Apex Drafting: Finding Upside Round by Round (Fantasy Football)
My most recent article attempted to explain The Apex Drafting Strategy. For clarity on a difficult concept to briefly explain, I invite you to read that article in full if you have the time; it may help this one make more sense.
This article is focused on how to put the Apex Drafting Strategy into action. If you think this is the part where I tell you how to know which players will score the most points at their position in 2024, I have bad news for you; we still can’t predict the future. However, we can optimize our chances by looking for specific criteria. A lot of reliable clues point to players on the verge of an ascent to the upper echelon. Before we dive into specific targets, let’s detail the signs.
Adjust the Aim of the Correlations
One of the best ways to determine the relationship between fantasy scoring and other statistics is to find a correlation coefficient. This defines how well two datasets relate to each other by using a score between 1 and -1 (usually expressed in decimals rounded to thousandths). Zero signifies no discernable relationship between the two datasets, a score of 1 indicates a perfect relationship, and a score of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship.
For example, in a taste test for 100 different types of sandwiches, each with a different combination of ingredients, we ask a focus group to indicate whether they like or dislike each sandwich. Ingredients on the sandwiches that are more often liked have a stronger correlation to preferred sandwich flavors; ingredients on an equal amount of sandwiches that are liked and disliked have a weak correlation; ingredients on the sandwiches that are more often disliked have a negative correlation.
Most fantasy football correlation studies include everyone from a given position in a given year, so we can maximize our dataset and get a complete evaluation of all types of fantasy scorers (in other words, we learn what correlates to high fantasy outputs and low fantasy outputs all at once). However, if we adjust to seek only relationships with players that eventuate near the top of their position in fantasy scoring, we arrive at different results. Here are some of the key differences:
- Quarterback: Running-based statistics are the most important criteria for vaulting QBs to the top end of the position.
- Running Back: Compiling meaningful receiving work is basically a prerequisite for an RB to hit the apex.
- Wide Receiver/Tight End: The closer we get to the top, total target volume is deemphasized while target market share (TGMS) is emphasized (this surprised me). Two additional stats that take a massive leap nearer to the apex are yards per route run (YPRR) and broken tackle percentage (BTK %).
Young Players on the Verge of a Breakout
Historically, breakout seasons are most common in the first two years, especially for year two players and those taken among the top 90 players in their NFL draft class. Breakouts are also more common for players who are 22-23, so if we can find rookies and second-year players in that age range, our odds only increase.
Fantasy Points Over Expected
A recent study by Blair Andrews indicated the best metric for predicting an impending breakout is fantasy points over expected (FPOE). FPOE is volatile, so it can be used as a regression stat, but it can also simply be an indication of superior talent.
FPOE is a bipolar stat, and zero represents the base rate for a league-average player. Essentially, a player who scores zero adds and subtracts nothing to a play beyond what is schemed and blocked relative to the league average, but that’s relative to the league average. For a player like Tyreek Hill, 40-50 FPOE is an annual tradition; he’s different, so this elevated level is his normal rate. The same pattern of high double-digit FPOE annually repeats in the best fantasy players of the generation with few exceptions.
Put another way, if a player is going to become a fantasy star, the first thing he will start to do is start stacking up seasons of high double-digit FPOE. In response, we should gather players who have strung together seasons with high annual FPOE outputs, even if they haven’t scored meaningful fantasy points.
Players Who Are One Circumstance Away
We want to seek players who could swing our fortunes massively if only they receive a clarified role they do not yet have. We want insurance policy RBs and those who could seize valuable roles in ambiguous situations. Contingency value is usually easier to predict in RBs, however, it can happen at other positions; Justin Fields and Isaiah Likely are second-stringers who could have immense upside if their roles expand.
Regression to the Mean
Simply put, regression is a mathematical term for a “return to normal,” and the analysis of it attempts to find anomalies that are being priced in by the market, trusting they will spring back.
There are a few ways to try and find regression, but my preference is to use touchdowns per yard (TDs/Y), to compare select results to the league base rate and see who is scoring too many or too few TDs/Y. Anchoring to yardage is smart; it is a sticky stat with one of the largest sample sizes in a single fantasy season. TDs are simultaneously the highest-scoring fantasy stat and the least common event in our fantasy scoring computations, meaning the most volatile stat with the smallest sample size is also the most significant when it occurs.
We should be careful with this concept. Regression analysis is one of the hallmarks of some of the best fantasy analysts in the world; as laymen, we tend to overstate or overthink the effects of regression, causing us to run from stronger predictors.
Specified Targets Throughout the Draft
Let’s now apply this, using Sleeper ADP and touching on certain players and the clues that speak to outperformance relative to where they are being taken. My focus is on seeking the highest-upside outcome; I am not conducting a draft, so roster construction is not a consideration.
Round 1 – Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (3.1 ADP)
(Honorable mentions: Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Breece Hall, Ja’marr Chase, Jahmyr Gibbs)
Tyreek Hill has the highest two-year FPOE of all players across all positions. He led the league in YPRR each of the past two seasons, and in that same period, he has the second-best TGMS behind only Davante Adams. He’s also in a system that emphasizes his strengths. If he can remain healthy, no one is closer to a sure thing.
