Fantasy Football Saturday Morning Mailbag – Week 2
Welcome to this weekly mailbag series! This article will take selected questions from The Footballers’ Discord server that you can join here. In it, you can find a dedicated channel for start/sit questions, public fantasy advice, and a general channel for all things fantasy football. There are also exclusive channels only available to Footclan members. Discord members are great at answering questions and you never know when your questions will appear here.
Week 2 is here after an absolutely chaotic Week 1. Old takes got exposed like this gem from last week: “Keep guys like that on the roster, not the Jakobi Meyers or Ryan Tannehill types who are just roster cloggers.” At least I was half right, but I wanted to bury my head in the sand after Meyers’ second TD score.
Scoring last week was low across the board as teams that normally march up and down the field couldn’t get rolling. If I could Back-to-the-Future myself, I would have loved to see what sort of loot I could have won betting against Buffalo, Kansas City, and Cincinnati. On to Week 2 and some of the dilemmas fantasy managers are dealing with.
Question #1 – Garrett Wilson
What would you do with Garrett Wilson? – FFBaller123
Answer: I’m right there with you. I drafted Garrett Wilson in over half of my redraft leagues. It’s also a tough situation for dynasty managers.
In redraft, I think it’s a wait-and-see. Last year was a disaster for Garrett when Zach Wilson was the QB. There are a few indicators that things might not be as bad as they seem right now. The Jets do have a new coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers will be around to mentor Zach Wilson. Last week, Wilson had some nice plays mixed in with a lot of bad against Buffalo’s very good defense. Elite players tend to find a way even in tough situations.
Dynasty is more tricky. If you have a win-now team, you have to decide between trading for another elite player that can help you immediately like Travis Kelce or maybe Stefon Diggs. That decision will hurt in the long run. The other option is just letting it ride and hope for the best.
Garrett Wilson is a great buy-low for teams looking to make the leap next year. If your team is looking like a borderline contender, throw out some offers for him. He’s the type of player who can help your team for several years if you’re willing to more or less punt on this year to build a contender.
Question #2 – Start/Sit
Answer: We’ve barely begun the season and this is a legitimate question. Who saw this coming before the season started? It’s not looking good for Austin Ekeler this week, which would give Joshua Kelley plenty of opportunity on one of the most explosive offenses in the league one week after totaling 91 yards and a TD as Ekeler’s backup. The matchup isn’t great against Tennessee, but Najee Harris totaled 33 yards against San Francisco last week and now faces a Cleveland defense that completely shut down Joe Burrow and company. If Ekeler is out, I’m going with Kelley with zero hesitation. I’d lean toward starting Kelley over Harris even if Ekeler suits up.
Question #3 – Trades
This guy offered me Etienne and Jeudy for Chase, do I accept? – Zyther
Answer: Short answer – no way! I’m putting this question in here to address a larger strategic question. You should be very wary of two-for-one type trades like this one or trades with four or five decentish players/picks for a stud. A lot of these trades are based on trade calculators that assign points. Add enough small pieces and it’s a fair trade for a stud right?
In leagues that have a large starting roster with multiple flex spots, there is an argument for trading a stud away for a couple of solid starters or tiering down in deeper leagues to gain an extra starter (something more like Ceedee Lamb and Etienne maybe?), but I would be hesitant. In my mind, the best piece of a multi-player/pick offer is worth full price and each added asset gets discounted more and more.
Let’s say each player has a dynasty value from 1-100 and make Chase worth 100 points. Let’s make Etienne worth 55 and Jeudy worth 45 points for simplicity. Shouldn’t it be a fair trade? As a dynasty manager, I’m thinking, Etienne is worth 55, but that second piece isn’t worth 45 anymore. To me, it’s worth 75% of value – more like 33 points. So now the trade is 88 to 100. What if they offer another piece? Let’s say Jaylen Warren who is worth 20 points. Even if you discount him by half, you still get pretty close to 100. Now the problem becomes the roster. With two extra players coming in, dynasty managers will probably need to start dropping players from their roster and those players have value too. You should avoid trades involving multiple assets for a stud unless the value is too good to ignore and/or it makes sense for your long and short-term goals.
Question #4 – Start/Sits
Anyone else suffering through the idea of starting David Montgomery this week? – Wess
Answer: Yes. Montgomery had a TD and no one’s going to hate 21 rushing attempts in a solid offense, but he only totaled 74 yards. Worse, he received zero targets. Still worse, Jahmyr Gibbs looked uber-explosive with the few touches he received and should shoulder more and more of the load going forward.
Remember when I said to avoid trading away studs for multiples? Montgomery is exactly the type of player you offer along with another player or pick to dynasty managers to tier up. Fantasy football doesn’t have to be hard. Make decisions easy. Go try and get a player a tier or two higher than Montgomery. Someone you don’t have to sweat throwing into your flex.
Question #5 – Start/Sits
Answer: This normally wouldn’t even be a debate, but Breece Hall is facing the Dallas defense that dominated last week. When you have studs, you play studs. Nico Collins is a great guy to throw into the flex when desperate, but he’s not going to produce many elite weeks. Doubs had a great week hauling in two TDs, but he only had five targets and tallied just 26 yards. Even against Dallas, I think Hall has the highest floor and highest ceiling.
Question #6 – Start/Sits
Answer: This is a really interesting decision. James Cook is the first one in. Last week wasn’t great, but he received 12 rushes and six targets. Granted he might not be the goal line guy, but he’s getting the majority of the work and could easily get a TD or two when (if?) the Buffalo offense starts cooking. I think a matchup against Las Vegas would be a good opportunity to put last week in the rearview mirror.
The tough part is the next one. I don’t like Raheem Mostert with Devon Achane coming back. If not for a TD, last week would have been a complete bust and Miami seems bent on an unruly running back by committee. I think Lockett is due for a bounceback and he would have been my pick normally, but Seattle will be missing both of their starting offensive tackles to injury last week while the offense sputtered. I don’t think the bounceback happens this week.
Speaking of injuries, the Houston offensive line is a little beat up. Dameon Pierce was mostly shut down while playing a very good Baltimore defense. I think he offers a safe 8-10 point floor this week, but not much else while serving in a struggling offense.
That leaves D.J. Moore. I’m not sure what’s up with the Chicago offense, but those coaching seats are going to get awfully hot if they can’t get Justin Fields going and that can only happen if Moore gets the targets he deserves. The coaches won’t be able to weather many more offensive outings like last week. If you want to see a dead body, check out J.T. O’Sullivan’s breakdown of Fields and the Chicago offense – brutal on all fronts.
If you need points to win, play it safe and go with Pierce. If you need a player to win the week, go with Moore.