Fantasy Football Saturday Mailbag for Week 14
Good morning Footclan and I hope your weekend has started with a bang! Welcome to the latest edition of The Fantasy Footballers’ Saturday Morning Mailbag! As we do each and every Saturday here at Ballers’ HQ, I take a handful of your questions from The Fantasy Footballers’ Discord server and give you my thoughts and insights ahead of this week’s games! Remember, The Ballers’ Discord is home to the biggest and best online fantasy football community in the world and is your one-stop shop if you’re looking to talk about all things fantasy football. Head over today, register your username, and start interacting with the thousands of members we have waiting to talk ball. There are dozens of dedicated channels for start/sit questions, trade advice, and waiver wire insights, as well as exclusive areas that are only available to you—the loyal members of the Footclan.
This is it Footclan… your final chance to secure those playoff spots! If like me, you’re on the outside looking in, don’t give up hope just yet… it is the time of year for miracles after all. Fingers crossed you were all the lucky winners in this week’s Isaac Guerendo Waiver Wire Sweepstakes, and are now the proud owners of a shiny new starting running back just as we enter the fantasy playoffs. It’s been quite the week for high-profile running back injuries— Guerendo’s emergence comes off the back of 49ers duo Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason succumbing to injury, and as a result, both look set to miss the remainder of the fantasy season. There was also some bad news relating to a certain running back heavily rostered by one of The Ballers, who is now looking highly doubtful to play in a divisional clash this weekend (spoiler: I’m not talking about Andy or Mike). Today we’re talking crucial running back start/sits, upside playoff QBs, as well as a way too early look at 2025’s potential first-round draft picks. All that and more—so let’s dive right in!
Question #1 – Start/Sit (Jason’s Eternal Sadness Edition)
Hey Ballers! Do I have permission to bench Breece Hall for Bucky Irving and Rico Dowdle this week? – JasonsBlackPrius
Answer: I was halfway through writing a wonderfully thought-out answer to this one—how Breece Hall, despite finishing as the overall RB43 last week, was still a solid RB2 play this weekend against a relatively generous Miami Dolphins run D… and then the news broke that Breece was not seen at Friday’s practice, and will officially enter the weekend as DOUBTFUL. So, instead, I am going to assume that (as Andy, Mike, and Jason have reminded us all for weeks now) you have Hall’s high-value insurance policy, Braelon Allen, stashed on your bench. Oh, you do, excellent… then I’ll continue.
If Hall doesn’t go—and it’s looking increasingly unlikely that he will—the Jets’ fourth-round rookie pick, former Wisconsin Badger, Braelon Allen will be in line for the biggest workload of his young career. Allen will be joined by fellow rookie Isaiah Davis, who with a career-high four opportunities last weekend against the Seahawks, found the end zone for his maiden score as a professional. Despite Davis’ uptick in usage, I’m not concerned that he will have too big an impact on Allen’s potential breakout—after all, Allen has been deployed as the de facto backup to Hall all year, and I don’t see that changing now that the Jets’ number-one guy looks set for a spell on the sidelines.
So, where does Allen fit into the mix heading into Gang Green’s Week 14 road game against divisional rivals Miami down in South Beach? Well, despite being ranked 23rd against running backs in terms of EPA on the season, the Dolphins have only given up one solitary double-digit fantasy day to opposing rushers since Week 8—and 9.4 of Josh Jacobs’ 19.7 fantasy points in Week 13 came in the receiving game. With Miami averaging 27 PPG since Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8 and the Jets only hitting that mark once all season, the run may get abandoned fairly quickly if Tua starts airing it out back home in the South Florida sunshine. Allen has proven he can be a factor in the passing game with 12 catches for 97 yards and a score so far this year, and with the Jets entering this one as 5.5-point underdogs—that’s likely where he’ll return value for those who start him on Sunday.
I’m slotting him in as a low-end RB2, behind the likes of Chuba Hubbard and Tyrone Tracy, but ahead of Nick Chubb, Travis Etienne Jr, and Jason Moore’s 10-point king, Jaylen Warren. With Bucky cracking the top 10 this week and Mr. Smooth Rico Dowdle a high-end RB2, there’s no chance I am starting Allen ahead of either… especially after their respective RB1 and RB4 performances last time out. Allen can most certainly be started—but not ahead of Bucky and Rico.
Question #2 – Fantasy Ethics (Know Your League’s Rules Edition)
Bye-pocalypse ethical quandary. I’ve locked up playoffs and have nothing to play for. In order to field a full roster I would have to drop players who are on bye. My match may impact my opponent’s fate (and others). Is it fair to leave roster spots unfilled? – Trogdor
Answer: Trogdor, you’ve hit the nail on the head here with your use of the word ethical. Every single year we hear stories of fantasy managers making somewhat questionable roster moves in an attempt to secure themselves a better draft pick for next season, or land their team a more favorable opponent in the playoffs—and every single year these kinds of actions come back to haunt them when things don’t quite work out the way they had hoped.
