Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 13
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 13! The fantasy playoffs are on the horizon, and with six teams on bye, target trends are more important than ever when searching for viable fantasy options. As usual, this article will start with the overall target trends for the season.
Target Trends
Keenan Allen continues to dominate the league in targets, leading in both overall (129) and targets/game (11.7). Stefon Diggs comes in next with 121 total targets, though Tyreek Hill is second in target rate at 10.9 targets/game. The trio are the only players with 120+ targets, while five others have 110+ so far.
T.J. Hockenson is still out in front among tight ends with 108 targets and remains the only tight end in the triple digits. He also leads the position with 9.0 targets/game and is the current overall TE1 in fantasy football. Travis Kelce is just behind him with 88 targets and a rate of 8.8 targets/game. Evan Engram is the only other tight end with at least 80 targets. He also remains the most-targeted player without a touchdown this season.
Once again, Alvin Kamara continues to lead running backs with 61 targets, though Christian McCaffrey is closing the gap with his 58. CMC has topped 100 targets in each of the four seasons that he’s played at least 16 games but is on pace for just 90 this season. Jahmyr Gibbs is also moving up the leaderboard and is up to third with his 52 targets. He’s averaged 6.8 targets/game since returning from injury in Week 7.
I’ll continue leading off this article with season-long target leaders, but for now, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 13.
Keenan Allen – 16 targets, 14 rec
It’s no surprise to see the target leader top the weekly list again. Allen is averaging 15.3 targets/game over the last three weeks, which equates to a 39% team target share over that stretch. Only five players in NFL history have earned 200+ targets in a season, and Allen has a chance to become the sixth. He’s currently on pace for 199.4.
Michael Pittman Jr. – 13 targets, 10 rec
Josh Downs – 13 targets, 5 rec
Pitty City has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games and is averaging 11.5 targets/game over that stretch. He’s on pace for 172 targets, which would blow away the career-high of 141 that he set just last season. As for Downs, his 13 targets set a new career-high for the rookie. That number also matches the 13 targets he saw combined over the previous three games when he was struggling through a knee injury.
Gabe Davis – 12 targets, 6 rec
Stefon Diggs – 11 targets, 6 rec
Davis tied his season-high target total just one week after going untargeted. He also saw 12 targets back in Week 8, then proceeded to see just eight targets combined from Weeks 9-11. Make no mistake, Diggs and his 29.5% team target share set him apart as the alpha WR in Buffalo.
Marquise Brown – 12 targets, 6 rec
They didn’t amount to a WR1 fantasy week, but the 12 targets that went Hollywood’s way in Week 12 were three more than he saw in Kyler Murray’s first two appearances of the season combined. His 27% target share was more in line with his season average of 25.7%, compared to the 15% target share over the previous two games. Brown’s 98 targets are 33 more than his next closest teammate, Trey McBride.
Curtis Samuel – 12 targets, 9 rec
Terry McLaurin – 11 targets, 4 rec
After getting ejected in the second quarter last week, Samuel saw his most targets in a game since Week 2 of 2019 with Carolina. While he led the team in targets, he tied Logan Thomas for the third-most routes run on the team. As for McLaurin, he’s been disappointing for fantasy in recent weeks when considering his strong usage. He’s averaging 8.7 targets/game over the last three games but has finished outside of the top 40 fantasy wideouts in each of those three weeks.
Pat Freiermuth – 11 targets, 9 rec
Freiermuth was targeted just 14 times over his first five games before seeing the second-most targets of his career in Week 12. It’s probably not a coincidence that it came in the first game after Pittsburgh fired Offensive Coordinator Matt Canada. It’s unrealistic to expect him to maintain the 34% target share that went his way, but it looks like the Muth could be more consistently involved in the offense moving forward.
Rashee Rice – 10 targets, 8 rec
Rice hit double-digit targets for the first time in his career against the Raiders and turned them into the best fantasy outing of his rookie season, finishing the week as the WR4 in Week 12. He leads all Kansas City wideouts with 56 targets this season. No other player on the Chiefs besides Travis Kelce has yet to reach 40.
Chris Olave – 9 targets, 7 rec
Nine targets usually wouldn’t be enough for a player of Olave’s caliber to make the cut for this article, but he did it on just 47% of the Saints’ offensive snaps in Week 12. Who knows what his final total would have been if he wasn’t forced to leave with a concussion in the third quarter? With Michael Thomas on injured reserve and Rashid Shaheed dealing with a thigh injury, Olave projects to continue seeing a hefty target share if he can clear concussion protocol.
David Njoku – 9 targets, 6 rec
Njoku only has two touchdowns so far this season but is the TE10 on the back of pure volume. He’s seen 56 targets since Week 7, trailing only T.J. Hockenson (61) over that stretch. Njoku set his career-high of 88 targets during his second season in 2018 but is on pace for 121 this season.
Breece Hall – 9 targets, 7 rec
The good? Hall led all running backs with nine targets in Week 12. The bad? He had a -0.4-yard aDOT on those targets. Hall will continue to see the workload to keep him fantasy-relevant, but his ceiling is gone in an offense led by Tim Boyle.
Puka Nacua – 8 targets, 4 rec
Cooper Kupp – 5 targets, 3 rec
Puka’s target volume continues to be consistent. He’s seen at least seven targets in every game this season and is still on pace for 172, which would break the current rookie record of 167 set by Terry Glenn in 1996. As for Kupp, his five targets are a new season-low in games where he played at least 80% of the offensive snaps.
Drake London – 7 targets, 5 rec
Bijan Robinson – 6 targets, 3 rec
Kyle Pitts – 2 targets, 2 rec
London’s and Robinson’s target totals may not seem huge, but they combined to account for a 65% target share in Week 12. London has been consistent in Atlanta’s run-centered offense, seeing at least seven targets in nine of his ten games played. Meanwhile, fellow first-round pick Kyle Pitts has only topped six targets twice in eleven games.
Ja’Marr Chase – 6 targets, 4 rec
It wasn’t that long ago that Chase led the NFL with 12.1 targets/game through the first eight weeks of the season. He’s now averaged just 6.8 targets/game over the last four weeks. You likely have to keep rolling him out in your fantasy lineup, but his ceiling is diminished with Jake Browning at QB instead of Joe Burrow.
Jonathan Mingo – 6 targets, 4 rec
Adam Thielen – 3 targets, 1 rec
Mingo has seen at least six targets in three consecutive weeks, while this is the first time with fewer than six targets for Thielen since Week 1. I gave Thielen a vote of confidence in this article last week but mentioned that he could be in trouble if Carolina begins looking toward the future in what is shaping up to be a lost season. That appears to be the case with the firing of Frank Reich this week.