Evaluating the Texans’ Receiving Room (Fantasy Football)
Introduction
Navigating the Houston Texans‘ receiver room can be a difficult task for fantasy football managers, given their depth and young competition. Yet with the emergence of their potential franchise quarterback CJ Stroud, who threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns last season, the potential for fantasy dominance is undeniable. This article will explore strategies to identify which of the Texans’ pass catchers to target, particularly in dynasty leagues, where investing in receivers is crucial. Getting a piece of this dynamic offense could be a key to fantasy success. In this article, we will look at the following players:
- Noah Brown: WR, 28 years old (FFB Rank: Not Ranked)
- Nico Collins: WR, 25 years old (FFB Rank: 16)
- Tank Dell: WR, 24 years old (FFB Rank: 20)
- Stefon Diggs: WR, 30 years old (FFB Rank: 29)
- John Metchie: WR, 24 years old (FFB Rank: Not Ranked)
- Dalton Schultz: TE, 28 years old (FFB Rank: 13)
- Robert Woods: TE, 32 years old (FFB Rank: Not Ranked)
As of the time of writing, Diggs is listed as the WR1, Collins as the WR2, and Dell as the WR3.
Analysis
To analyze this WR room, we’ll break down three different metrics: fantasy points per reception, target share, and air yards share. First, let’s look at fantasy points per reception:
In the figure below, we see Dell and Collins are the most efficient fantasy receivers on the team, putting up over three points per reception. While Dell only hauled in 47 receptions last season due to injury, this feat is especially impressive from Collins, who pulled in 80 catches at a high point rate. Noah Brown, who only caught 33 passes in 2023, also made the most of his opportunities, putting up yet again, over three points per reception. Acting as a deep threat, 14 of his 33 catches totaled 20+ yards. This is certainly a hard stat to be consistent in, which leaves concern for the older WR, especially as the room has gotten more crowded with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. Looking further down the list, Robert Woods and John Metchie are both low performers in fantasy points per touch. These might be guys to avoid if you can — especially Robert Woods, whose time in the league is waning.
Next, we’ll take a look at each player’s target share — of course, Diggs can’t truly be compared to the rest of the team, as he played with Buffalo in 2023, but it is nice to have him included for reference. In fact, Diggs pulled in a whopping 29.6% of targets under Josh Allen. While he was certainly in a less crowded WR room, he is a receiver who commands the ball and controls the target share. While Stroud distributed the ball well last season, with Collins and Dell as his favorite targets, expect some of these numbers to be a bit smaller in order to make room for Diggs in 2024.
Do note Dalton Schultz‘s relevance in the offense. He commanded over 15% of targets in 2023 and hauled in five TDs, acting as one of Stroud’s favorite red zone targets. Even though the Texans selected TE Brevin Jordan in the fifth round, Schultz seems to be a lock as one of Stroud’s big-man targets in 2024.
Last, we’ll look at air yard shares, where we see nearly the same results. Not much to add here.
Conclusion
The addition of Stefon Diggs is the biggest wild card for this offense. With an alpha-WR in the room with more experience and recognition than the rest, it will be interesting to see how Collins and Dell react. They are essentially taking a step back in their system, which can’t be a strong outlook for either player. Last season, Diggs hauled in over 100 receptions, and only left room for his WR2, Gabe Davis, to grab 45 passes. While that is similar to Tank Dell‘s output last season, there is almost no way he’ll be able to keep it up with Diggs involved. On another note, Schultz shouldn’t see a large regression — TEs typically see a good amount of volume when playing with Diggs. In the past three seasons, the TE1 playing with Diggs hauled in an average of 70 passes.
In the end, some of the most telling aspects of this receiving room are the contracts of their top guys. While we can expect players like Brown, Metchie, and Woods to begin to wash out of the system, looking at the Texans’ investment into each of their key pass catchers can give us a good idea of where things are heading.
- Nico Collins: 3 years, $72 million
- Stefon Diggs: 1 year, $22 million
- Tank Dell: 4 years, $5 million
- Dalton Schultz: 3 years, $36 million
There is no question Houston is in on Nico Collins as he is averaging $24 million a year, with $32 million fully guaranteed. He should be a staple in the offense for another few years at least. Diggs seems to be a short-term investment — he has a one-year deal with the opportunity to prove his worth. With his career trajectory heading towards its back-burner, he shouldn’t be a huge investment for dynasty players but may be a smart one for all-in teams. Tank Dell is getting the short end of the stick here — he’s locked in for four years but isn’t getting paid like the rest. While he is certainly a sleeper pick to get involved in this receiving room, the Texans’ haven’t made it clear that he’ll be involved long-term, so be wary. Last, but not least, Dalton Schultz looks to be settled in for a few years in Houston. He may not be a cream-of-the-crop TE in fantasy, but he certainly is a strong option.