First things first, you have to obey your league’s rules. If there’s something in there that states all teams must field a full roster of starting players… then you’re in a pickle. If however, the only stipulation is that those roster spots have to be filled—then you are perfectly entitled to start players who are on a bye week if it’s to the benefit of your team.
I am going to assume that the players on your roster with a Week 14 bye are guys who you really don’t want to drop—I mean, if we’re talking about players such as Lamar Jackson, Courtland Sutton, Nico Collins, or Joe Mixon, then of course you’re going to want to hold on to them in your push for a #FootclanTitle—so why should you drop them if you don’t have to?
I do feel for those in your league who may miss out on a playoff spot were you to lose with a “weakened” team… but any manager relying on another team to lose in order to make the post-season should look inward at their own squad before placing any blame on others. At the end of the day, you have to do what’s best for your team, and if that means starting players who are on a bye week to ensure they remain on your roster for the playoffs starting next week… then so be it. Fingers crossed you still get the W this week regardless and go on to win that title!
Question #3 – Playoff Primer (QB Special)
Do I keep Kyler Murray or Bo Nix for the playoffs? I can’t keep both – bearsyo85
Answer: This is a tricky one bearsyo85, and the answer for me is… it depends. Andy, Mike, and Jason talked about this very tandem on Wednesday’s show and how—in an ideal world—you would roster both over the next few weeks… but only until the fantasy playoffs begin.
As we enter Week 14, this is the final matchup in most leagues before the wildcard round of the playoffs gets underway. If you’re facing a win and in scenario, then obviously with Bo Nix and the Broncos being on a bye this weekend… you keep Kyler. However, if you’ve already secured that spot and are planning ahead—that’s where things get a little tricky.
Week 15 sees both quarterbacks treated to home matchups, with Arizona hosting New England and Denver welcoming Indianapolis to Mile High. The Patriots and Colts are neck and neck in PAE to opposing QBs, both giving up 1.2 PPG over the league average. The very early sportsbooks have the Cardinals as seven-point favorites, with an implied team total of 25 points, while the Broncos also enter next weekend expected to win, but only as a four-point favorite. The game in Colorado has an O/U of just 43.5, giving Bo Nix and Co. a far less attractive implied team total of 20 points… advantage Kyler.
The final two games of the fantasy season see both Kyler and Nix on the road. Arizona travels to Carolina in Week 16, before facing the Rams in Los Angeles—the Broncos, they head to L.A. a week earlier than the Cardinals to take on the Chargers, then head northeast to Ohio for a clash with the Bengals in Week 17. The earlier matchups again favor Kyler, with the Panthers ranking 27th against fantasy QBs on the season so far compared to the Chargers at eighth… but were you to make it to the championship game, that’s where I’d start to sweat it.
The Bengals have truly been a gift to opposing QBs in recent weeks—in their previous five games, Cincinnati has allowed weekly quarterback finishes of QB1, QB29*, QB2, QB8, and QB2—with that last one being a 414-yard and three touchdown passing game from Mr. Unlimited, Russell Wilson… woof. I’m not saying Kyler can’t get it done against the Rams, but I am saying Bo Nix will get it done in southwest Ohio. If you have any kind of stack with either quarterback, that would help break the tie for me, but if you’re having to take only one in isolation… I’m riding with the rookie and swinging for the fences!
Question #4 – Start/Sit (Week 14 Flex Options)
Ho ho ho Ballers! It’s “win and in” this week, can I flex Isiah Pacheco? It would be over one of Rome Odunze, Darnell Mooney, or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – McBride of Frankenstein
Answer: Thanks for the question McBride of Frankenstein. For me, this isn’t a question of can you flex Pacheco over one of these guys, it’s which one of these guys are you sitting—because out of those four names, the twinkle-toed Kansas City back is the first name locked into my roster.
It was a relatively unremarkable first week back for Pacheco following his nine-week absence after breaking his fibula in Week 2 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The third-year rusher picked up where he left off on his return to the field, leading the Chiefs’ backfield with a respectable 44 yards on his seven carries, averaging 6.3 Y/C on the day. In contrast, Kareem Hunt—who was a capable fill-in at the position during his teammates’ spell on the sidelines—could only muster 15 yards on an equal number of rushing opportunities. With KC only one game ahead of the 10-2 Buffalo Bills in the race for the number one seed in the AFC, Andy Reid will want to lean on his most dependable weapons in the coming weeks—and for me, that means a lot more Pacheco against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend… but if he’s in, which one of the three wideouts above is relegated to your bench on Sunday?
