with Travis Kelce at 107 and Trey McBride at 106. There is still no other tight end over 100 targets.
The story remains the same at running back. Alvin Kamara still leads and is up to 84 targets on the season. He’s on pace for 110 targets, which would be a new career high in his eighth season. De’Von Achane is currently second with 71 targets and Breece Hall remains in third at the position with 62, despite missing Week 14. No other running back has topped 60 targets.
I’ll continue to lead off this article with season-long target leaders each week, but for now, let’s check out the weekly target trends heading into Week 15.
Ja’Marr Chase – 18 targets, 14 rec
Chase fell one short of his career-high with 18 targets on Monday night but he used them to propel himself into contention for the receiving triple crown. He may be third in targets but he leads the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319), and receiving touchdowns (15). He’s making a strong case for fantasy MVP of the 2024 season.
Puka Nacua – 14 targets, 12 rec
Nacua is simply one of the best target commanders in the NFL. His season started slowly, playing just one full game between injury and ejection over the first nine weeks. However, since Week 10, he’s averaged 11.6 targets/game, a higher rate than league leader Malik Nabers (11.5). Over those five weeks, he’s seen 16 more targets than teammate Cooper Kupp, who has also been healthy. Puka is the overall WR24 on the season but he vaults up to WR4 at the position in fantasy points/game (15.7).
Miami Dolphins Pass-Catchers
The Miami offense was back to spreading the ball around the way many expected them leading up to the season. Tyreek Hill led the way with 14 targets, hitting double digits for the first time since Week 1. Jaylen Waddle was right behind with 12 targets, his first double-digit target performance of the season. De’Von Achane stayed involved in the passing game with seven targets, saving his fantasy day with twice as many yards through the air (45) than on the ground (24). Jonnu Smith, who had led the Dolphins in targets through the previous three weeks, didn’t see his first target until the third quarter and didn’t catch his first pass until overtime, where he converted three targets to three receptions, including the game-winner.
Amari Cooper – 14 targets, 6 rec
The Amari Cooper we all know and love finally showed up in the shootout between Buffalo and Los Angeles. His 14 targets in Week 14 were one more than the 13 he totaled in his first four games as a Bill combined. He accounted for a team-high 38% target share, his highest in any game this season, including with the Browns. He could be a league-winner if that kind of target share from Josh Allen continues in the fantasy playoffs.
Trey McBride – 14 targets, 7 rec
McBride has 41 targets over the last three weeks, more than any player in the NFL. That’s a whopping 13.7 targets/game and a massive 36% target share. He’s the TE3 on the season despite failing to convert any of his targets into a touchdown reception. He missed Week 4 but is still on pace for 141 targets in 16 games, which would approach Diontae Johnson’s record of 147 scoreless targets from 2022, though The Ballers have guaranteed that he catches a touchdown pass before the end of the season.
David Njoku – 13 targets, 7 rec
Njoku has been targeted 30 times over the past two games, even more than McBride. That translates to a 32% target share, which is good in any offense but even more exciting when the targets are coming from Jameis Winston. His 87 targets are the fourth most among tight ends, despite the fact that he missed three games and played less than 50% of the offensive snaps in two others while battling injury to start the season.
Jordan Addison – 12 targets, 8 rec
Addison set a new career high with 12 targets and, even more impressively, converted three of them into touchdowns. Justin Jefferson is still the unquestioned alpha in Minnesota with 39 more targets than Addison this season, but Addison is making the most of them with just as many touchdowns (seven) as JJets. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold is supporting two top-16 fantasy wide receivers, just as we all expected.
Brian Thomas Jr. – 12 targets, 8 rec
Post-bye rookie bump? A rapport with Mac Jones? Whatever it is, Thomas has set new season highs in target count in consecutive weeks. He is up to a 22% target share on the season, including earning a 31% target share over the last two weeks. That isn’t likely to go down with both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis on injured reserve.
Calvin Ridley – 12 targets, 7 rec
Will Levis targeted 10 players on his 32 pass attempts in Week 14 and Ridley was the only player to see more than four. It took the Titans a while to figure out how to use their big free-agent signing this season. He averaged just 4.8 targets/game and an 18% target share over the first four weeks of the season. After Tennessee’s Week 5 bye, those numbers jumped to 8.9 targets/game and a 29% target share over the past nine games.
Davante Adams – 11 targets, 9 rec
Garrett Wilson – 10 targets, 7 rec
Adams and Wilson have been co-dominating the target share for the Jets recently. Adams has 23 and Wilson is just behind with 20 in the last two games. That accounts for a combined 56% target share. Tyler Conklin is the next most targeted player over that span with just 10 targets, equating to a 13% target share.
Adam Thielen – 11 targets, 9 rec
Thielen never had more than five targets in a game in his first five of the season as he missed games with injury. In his last two games, however, he’s combined for 21 targets. Is he finally healthy? Did he find the Fountain of Youth? Is Bryce Young finally a competent quarterback? Whatever it is, Thielen looks like he will be relevant in the fantasy playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons Pass-Catchers
Ray-Ray McCloud set a season-high with his 11 targets in Week 14, five more than Drake London and four more than Darnell Mooney. He will be hard to trust as an option in the fantasy playoffs, however, as he’s still significantly behind London and Mooney in Atlanta’s pecking order and the targets are coming from a broken Kirk Cousins. That being said, he is probably more trustworthy than Kyle Pitts, who is averaging 3.8 targets/game over his last six.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. – 10 targets, 5 rec
By now, you’ve probably heard that Tracy began his collegiate career as a wide receiver. His pass-catching chops haven’t been put to use often this season, as he averaged just 2.5 targets/game over the first 13 weeks. That changed in Week 14 when Tracy saw a season-high 10 targets. The Giants are a mess and it’s uncertain who will be at quarterback for them, but Tracy should not get game-scripted out during the fantasy playoffs, even if he isn’t seeing double-digit targets every game.
Las Vegas Raiders Tight Ends
Brock Bowers’ five targets were his lowest total since Week 8, but he is still on pace for 154 on the season. That would come close to the all-time record among tight ends of 156. Michael Mayer was the surprise of the week. He saw a career-high nine targets after averaging just 3.0 targets/game over the first 21 games of his career. Bowers is still a must-start fantasy tight end, but it’s scarier after his low-volume week and Desmond Ridder entering the starting lineup at quarterback for the Raiders.
A.J. Brown – 4 targets, 4 rec
AJB saw 10 targets in Week 1 and hasn’t cracked double-digits since. He still is just one of two players in the league above a 30% team target, joining Malik Nabers. The primary problem is that Jalen Hurts is attempting just 25 passes/game, which ranks 35th among qualified quarterbacks. Brown can single-handedly win a fantasy matchup, but it has to come through big plays and touchdowns.
Deebo Samuel – 3 targets, 2 rec
Deebo’s 19% target share is the lowest since he saw an 18% share as a rookie. That’s behind both Jauan Jennings (25%) and George Kittle (22%). He is averaging 5.3 targets/game, the lowest of his career. He’s a former league-winner, but Deebo is a risky start in the fantasy playoffs this season.
Jayden Reed – 1 target, 0 rec
Reed has been targeted at an even lower rate than Deebo this season. He’s seeing just 4.5 targets/game and a 16.5% target share. This is compounded by the fact that Jordan Love is attempting just 29.8 passes/game on the season and hasn’t topped 30 attempts since Week 9. Reed is another volatile option that relies on big plays and touchdowns, as opposed to volume.
Comments
Who to start at wr this week. 1 of these in a non ppr league. Jeudy..Cupp..Adams or Higgins?