Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 17 Matchups to Consider

The week we’ve been dreaming of playing in since our first mock draft of the offseason has finally come – CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK! After 16 grueling weeks of ups and downs, it all comes down to one game. One lineup. One set of decisions remains to decide whether you finish in first place or are the first-place loser. For the final time in the fantasy season, I’ll take a look through each position and look at matchups that could be the difference this week!

As always, make use of the Start/Sit Tool on the website, ask for advice on Discord, or reach out to me via Twitter: @KurtKnowsBest.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield (TB) vs New Orleans

Despite some doubts heading into the season, Baker Mayfield has really been a solid streaming option for fantasy managers. Through 15 games, Mayfield has been a top-12 QB seven times and has scored over 20+ fantasy points in four-point scoring as many times as Patrick Mahomes. For the most part, Mayfield is taking advantage of good passing matchups and has shown he’s capable of having huge games when he can get into the end zone through the air. Mayfield has thrown at least two TD passes in all but six games this season.

If Mayfield is going to be a contributor to fantasy championships this week, he will have a tough task ahead against the Saints. Despite not having star cornerback Marshon Lattimore since Week 10, New Orleans has still been one of the top pass defenses in the league. The Saints have allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards on the season and the fifth-lowest yard per pass attempt. Over their last five games, New Orleans has allowed just one top-12 QB finish and has only given up 20+ fantasy points to opposing QBs four times this season. For fantasy managers playing this weekend, it’s worth weighing other options before locking Mayfield into your lineup.

Kurt would prefer to play: QB11 – Justin Fields vs Atlanta

Kyler Murray (ARI) at Philadelphia

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Ranking	Andy	Jason	Mike
QB12	QB12	QB12	QB12

Since his return from injury, it’s been a rocky road for Kyler Murray when it comes to fantasy football. In his six starts this season, Murray has only finished inside the top-12 QBs three times but has scored 20+ each time he’s hit that mark. Murray’s use of his legs has continued to provide a safe floor for his fantasy production, but he hasn’t found the end zone on the ground since Week 12 which has limited his fantasy ceiling. The key for Murray, as with any mobile QB, will be making use of his legs enough to provide more upside for fantasy managers.

The Philadelphia defense has provided plenty of opportunity for fantasy production throughout the season but presents a tough matchup to predict for opposing QBs. While the Eagles have allowed the seventh-most passing yards and second-most passing TDs this season, they’ve been better against opposing fantasy QBs over their last three games, not allowing a single top-12 finish. In the five games prior from Weeks 8-13, Philadelphia allowed four QB finishes of QB2 or higher, so the potential is still there for a big day from Murray. In such an important week, fantasy managers should be looking for as much upside as possible and should have Murray in their lineups for Week 17.

Kurt would play Murray over: QB13 – Tua Tagovailoa at Baltimore

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) vs Cincinnati

In what could be very fitting irony, Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be the late-season hero that emerges from the Chiefs’ backfield in 2023. This time last season, Edwards-Helaire was on the sidelines watching Isiah Pacheco take over the rushing attempts while Jerick McKinnon went completely nuclear rattling off five top-24 RB finishes to end the fantasy season. Fast forward to 2023 and McKinnon is on IR while Pacheco’s status is in doubt after suffering a concussion in their loss to the Raiders on Christmas Day, making Edwards-Helaire a hot waiver wire pickup this week. While CEH has been fairly irrelevant so far this year, he did step in Weeks 14 and 15 for RB31 and RB9 finishes seeing 36% of his opportunities in those two games. 

What’s intriguing about Edwards-Helaire this week is the potential to have the backfield completely to himself this weekend with a great matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards on the season and is allowing a rushing TD on 4.2% of rushing attempts. Over their last seven games, the Bengals have allowed top-24 RB finishes six times, and the one time they didn’t was because Zack Moss got hurt and Trey Sermon only had half a game to finish as the RB25. If you were lucky enough to already have CEH on your roster or have the FAAB to get him off waivers, he should be a lock into your lineup as long as Pacheco isn’t back.

