Fantasy Court: The Case Against Dalton Kincaid in 2024 (Fantasy Football)
This article is part of the annual Fantasy Court series. Be sure to check out The Case FOR Dalton Kincaid by Aaron Larson for the opposing view.
Opening Statement
Your honor, it has come to my attention that Buffalo Bills TE Dalton Kincaid is currently featured as a breakout candidate in The Fantasy Footballers Ultimate Draft Kit, and for good reason. Many experts are projecting him to be the number-one option in a passing attack led by quarterback Josh Allen. Despite Kincaid’s long list of accomplishments as a rookie and massive opportunity in 2024, I’m here to tell you why the fantasy community is GUILTY of excessive hype, and the defendant’s current ADP of TE5 is too high.
Snap Share
Kincaid is not the only tight end in Buffalo. His running mate, Dawson Knox, actually played more snaps than Kincaid last year when both were healthy. In games that both players were active, Knox played more snaps seven out of 11 times. Of course, when Knox missed time due to injury, Kincaid’s snap share skyrocketed, which coincided with his most productive weeks of last season. Unfortunately for Kincaid’s fantasy managers, Dawson Knox is currently healthy entering this season.
To make matters worse for Kincaid, Buffalo stopped using two tight end sets after the switch to interim Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady, who has since been hired as their full-time OC. Here’s a comparison of snaps for Knox and Kincaid after Knox returned from injury following Buffalo’s Week 13 bye:
| Week | Knox Snap % | Kincaid Snap % |
| 14 | 47% | 78% |
| 15 | 62% | 49% |
| 16 | 47% | 42% |
| 17 | 43% | 55% |
| 18 | 47% | 55% |
As you can see, Buffalo’s two tight ends were featured in nearly a 50/50 split after the bye last season, a stretch during which Dalton Kincaid averaged just 5.7 fantasy points/game. The prosecution finds no evidence that Kincaid might be used heavily in the slot while Knox plays in-line tight end in Joe Brady’s offense, and any such suggestion is hearsay at this point.
Establish the Run
Speaking of Joe Brady, another change that he brought to Buffalo’s offense last year was a commitment to running the football. Buffalo’s rushing attempts per game average went from 25.4 under Ken Dorsey to 36.9 after Joe Brady took over in Week 11. It stands to reason that Kincaid’s target number fell off after this transition. After all, tight ends aren’t frequently targeted on running plays. Kincaid posted just one finish inside the top five at his position from Week 11 on.
Buffalo found success with this run-heavy approach, closing the season 6-1 after a 5-5 start. I wouldn’t expect them to stray much from the game plan that was working, especially with the loss of their top receiver, Stefon Diggs. They should continue to lean on the rushing game behind James Cook and the legs of their All-Pro quarterback, Josh Allen. In what projects to be a relatively low-volume passing attack, we should leave the door open for the possibility that Kincaid leads the Bills in targets this year and still disappoints his fantasy managers.
Red Zone Disappearing Act
One might look at the defendant’s extremely modest touchdown total of last season (two TDs) as an opportunity for positive regression. To the contrary, the prosecution would argue that Kincaid’s touchdown total was a result of a significant usage dropoff inside the 20, which the Bills have shown no sign of rectifying. Of his 73 receptions last season, just five occurred in the red zone, and none of those five resulted in a touchdown. Rather than targeting Kincaid, Josh Allen recorded 21 red zone rushing attempts, converting 12 of those into scores. When Allen did throw in the red zone, the targets went to his wide receivers, whom he seemed to trust more in that area of the field. Fellow tight end Dawson Knox even managed to score a couple (two) red zone touchdowns on eight targets.
We know that touchdowns are not a sticky stat, which can only work to Kincaid’s advantage in this case, but the minimal red zone usage that we saw for Kincaid last year should at least raise some red flags for the jury. He’ll need to take a large year-two leap in that department if he is to return on his current TE5 value.
Closing Arguments
The defendant, Mr. Kincaid, certainly proved himself to be a dependable target for this Buffalo offense last season. His season-long average of 7.1 half-PPR fantasy points/game was one of the best we’ve seen from a rookie tight end in recent history. He and fellow rookie Sam LaPorta both finished top 12 at the tight end position last season, which should certainly ease some of the stigma around rookie tight ends in redraft leagues. With that said, looking at the entirety of Kincaid’s season and taking the average doesn’t tell the whole story. If we zoom in and focus on the chunk of the season after Buffalo’s coordinator change, we find Kincaid’s numbers to be less inspiring.
Certainly, Kincaid will benefit from the vacated targets left by the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but it isn’t as if Buffalo didn’t bring in anybody to help fill those roles. Free agent addition Curtis Samuel figures to eat up a bunch of short-area targets, and big-bodied rookie WR Keon Coleman should see plenty of red zone usage this season.
For Kincaid to take the leap from a borderline TE1 to an every-week fantasy starter, he’ll have to overcome a pile of direct evidence from last season. I’ve presented the facts: a 50/50 timeshare with Dawson Knox, a run-heavy offense, and a lack of red zone usage. I now leave the decision with you, the jury, as to whether you think Kincaid has top-five TE upside in 2024.