Draft Strategy: Why Fantasy Managers Should Draft Rookies in the RB Dead Zone (Fantasy Football)
With just a few weeks before we are in the thick of redraft season, now is the time to be fine-tuning your strategy to put together your championship lineup! Finding value in the mid-rounds of fantasy drafts is what can really make or break a roster to start the season, so it’s essential to identify players who can outperform where they are drafted to deliver fantasy success.
One of the most common draft strategies in recent years has been avoiding what’s become known as the RB dead zone, usually between rounds 4-8 in redraft leagues. The idea behind this strategy is to avoid taking RBs in this range because they’re less likely to return their ADP. The veteran RBs here are pushed down in ADP for a reason, usually due to an ambiguous situation where we aren’t sure what their role will be in the offense.
Here’s the list of RBs drafted in this range in 2024 and where they finished on the season:
Overall, in 2024, there were 21 RBs drafted between rounds 4 and 8, and just nine of those RBs returned their ADP, though eight of those nine players finished as a top-24 RB. Since 2018, though, there have been 125 veteran RBs drafted in the RB dead zone, with just 38% of those RBs finishing higher than they were drafted.
Meanwhile, rookie RBs drafted in the dead zone return their ADP at a much higher rate. I’ve tracked this data back to 2018, and only in two of those years have rookies drafted in this range not been a hit for fantasy managers at least half the time.
The 2024 season didn’t do much to help this dataset, with only one rookie even getting drafted in rounds 4-8 (Jonathon Brooks), and the two that were drafted just outside the dead zone – Blake Corum and Trey Benson – were unable to find any production for fantasy as rookies either. Bucky Irving couldn’t be included in our dataset, after being drafted in the 14th round, if at all, in most leagues. Overall, fantasy managers should count the 2024 rookie RB class as an outlier. Veterans drafted in the dead zone returned on their ADP at the highest rate since 2018 last season.
So, what to do when fantasy managers hit the middle rounds?
The odds say it’s still better to invest in a rookie RB in the dead zone, and with a rookie RB class that’s expected to be one of the best in recent memory, there should be plenty of correction to aid this strategy going forward.
Deadzone Rookie RBs to Target
Omarion Hampton (LAC)
Andy: RB10 | Jason: RB18 | Mike: RB19
ADP: 4.03 | RB15
While it’s likely he gets pulled out of the RB dead zone before most fantasy drafts get rolling, Omarion Hampton would be the belle of the ball for rookies in this range. Hampton brings 1st round NFL draft capital to one of the more run-centered offenses in the league. At North Carolina, Hampton did a little bit of everything for the Tar Heels, and his 16.5% reception share in their offense shows he has the ability to be a threat in the passing game early on in his career.
What could be even more exciting for his rookie season prospects is the opportunity Hampton could see in the Chargers’ offense. With Najee Harris’ status uncertain after a fireworks accident this offseason, Hampton could open the season as the lead RB in LA when we thought he’d have to win the job over as the season rolls along.
Given the other RBs that are going in the same range as Hampton – Alvin Kamara (4.06), Kenneth Walker (4.08), Chuba Hubbard (4.10) – this rookie may be the best value at the position by the end of the season if he gets the workload expected in this offense.
RJ Harvey (DEN)
Andy: RB26 | Jason: RB25 | Mike: RB34
ADP: 5.09 | RB22
Easily one of the biggest risers throughout the lead-up to draft season, RJ Harvey presents a big decision for fantasy managers to make in drafts. Denver took Harvey in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft, passing on a chance to take several other RBs in the 1st round. Harvey’s ability to produce in the passing game has some fantasy managers salivating at the idea of him getting the majority of the work in Sean Payton’s offense and dreaming of the Saints days of old with Alvin Kamara.
What fantasy managers have to decide is if the threat of JK Dobbins cutting into the workload of Harvey is real enough to make his 5th round ADP worth the asking price. The Ballers do have Harvey well below consensus because of this threat. There is a reality where the Broncos’ backfield is a true split, or at least a split enough backfield for fantasy managers to be left wanting more from such an early pick that was invested.
TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Andy: RB24 | Jason: RB27 | Mike: RB18
ADP: 6.03 | RB24
The pants definitely flew off after TreVeyon Henderson exploded onto the NFL preseason scene, taking his first-ever touch to the house with a 100-yard kickoff return. Henderson is one of the most explosive athletes at RB in the league, let alone one that fantasy managers can get in the 6th round of their fantasy drafts. Add to it that Henderson is a piece of a new-look Patriots team that could take a big step forward alongside QB Drake Maye, and this is the time of buy-in that has the makings of fantasy gold in his rookie season.
While the asking price for Henderson is more palatable than others, there’s still the potential for a Rhamondre Stevenson problem to disrupt any massive workload that fantasy managers would dream of. It may be more appropriate for fantasy managers to draft Henderson with the expectation similar to what Jahmyr Gibbs saw as a rookie in Detroit, though with a less threatening RB in front of him. Overall, Henderson is being drafted at a point in the process where fantasy managers aren’t asking him to be their RB2, and instead, a solid FLEX play who could turn into more as the season progresses.
Kaleb Johnson (PIT)
Andy: RB33 | Jason: RB21 | Mike: RB25
ADP: 7.06 | RB29
Where fantasy managers can truly get the biggest return on their investment may come with Steelers rookie RB Kaleb Johnson. Johnson slipped slightly in the NFL Draft, lasting until the 3rd round, but he finds himself in what may be the ideal opportunity given his skill set. Johnson was one of my favorite prospects from this draft class, as one of just three RBs in the class to finish with a 20+ TD season AND a season of at least 13% team reception share – the other two were Cam Skattebo and Ashton Jeanty.
While the other rookies mentioned have clear RB competition in front of them who have been a lead RB in the league before, Johnson has Jaylen Warren to compete with for major touches in a Pittsburgh offense that has finished top-10 in rushing attempts as a team in each of the last three seasons. Perhaps the only real wildcard for how much work Johnson will see early in the season is Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith, who is traditionally a pain in the backside for fantasy managers in general.
Overall, Johnson could take over as the lead RB by mid-season for Pittsburgh and be a key piece for fantasy managers down the stretch of the season.