Fantasy Court: The Case For DK Metcalf (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Don’t forget to check out The Case AGAINST DK Metcalf for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Court is back in session! The defendant DK Metcalf finds himself sporting some new colors this year after spending the first six years of his career in Seattle, and he’s being portrayed as a fantasy villain after a down year in 2024. Metcalf finished last season as the WR31 in half-PPR scoring, his worst finish since his rookie season, which has him slipping into the 5th round in many fantasy drafts. If we dig deeper into his numbers from last season, we’ll find that he was on his typical WR1/2 pace through seven weeks before suffering a knee injury that seemed to hamper him the rest of the way. His early-season averages of 12.6 fantasy points per game on 8.7 targets fell to 8.7 points on 5.9 targets after returning from the two-game injury absence.
Metcalf was traded to Pittsburgh this offseason for a second-round pick, and he walks into a situation where he’s the clear No. 1 WR on the team thanks to the departure of George Pickens. Metcalf is currently being drafted as the 20th WR off the board, an indictment on the talent and situation of a player who has finished inside the top 20 four times in his six-year career. In this article, I will defend Metcalf and shut down any claims that he’s being overdrafted in the late-fourth/early-fifth round.
Talent
Any case to be made about the defendant should begin with the fact that he is an awesome football player. At 27 years old, he’s still in the prime of his career, and his athleticism remains off the charts. People are well aware of Metcalf’s measurables, but for the sake of this case, we will highlight them here. At 6’4, 229 pounds and running a 4.33-second 40-yard dash, he possesses both elite size and elite speed, two metrics that are pretty important for an NFL WR. Prosecution will argue that being athletic is great, but it doesn’t always translate to fantasy success.
Let’s look at DK’s production and what he’s done with that athleticism so far in his career.
Outside of his rookie season and an injury-dampened 2024 campaign, Metcalf has never finished outside the top 18 in fantasy. I see that as his floor this year in an offense where he will be featured early and often.
Target Competition
As I mentioned above, incumbent Steelers’ WR1 George Pickens is gone, leaving names like Calvin Austin III, Robert Woods, and Roman Wilson to compete with Metcalf for targets. Of course, we know offensive coordinator Arthur Smith loves a two-TE set, but the good news for Metcalf is that he will still be on the field for those. Pickens’ 7.4 vacated targets per game may not seem like much, but let’s focus on his market share. His 49.4% of Pittsburgh’s WR points was good for 8th in the league. In other words, Pickens dominated that WR room last season, and Metcalf figures to slot right into that role. The question will be whether or not the team’s passing volume comes up this year. I think it will, thanks to the new QB at the helm. I call my next witness – Aaron Rodgers – to the stand.
Aaron Rodgers
Contrary to the Steelers’ low-volume passing attack, Rodgers’ former team, the New York Jets, finished 5th in the league in passing attempts last year. One thing we know about Rodgers is that he loves to be in control, so I expect him to influence this Pittsburgh offense toward significantly higher passing volume in 2025. Another thing we know about Rodgers is that he heavily targets his top WR, and he does so with success. In weeks 1-9 last season, Garrett Wilson was the WR3 operating as Rodgers’ top target. Then, from Week 9 on, after Davante Adams was traded to the Jets and emerged as Rodgers’ new favorite, he was the WR5. There’s nobody outside of Metcalf on Pittsburgh’s roster who profiles as an Alpha, and this hyper-concentration of targets is going to bode well for his fantasy success. If there’s a concern for Metcalf this year, it’s that Rodgers will beg Pittsburgh’s front office to bring one of his former Packers WRs to town. Seriously, though, Rodgers’ WR1s tend to get hyper-targeted and produce (see Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson), and that’s good news for DK Metcalf.
Closing Argument
In closing, your honor, DK Metcalf possesses an elite skill set and a pedigree of fantasy success. In addition to his talent, his situation with Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh makes him a lock to be an absolute target hog this season. I will be continuing to smash the draft button on DK Metcalf in the fifth round, and I’d recommend that everyone in this courthouse do the same.