Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 16
Good morning, FootClan, and a very warm welcome to Week 15 of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag! It’s Saturday, it’s early, and as always, I am here to select a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and answer some of the hot topics that didn’t quite make it to that week’s edition of The Footcast. The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world, and is your go-to if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today and get involved with thousands of members across dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas which are only available to members of the FootClan.
Hopefully, you are still alive and well in your playoffs, FootClan! If you’ve made it this far, that means you are just two victories away from tasting the sweet, sweet success of a #FootClanTitle in 2025…what a Christmas present that would be!
In this week’s mailbag, we are focusing on what really matters and answering a whole load of your Start/Sit questions as we enter the fantasy playoffs semifinals. Miami’s benching of Tua Tagovailoa (rumors in the bushes suggest he is done in South Beach) and the impact on Darren Waller was one of the week’s more popular topics, so we will discuss just what the introduction of Quinn Ewers means for both Waller and Jaylen Waddle in Week 16. We’ll look at a pair of QBs who may hold the key to making your Championship game, and as is now almost customary, we will do our weekly temperature check on Justin Jefferson and his fantasy value (spoiler: it’s “snowing in Vermont” levels of cold)…let’s dive right in!
Question #1 – Start/Sit (Mouth-Watering Matchups Edition)
Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Ballers! Please help me decide which one of these guys to bench this week: Woody Marks, Omarion Hampton, DeVonta Smith, or Michael Wilson – austintatious
Answer: Let’s get the obvious bit out of the way first – if Woody Marks is ruled out before Houston’s clash with the Raiders on Sunday afternoon, then he is the obvious bench candidate…but let’s assume Marks suits up and is fully ready to go – now what?
For me, Michael Wilson is the clear-cut smash start out of this quartet. The third-year receiver has been thriving in recent weeks, thanks in part to the absences of both Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler Murray. The perfect storm of MHJ’s heel issue and the “foot injury” (totally not a benching) of Kyler has seen Wilson (aka Jerry Rice) take over as the team’s leading pass-catcher – ahead of overall TE1 Trey McBride. Wilson’s 67 targets in the five-game spell between Weeks 11 and 15 lead the NFL, with his 535 receiving yards in that time second to only Puka Nacua (592). TL;DR…you are playing him, even if Harrison does make his return.
Now we have some thinking to do! All three of Marks, Hampton, and Smith have plus matchups as we head into Week 16, and of the two RBs, Omarion Hampton has the more favorable opponent, facing off against the Dallas Cowboys, who are ranked 26th against the run on the year. Woody has a slightly tougher task as Houston gets set to host Las Vegas and their 23rd-ranked run D…but the Texans will be at home, and are a massive 14-point favorites against the hapless Raiders. DeVonta Smith will be looking to bounce back in a favorable contest against Washington after back-to-back-to-back disappointments, which saw him finish as the WR39, WR40, and WR51 for fantasy. Houston, L.A., and Philly all have implied team-totals around the 25-point mark, so there is precious little to split this trio there…so how do we decide?
For me, it all comes down to how safe you want to play it in your fantasy semifinals. If you’re favored in your head-to-head and are looking for some solid floor plays – I’m leading on the RBs, but if you are the underdog and are swinging for the fences, I’m plugging in Smith over Marks and hoping that both he and Hampton hit some huge home run plays on the road against their respective NFC East opponents. Marks will see volume, but Hampton is the more explosive player, and if I’m after a high-ceiling performance from one of these backs, I’m placing my bet on the guy drafted in the first round.
Question #2 – Start/Sit (What Have You Done For Me Lately QB Special)
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Yo yiggity yo Ballers! Am I crazy to sit Dak Prescott this week for Brock Purdy after Dak got me this far already? I also have Christian McCaffrey if that makes any difference. – BernieMayne
Answer: Not only are you not being crazy…you’re potentially being low-key smart.
Dak Prescott has carried many a fantasy team to the promised land this season – through fifteen weeks nobody has completed more passes, or thrown for more yards than the Cowboys’ No.4 – with only Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff scoring more TDs through the air…but as we get to the business end of the year, I am very much out on Dak…particularly this week as Dallas face off against a stout Chargers’ defense ranked No.1 against the QB position for fantasy.
