Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 14

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 14!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE)
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

  • Regardless of the matchup or quarterback situation, Alvin Kamara is almost always guaranteed to finish as an RB1 because of his versatile usage in the Saints offense. Since returning from a suspension, Kamara has been an RB1 in my Expected Points model in seven of nine games, accounting for nearly 35% of the Saints’ opportunities. Part of what makes him such a safe running back is the heavy usage in the passing game, participating on 55% of the routes and averaging an elite 33% targets per route run. In Week 14, Kamara gets one of the most favorable matchups for a running back. The Panthers have allowed the second-most, schedule-adjusted points while giving up the most rushing touchdowns (17) and sixth-most receiving touchdowns (3) to the running back position. Combine his elite usage with this favorable matchup and Kamara has a legitimate opportunity to finish as the overall RB1 this week.

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