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Kurt would play Edwards-Helaire over: RB29 – Javonte Williams vs LA Chargers

Ty Chandler (MIN) vs Green Bay

The experience of Ty Chandler having the Vikings’ backfield to himself wasn’t as fruitful in Week 16 for fantasy managers. Chandler has seen more than 50% of snaps just three times this season but only finished inside the top 24 once when he’s gotten that much opportunity. Possibly the biggest difference in Chandler’s fantasy output last week was his lack of involvement in the passing game where he didn’t see a single target. Chandler has been productive in the passing game since he started seeing more work in the offense, averaging 6.1 yards per target which ranks 15th in the league among RBs with at least 15 receptions.

If Chandler is going to get back on track for fantasy managers, taking on the Green Bay defense is a good place to be with such high fantasy stakes at hand. Not only are the Packers one of the worst run defenses in the league, but they just ended a four-game stretch allowing 20+ fantasy points to opposing teams’ RBs. Over their last five games, Green Bay has allowed a top-20 RB finish each week including three top-10 RBs. With the fifth-highest expected point total this week, fantasy managers should see Chandler as an RB2 play with RB1 upside.

Kurt would play Chandler over: RB16 – Aaron Jones at Minnesota

Zamir White (LV) at Indianapolis

Talk about making the most of opportunity. After receiving only 20 carries all season, over the last two weeks Zamir White has toted the rock 39 times for 214 yards and a TD while Josh Jacobs has been injured. While it hasn’t always been pretty, the new-look Raiders seem extremely committed to running the ball and White has been a strong reason why they’ve won their last two games. The biggest factor for White this week is completely dependent on the health of Josh Jacobs. Jacobs missed practice again on Wednesday, so there’s a chance White is the main back again this Sunday for Las Vegas which could provide a huge fantasy opportunity.

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When it comes to teams to target with opposing RBs, the Colts are near the top of the list. Indianapolis has allowed the second-most rushing TDs this season and opposing fantasy RBs are averaging 24.2 points per game against them. The Colts’ defense has allowed 15 top-24 RB finishes this season in total and at least one in 12 straight games. Only twice this year have the Colts not allowed a top-24 RB and that was all the way back in Weeks 2 and 3. If White is the main RB this week again for the Raiders, he is a must-play during championship week.

Kurt would play White over: RB35 – Antonio Gibson vs San Francisco

Wide Receivers

George Pickens (PIT) at Seattle

Last week gave fantasy managers who believe in the talent of George Pickens the little bit of hope they need to hang on for at least another half-season. Pickens went completely nuclear, setting a career-high in receiving yards along with his first multi-TD game in the NFL. What’s frustrating about Pickens is his big day marked only his fourth top-24 WR finish of the season, all of which have only come when he surpasses 100 receiving yards since he’s averaging just 3.7 receptions per game. What’s tough for fantasy is that Pickens seems to rely completely on big plays for fantasy relevance which is what makes his floor so disastrously low.

While the big game from Pickens may be easy to chase, duplicating his performance against the Seahawks may leave fantasy managers disappointed. Seattle’s defense has given up plenty of big WR performances this season but they have improved down the stretch of the season. Over the last two weeks, Seattle hasn’t allowed 200 yards in either game and hasn’t given up a top-24 WR in either game. There’s something to be said about fantasy managers making a “boom” play in championship weeks, but unless you’re a heavy underdog there should be better options to consider over Pickens.

Kurt would prefer to play: WR30 – Brandin Cooks vs Detroit

Rashid Shaheed (NO) at Tampa Bay

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Ranking	Andy	Jason	Mike
WR37	WR38	WR35	WR37

When it comes to “boom” plays, they don’t get more hit-or-miss than Rashid Shaheed. The Saints’ second-year receiver has very little in between in his fantasy output, either finishing with more than 15 points or less than five points in all but one game this season. In games where Shaheed has been good for fantasy, he’s scored a TD and is averaging 31 yards per catch so he’s completely dependent on getting behind the defense for a big play.