The Bolts are allowing a measly 13.7 FPPG to opposing QBs, and after Prescott’s somewhat underwhelming display in the Cowboys’ 26-34 defeat at home to Minnesota last week, my trust in him is waning…especially if the illness that star receiver CeeDee Lamb is suffering from lingers into the weekend. Dem Boys enter the week as slight favorites (-1.5) in what Vegas has slated as the second-highest O/U of the week (49.5), but I anticipate this one not living up to the hype, with Brian Schottenheimer turning to the run game and Javonte Williams in an attempt to keep Dallas’ dead last ranked defense off the field for as much of the game as possible against Justin Herbert and his slew of aerial weapons.
In contrast, San Francisco – despite sitting 3rd in the NFC West – is still in the hunt for that No.1 overall seed in the NFC, a prize that would give them the opportunity to play at home all the way to the Super Bowl in their own backyard. It’s simple for the 49ers – win out and not only will they sit atop their division, but will land the coveted top seeding that gives them an extra week of rest and the luxury of staying put in Santa Clara for as long as it takes. Purdy showed us once again last weekend in the 37-24 win over Tennessee that he can be clinically efficient, completing 77% of his passes for 295 yards and 3 TDs. The 49ers are rounding into form at the best possible time, and a matchup against the Pee River-led Colts is exactly what the Doctor ordered to boost their chances of catching the Seahawks, following an impressive (if not controversial) 38-37 win over the Rams on TNF. Everything is clicking for San Fran, and with George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, as well as a resurgent Jauan Jennings at Purdy’s disposal – he is my overall QB2 on the week behind only Jared Goff at home against the Steelers. Fire up Mr. Irrelevant and enjoy the stack – just pray Brian Robinson and Kyle Juszczyk don’t vulture any scores.
Question #3 – Start/Sit (Please Keep Benching Justin Jefferson Edition)
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Puka Puka, Pokeballers! What. Do. I. Do. With. Justin Jefferson? I advanced to the semifinals with him on my bench, but can I trust him this week over Jaylen Waddle, Emeka Egbuka, or Woody Marks? – It’s Pukachu!
Answer: I feel like Justin Jefferson gets a mention in this column each and every week, and despite either the super-star name value, outstanding positional matchups, or the blind hope that J.J. McCarthy is turning a corner, the advice remains the same time after time…you have to bench him and keep him there.
I believe it was Alfred Einstein that said, “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” and in the case of starting Justin Jefferson in the hope that he may finally put in a decent performance for your fantasy team…Ol’ Alb has hit the nail right on the head. If we want to look at the positives, in Week 15, Jefferson scored just 0.3 fewer fantasy points than he has in his previous two outings combined…unfortunately, the reality is that still only amounted to an infuriating 3.2 points in Half-PPR formats, as the consensus top-5 draft pick once again finished outside the top-75 on the week at the WR position. For those keeping score (and I know every JJ fantasy manager is doing just that), that was the fourth week in a row Jefferson has failed to crack the WR3 ceiling, and the fifth time in his last six games.
Speaking of wideouts who have stunk out the joint for over a month…what has happened to Tampa Bay’s rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka (pronounced “Emeka Eggbeggboo”)? The 19th pick in this year’s NFL Draft has had a remarkable fall from grace following the Bucs’ bye-week, failing to record a top-40 positional finish for five consecutive games – a far cry from his 7/163/1 stat line, which saw him end Week 5 as the WR1 in fantasy scoring. Something is very wrong in West Florida, and despite leading the NFC South, this feels like a team circling the drain, facing off against a divisional rival in the form of Carolina, who will displace the Bucs atop the standings with a win on Sunday afternoon. Egbuka’s 17-game pace through the first five weeks of the year was an eye-wattering 85/1513/17 – compare that to his trajectory in his last five games at 61/656/0, and his fantasy managers’ eyes are full of tears for remarkably different reasons.
I’ve outlined my thoughts on Woody Marks earlier in this article…if he’s active, I’m playing him as a solid low-end RB2 – which last time I checked is a ranking that would score a lot more points than WR77 (yes that’s where Jefferson finished last week, and also yes, it’s his best finish in almost a month). So that just leaves Jaylen Waddle, who – despite being the WR14 on the season so far – hasn’t strung back-to-back WR2 or better performances together since Weeks 5 and 6. The matchup at home to Cincinnati is not ideal for Miami’s clear WR1 (the Bengals rank 2nd against opposing WRs), but arguably more concerning for The Penguin’s fantasy value is the benching of the Dolphins’ $212m franchise QB, Tua Tagovailoa, in favor of 7th round rookie out of Texas – Quinn Ewers.
