Fantasy Court: The Case Against De’Von Achane in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court Series. Don’t forget to check out The Case for De’Von Achane by Blaise Winn for his opposing view.
Opening Statement
Good morning, Your Honor, members of the jury, and welcome to another edition of Fantasy Court. Throughout this trial, I will present compelling evidence and a clear narrative that will substantiate my claim beyond any doubt. I am confident that you, the jury, and the fantasy court as a whole will see the truth in my case and deliver a fair and just verdict. Thank you for your attention.
Who would dare question the value of a player with De’Von Achane‘s unparalleled speed and explosiveness? While it might seem unthinkable, I am fully prepared to argue that this promising running back has more red flags than many realize before anointing him a league-winner for the upcoming season. After a stellar rookie year where he averaged over 16 fantasy points per game, Achane has become a rising star in the fantasy football community, with his ADP soaring into the second round this year. He made a name for himself in Week 3 of last season, exploding for 49.30 fantasy points, the highest by any player on the season. Despite a few other standout performances, Achane only played 11 games and was notably inconsistent, often due to unpredictable volume.
Comparable prospects for Achane are scarce. At just 5’9” and entering the NFL at under 190 lbs, he falls well below the typical size thresholds for successful RB1s in fantasy football. This forces him to rely on an exceptionally high-efficiency rate, which may not be sustainable. While his blazing speed and big-play potential have often compensated for his size limitations, there is a valid concern that he may not be built to withstand a full season of heavy usage. Although his ability to hit a home run on any given play is undeniable, it is worth questioning whether it is wise to pay a premium cost for that kind of power if you are swinging with a bat that is on the verge of breaking at any moment.
Itty Bitty Boy
John McCall/ Getty Images
Despite reports that Achane has been working to add muscle this offseason, his 5’9” stature and approximate 190-pound weight fall short of the typical size for NFL running backs. History has seen many smaller running backs excel in college only to struggle with the demands of the pro game. That said, Achane has already proven himself as an athletic outlier who can defy size limitations, thanks to his exceptional speed and contact balance. He was also fortunate to be drafted by a team and coach who can maximize his unique talents.
However, despite a seemingly perfect setup last year, including an ideal draft situation and highly successful on-field performance, Achane’s size still raises concerns about his ability to handle an RB1 workload. Even in his standout games last season, he played fewer than 65% of snaps in every game he was active. Achane ranked 55th amongst all running backs in snaps, 47th in carries, and had only four games with a snap share above 50%. He had five games with double-digit carries, but his overall usage was inconsistent, forcing him to make the most of limited opportunities. While he might see more volume in his second season, there are legitimate concerns about whether his body can handle the increased workload.
Achane struggled with numerous injuries as a rookie, which was not entirely unexpected given his size. He missed the first game of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in August, a concern that initially appeared more severe when he had to be carted off the field during a preseason game. After a breakout performance in Week 3, he played only two more games before suffering a more significant knee injury in Week 5, which landed him on IR until after the team’s Week 10 bye. In his Week 11 return, he reinjured the same knee, forcing him to miss the remainder of that game and the following week. Although he did not miss any more games for the rest of the season, he continued to battle toe and rib injuries, which hampered his consistency to finish the year. Despite Raheem Mostert missing a few games toward the end of the season, Achane still averaged just over 12 touches per game in the final five weeks.
In the final five games of the regular season, Achane ranked as the RB27 on average, scoring 11.04 fantasy points per game. However, if you exclude his Week 17 performance, his average drops to just 8.38 fantasy points per game. This underscores the volatility in his fantasy value, as his scoring heavily relies on breakaway touchdowns, making his floor relatively unstable.
While none of these injuries are expected to impact his availability for the upcoming season, his rookie year injury history is concerning. The main issue is that there is little reason to believe his injury risk will decrease with his slight frame raising doubts about his durability. Labeling a player as injury-prone can sometimes be unfair, given the unpredictability of injuries. However, considering his size and the toll of his rookie season, it is hard to find many players at the position who pose a higher risk. If he is to receive a heavier workload, something his second-round ADP suggests fantasy managers are hoping for, there is a valid question of whether his smaller frame can withstand it.