If we are going purely on recent form, how can you not start the touchdown machine that is Tennessee’s Nick Westbrook-Ikhine? The run this man is on is the stuff of legend—years from now fantasy managers will gather their nearest and dearest around and tell tales of the season that NWI averaged a receiving touchdown every game as the WR2, on a 3-9 Titans team led by Bananarama himself, Mr. Will Levis. Jokes aside, removing the TDs, Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging three receptions for 60 yards over the last five weeks. With the floor on offer from starting Pacheco, I’m willing to take a swing with one of my wideouts… why not the guy, who alongside Ja’Marr Chase, has scored the most touchdowns at the position since Week 5—he’s in.
So, now we have to decide which wide receiver fills the final spot—is it the one who put up only 3.5 fantasy points last weekend, or the one who put up only 3.5 fantasy points last weekend… a tough choice. Entering Week 11, the Atlanta Falcons’ Darnell Mooney was the overall WR10 on the year and on a 17-game pace of 79 receptions for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns. In the two games since, he’s hauled in only five catches for 47 scoreless yards… gross. Mooney’s stat line of late may not make for attractive reading, but at least he has been startable for most of the year—unlike Chicago Bears’ rookie Rome Odunze. While the entire Bears passing offense was practically unstartable through the first 11 weeks of the year, these past two games have seen major signs of life with Caleb Williams supporting not one, but two top-10 wide receivers in each of the defeats to Minnesota and Detroit. Unfortunately for Rome Odunze managers—on both those occasions it was Keenan Allen (WR9/WR5) and D.J. Moore (WR3/WR8) who had bumper fantasy days, and not their boy Rome (WR50/WR74). Sure, Kirk Cousins has started to look like a 36-year-old who tore his Achilles less than 12 months ago, and he may just be about to lose his starting job to Michael Penix… but I am taking his WR2 every day of the week over the third, possibly fourth choice target for Caleb Williams. Start Mooney in Captain Kirk’s revenge game against the Vikings and leave Rome on your bench.
Question #5 – Drop It Like It’s Hot (Chris Olave Special)
In a league with no IR spot…is Chris Olave droppable? I’m in a “must win” this week in order to make the playoffs and am dealing with bye-week issues. – OjoDumeh
Answer: Just this week in my League of Record, another manager was boasting about how his pickup of Chris Olave was going to be a “league-winning” move, and you know what Footclan, as much as I despise ever admitting that he may be right… this time won’t be any different, because Chris Olave will be winning nobody a fantasy football championship in 2024.
This is not an anti-Olave take, I love the guy, and when healthy, I think he is one of the most explosive wideouts in the National Football League—but as I see it, there is a less than 1% chance of him being back on the field this season—and with that, can be safely dropped in non-keeper formats. The super-talented third-year wideout suffered his second concussion of the season after sustaining a crunching hit in the Saints’ Week 9 defeat in Carolina and was subsequently placed on injured reserve in the days that followed. Given Olave’s history of concussions (this was the fourth documented concussion of his career) and New Orleans’ rather precarious 4-8 record on the year—it would be foolish, if not potentially dangerous for the 24-year-old superstar to suit up again for the Saints in what is already a lost season.
If Interim Head Coach Darren Rizzi a.k.a. The Rizzler can lead his team to a victory in the Big Apple against the Giants this Sunday, the Saints will still only have a 2% chance of making the postseason… assuming other results go their way. Like all football fans, I want to see Chris Olave back in the black and gold as soon as possible—but all things considered, that may not be until 2025. You can go ahead and drop him and stash one of this week’s best waiver wire pickups on your bench.
Get well soon Chris!
Question #6 – 2025 Fantasy Draft (Way Too Early Round 1 Projections)
Heyo Ballstars! If the draft was today, who are your first 12 draft picks? – Oatmeal Man
Answer: A tip of the cap to you Oatmeal Man, it’s never too early to start planning ahead for next year’s draft (well, unless you’re still fighting for a playoff spot – then maybe prioritize that). Let’s assume we’re in the Ballers’ preferred scoring format of half-PPR with 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE & 1 FLEX spot to fill with skill players.
- Ja’Marr Chase (WR1)
- Saquon Barkley (RB1)
- Bijan Robinson (RB2)
- Justin Jefferson (WR2)
- Nico Collins (WR3)
- Puka Nacua (WR4)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB3)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR5)
- CeeDee Lamb (WR6)
- De’Von Achane (RB4)
- Joe Mixon (RB5)
- Derrick Henry (RB6)
I can’t bring myself to include Brock Bowers in my first-round selections just yet… but a lot can and will change over the offseason. I have of course excluded Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara… all guys who definitely have a shot at cracking that top 12 come September. Who knows, maybe Ashton Jeanty will find his way onto the list… let’s see what the NFL draft in April has in store for us!