If there’s a team to make a bet for a WR to be able to make big plays against, it’s the Buccaneers’ defense. Tampa Bay has allowed the most passing yards in the league and 7.6 yards per pass attempt this season. In just the last three weeks, the Buccaneers have allowed a top-10 WR finish in each game. While Shaheed is clearly not the top receiving option for the Saints, he could still bring value for fantasy managers as a flex play in such a good matchup this week.

Kurt would play Shaheed over: WR38 – Gabe Davis vs New England

Demarcus Robinson (LAR) at NY Giants

It’s been quite the month for Demarcus Robinson in the Rams’ offense. After seeing just five targets all season, Robinson has finished as a top-24 WR for four straight weeks. What’s helped fuel Robinson’s hot streak has been the four TDs he’s caught in consecutive weeks and the 56 yards per week he’s averaged. Even as the third option in this Rams offense and Tutu Atwell back in the mix, Robinson has shown that he’s a reliable fantasy flex option who can deliver.

Getting a matchup with the NY Giants could be the path for a fifth-straight top-24 finish for Robinson this week. The Giants rank as the fourth-best matchup for fantasy WRs, though you wouldn’t be able to tell over their last handful of games. In their last five matchups, New York’s defense has just allowed two top-24 WRs, but that comes after allowing eight WRs to hit that mark in their previous six games. With the Rams’ offense averaging 31 points over the last four games, Robinson should have plenty of opportunity to make a fantasy impact again for fantasy managers.

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Kurt would play Robinson over: WR39 – Josh Downs vs Las Vegas

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts (ATL) at Chicago

Just like we all predicted, Kyle Pitts seems to be having a late-season surge to get the hype train rolling again before the offseason. Pitts has finished as a top-seven TE or higher in two of his last three games, which matches the number of times he’s hit that mark in the rest of the season combined. Unfortunately, it seems like Pitts is dependent on getting into the end zone for any real fantasy relevance. Only once this season has he finished inside the top-12 TEs without catching a TD. What’s encouraging about Pitts, despite the high aspirations fantasy managers may have had for him, is the 12.7 yards per reception he’s averaging, which is fifth among TEs this season with at least 15 receptions.

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There should be opportunity for Pitts to continue his run this week against the Chicago defense that ranks as the fifth-best against TEs. While the numbers don’t look great for the Bears against TEs, they’ve actually been pretty hit or miss when it comes to fantasy. Over their last eight games, Chicago has only allowed four top-12 TE finishes, and each of those came with the TE scoring a TD, which has also been the key for Pitts. For fantasy managers having to decide if Pitts is worth a spot in their championship lineup, it will all come down to whether or not they believe Pitts can get into the end zone.

Kurt would prefer to play: TE16 – Chigoziem Okonkwo at Houston

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs New England

The hot streak finally cooled off for Dalton Kincaid in the Buffalo offense. After finishing as a top-12 TE for five straight weeks, Kincaid hasn’t finished higher than the top-19 since Week 12. Kincaid’s decline in fantasy relevance can be correlated to a few things: the change at offensive coordinator in Buffalo and the return of Dawson Knox from injury. The Bills changed to Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady after Week 10, and since then, Kincaid is averaging just 22 yards per game and hasn’t caught a TD. Likewise, Knox’s return from injury only made things worse for Kincaid and he hasn’t played more than 50% of snaps in back-to-back weeks.

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To make matters worse for fantasy managers who invested in Kincaid, he’s got an extremely tough matchup with the Patriots this week. New England’s defense has put the clamps on opposing TEs this season, only allowing one TD to an opposing TE all year, and that came all the way back in Week 5. Over their last six games, the Patriots’ defense has allowed a combined 214 receiving yards to opposing TEs, for an average of just 35.7 yards per game. While it may be tough to ignore the potential that Kincaid has going forward, fantasy managers should be looking elsewhere in such a pivotal matchup this week.

Kurt would prefer to play: TE11 – Dalton Schultz vs Tennessee