Unsustainable Efficiency
It is not a stretch to claim that Achane just produced the most efficient season by a rookie running back in NFL history. If you are drafting him this season expecting the same level of efficiency he displayed in his rookie year, you are in for a disappointment. Last year, Achane was extraordinarily efficient, maximizing nearly every opportunity. Among 50 running backs with 100+ carries, he ranked first in yards per carry (7.77), first in EPA per rush (0.32), and first in yards after contact per attempt (3.29). His efficiency extended to the receiving game, where he averaged an incredible 9.5 yards after the catch per reception. While his big-play ability is here to stay, these averages are unsustainable and primed for significant regression. Achane scored 11 total touchdowns last season, with two from 65+ yards out, further underscoring areas ripe for regression. Scoring 11 touchdowns on only 130 touches is an incredible statistic unlikely to be repeated, even for a player with Achane’s explosive potential. Although he profiles as a player capable of volatile boom weeks and big plays, expecting a repeat of last year’s efficiency is unrealistic.
Over the last 5 years, top-7 fantasy RBs average 20.0 touches per game. Only one was under 15.5 touches per game. Zero under 14.0.
De'Von Achane averaged 12.2 touches per game over his last five full games. That was with Raheem Mostert sitting out of two of those games.
+ Mike…
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 5, 2024
Returning to the notion of Achane taking on a larger role with more weekly opportunities, he presents a compelling dilemma. Even in an ideal scenario where his small frame withstands a heavier workload, a decline in efficiency is almost inevitable. With increased volume and a larger sample size, significant regression is unavoidable. If Achane’s role mirrors last season, he will still receive some valuable manufactured touches but will rely heavily on splash plays to reach his fantasy ceiling each week. This type of boom-or-bust volatility is not what you typically want when investing highly valuable second-round draft capital.
Team Market Share Report:
| Player | GP | Rush Pts% | Rush Att% | Rush Yd% | Rush TD% | Rec Tgt% | Rec% | Rec Yd% | Rec TD% |
| Raheem Mostert | 15 | 52.6 | 58.4 | 52.1 | 69.2 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 11.1 |
| De’Von Achane | 11 | 45.8 | 37.5 | 50.3 | 42.1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 16.7 |
Unlike most running backs drafted in the second round of fantasy leagues who have clear control of their backfields, it is still unclear if Achane is even the 1A in his. Despite his age, Raheem Mostert continues to defy the odds, coming off a career year where he averaged 13.9 carries per game compared to Achane’s 10.2. Mostert also led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns and is expected to handle the bulk of the goal-line work in 2024. The Dolphins’ decision to re-sign Mostert to a two-year deal worth up to $9 million signals their intention to maintain his prominent role. Additionally, the team drafted another speedy back in Jaylen Wright, who brings good size to the mix, suggesting a potential three-headed monster in Miami’s backfield. Bringing in Wright might not raise immediate concerns, but as the fifth running back selected in this year’s draft, he could be Miami’s insurance policy against Achane’s durability issues.
#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on the RB depth chart and having two RBs listed as co-starters:
“Who says we have to stop at two? Maybe we can just have four. I think you have to let the players determine who gets the ball and how frequently and how much they’re in the game.” pic.twitter.com/YW2g2r0ttz
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 12, 2024
With more reliable backs like Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Isiah Pacheco, James Cook, and Joe Mixon being drafted in the same range as Achane (and most of them after), why gamble on a player who is not the clear RB1 in his offense every week? There are also numerous elite options at other positions such as Josh Allen and Travis Kelce to consider in this draft range. While Achane’s upside is irrefutable, the risk he carries seems far greater than other options at a similar ADP.
Closing Statement
Despite acknowledging that De’Von Achane’s potential is undeniable, he is a much riskier pick than others available in the same draft range this year. His smaller frame makes him one of the league’s highest injury risks, as demonstrated by the string of setbacks that derailed his rookie season. Moreover, his weekly workload is far too unpredictable for a running back expected to justify second-round draft capital. Achane is a talented player capable of delivering standout performances, as his flashes of brilliance as a rookie show. However, his current ADP is simply too high given the inherent risks. Fantasy managers must carefully weigh risk against reward. While Achane offers a high ceiling, the red flags (including injury concerns and an uncertain weekly role) are too significant to overlook this early in drafts.
Safer, more stable alternatives exist at Achane’s ADP in 2024, with players who also provide considerable upside without the same level of volatility. Choosing Achane over these options is like passing up a dependable vehicle for a flashy sports car with a faulty engine and no airbags or seatbelts. The thrill might be there briefly, but it is more likely to end in disaster. Ultimately, drafting Achane at his current ADP is a gamble with too much potential downside. Fantasy success often hinges on mitigating risk, especially in the early rounds of drafts. Achane’s situation is a prime example of a risk not worth taking.