Who knows how things are going to shake out down in South Beach, but even with the introduction of Ewers, I am still starting Waddle well ahead of Justin Jefferson this week. Keep J.J. on your bench, or even better…landmine him to waivers in the hope of giving a headache to a potential Championship game opponent. Whatever you do, just don’t start him.
Question #4 – Start/Sit (Double TE Special)
Kyle Terada-Imagn Images
Hey Ballers! I have overachieved and made it to the second round of the playoffs. I have both George Kittle and Darren Waller and was considering flexing Waller over R.J. Harvey and Emeka Egbuka…is that a smart decision? – Malding
Answer: Prior to Tua’s benching, this would have been a no-brainer. The Wallerus has been a TD machine this season when healthy (ok, that’s only been about 5.5 games), finding the end zone on no fewer than six times in just over a handful of starts. What makes the veteran TE’s performances even more impressive is how efficient he has been with relatively limited opportunities in this Dolphins’ pass game. The eighth-year pro has been targeted just 26 times this season, hauling in 20 of those for 243-yards and the aforementioned half a dozen TDs…that’s a whopping 30% TD rate across all receptions – if these trends continue…aaaay!
Sadly, with Tua Tagovailoa hitting the pine, the waters become a little murky for the Wallerus, even with the juicy matchup against the worst defense in the league against the TE position. Egbuka will need to battle it out for targets with fully healthy again Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan – the latter returning from a terrifying neck injury which has kept him off the field for almost a full calendar year – but I still prefer him going up against a middle-of-the-pack Panthers defense compared to Waller hoping for looks from the unknown quantity that is Quinn Ewers. It goes without saying that as the lead-rusher on a Broncos team looking for their twelfth victory in-a-row, R.J. Harvey is an auto-start for me. If you really need the upside, then perhaps Waller will provide the safety blanket Ewers may need as Miami hosts the Bengals in a dead-rubber – but outside of De’Von Achane, there’s nobody in aqua and orange I am excited about starting, especially in semifinals week.
It’s time for Rapid Round…
Happy Nasty Boy Season! Do I start Audric Estime, Michael Carter, or Rico Dowdle this week? It’s a Full-PPR league. – ap2011
Answer: Cardinals Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has sided with Mike Wright and Jason Moore, naming Michael Carter the starter for this week’s home matchup against the Falcons – but even with this vote of confidence from the organization’s current commander-in-chief, I’m leaning toward Rico Dowdle. Estime is intriguing, but with only six carries on the season, I can’t trust him in a win-or-go-home citation.
Hey Ballers! Start/Sit question – 2QB league – Josh Allen, Drake Maye, or Jacoby Brissett – krazy19
Answer: The real question here is: “Is Josh Allen fit, healthy, and playing football this weekend?” – if the answer to that is yes…then you start him above all others. Last I checked, the GOAT wasn’t on the Bills’ injury report, so you fire him up. Sure, he’s on the road against one of the league’s leading defenses…but, I just don’t care. There is no way I am benching Allen in the fantasy playoffs.
Does it make me a bad person that I benched the Steelers DST after all of my opponent’s players had played? I was winning by 6 points. – David from the website
Answer: Absolutely not – it makes you a smart person. Team DSTs have scored negative points on no fewer than 36 occasions this season, and although none of those were quite as drastic as -6…the possibility did exist (even if it was against Miami). If you’re leading by a handful of points and your league rules don’t explicitly state you have to start a DST…bench them and enjoy the next round of the playoffs.
Yoyoyoyoyoyoyo Ballerinos! What’s your Super Bowl prediction? – Shmo
Answer: This can be easily categorised into two different answers – the Super Bowl I want, and the Super Bowl I think we’re going to get.
If I were placing a wager, I would be putting my hard-earned cash on the New England Patriots coming up against the Los Angeles Rams – with Drake Maye securing a seventh Lombardi Trophy for Robert Kraft and co.
If I could hand-select a final between the two teams, I want to see them tough it out at Levi’s Stadium in February, it would be the hometown San Francisco 49ers taking on the aforementioned Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills. The last 12 months have already seen Allen marry A-Lister Hailee Steinfeld and announce the upcoming arrival of their first child…why not add a first Super Bowl in franchise history for the Bills to round out the year?
That will do it for this week, FootClan – good luck in your semifinals!