Round 2 – De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (23.1 ADP)
(Honorable mentions: Marvin Harrison, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, Josh Allen, Travis Etienne, Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, Sam LaPorta)
For FPOE to become reliable, we are ideally looking for sustained positive outputs. For Achane, this is a meaningful concern. 44% of his total FPOE output came in one blowout against Denver. However, Achane didn’t zero out for the rest of the year, or worse, reverse course. He slowly mounted positive FPOE for the remainder of the season, culminating in positive FPOE in 64% of his games. His lofty 66.8 season-long FPOE was seventh across all positions. We want to respond quickly to these trends because the lifespan of an RB is too brief to be patient. In addition, he is a second-year player entering his age-22 season, and PFF had him with the number one rushing grade and number 12 receiving grade among RBs.
Round 3 – Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins (34.2 ADP)
(Honorable mentions: Derrick Henry, Travis Kelce, Nico Collins, Deebo Samuel, Stefon Diggs)
I feel the eye rolls; I started with three Dolphins. On the surface, they are team regression candidates, but massive efficiency is characteristic of Miami since Mike McDaniel took the helm (many of the brightest burners in FPOE in recent seasons come from the Shanahan systems in Miami, San Francisco, and Los Angeles; I like betting on these systems to continue producing elevated efficiency).
At cost, I prefer Waddle to the crop of WRs that go in the third round; he has been a WR1 twice already, his FPOE has been in the double digits every season of his career, and he ranks seventh in the NFL over the past two seasons (first in 2022). He has maintained over 2.7 YPRR in each of his past two seasons, which is borderline elite, and his contingency value is through the roof if Hill becomes unavailable. The Dolphins are also candidates to regress in rush TD to pass TD rate, in which case the pass catchers would score more TDs. Additionally, Waddle battled injuries last year.
Round 4 – Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants (38.1)
(Honorable mentions: Rachaad White, Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Devonta Smith, James Cook, Mark Andrews)
Malik Nabers, whose rookie profile is uncommonly great, seems head-and-shoulders above the WR stable in New York; he should have no problem becoming the top target for the Giants. Questions about Daniel Jones are overstated as plenty of high-end WRs produce without good QB play (DJ Moore, Mike Evans, and Davante Adams were WR1s in 2023). Nabers is younger than the typical breakout, but then again, the amount of 21-year-old rookies is historically fewer. Boasting 3.8 yards per team pass attempt and a 34% dominator rating at LSU, Nabers should be thought of as a Chase/Cooper-type prospect (he’s simply overshadowed by another). He evaded 31 tackles and had 291 yards after contact, so he’s got a great shot of finding the BTK % we are looking for.
Round 5 – Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (54.0)
(Honorable mentions: Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid, Tank Dell, Alvin Kamara, George Pickens, Keenan Allen)
Anthony Richardson is a second-year QB who almost certainly has some of the most talented rushing we’ve ever seen at the position. After testing as likely the best QB athlete ever, he hit a remarkable 20.2 FPOE in the small sample size of four games, two of which were incomplete. There likely isn’t a player that could sum up the philosophy of sacrificing security in exchange for upside more than Richardson; I’ll gladly take the risk.
Round 6 – Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers (70.4)
(Honorable mentions: George Kittle, Rome Odunze)
Jayden Reed had the most total FPOE among rookie WRs in 2023, second among rookies across all positions behind Achane. His YPRR was respectable at 2.2, and he had a good BTK % at 6.5%. He will be a second-year WR and has contingency value if one or two of the Packers’ pass catchers were to miss games. He only drops this far in drafts because of the crowded room with several promising young WRs. I’ll admit this is nerve-wracking, but history tells us not to run from crowded rooms when we seek upside, especially when the opportunity cost is not overly high.
Round 7 – Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (83.7 ADP)
(Honorable mentions: Kyler Murray, Xavier Worthy, Chris Godwin, Brock Bowers, Rashee Rice)
Here I am in the Dolphins’ backfield again. I wouldn’t bet on Mostert hitting the heights he hit in 2023 when he finished as the RB2 in PPG; he scored 21 TDs last year, and based on combined yardage, he should have scored about eight. He is also an aging RB, which makes him hard to trust. However, his two-year FPOE ranks second among all RBs, only behind Christian McCaffrey. He scored well in PFF rushing grade and receiving grade (first among RBs) in 2023. He is still the best candidate to get the most goal-line work in one of the best situations in football. At cost, the upside on Mostert is way too good, although I agree we should temper our expectations.
Round 8 – Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers (87.6)
(Honorable mentions: Ladd McConkey, Nick Chubb, DeAndre Hopkins, Caleb Williams, Brian Thomas)
Jonathon Brooks may take a while to ramp up, but I’m banking on the rookie to finish strong. He was the first RB taken in the draft, he’s going to a system that has traditionally demonstrated a willingness to feature the RB and provide a healthy passing game role, which meshes well with his profile. Dave Canales ran Rachaad White into the ground last year, and he’s not perceived to be nearly as talented as Brooks.
Round 9 – Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (107.7)
(Honorable mentions: Jaylen Warren, Austin Ekeler, Keon Coleman, Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Trey Benson)
Spears is a second-year player who is 23 years old. He had 52 receptions on 70 targets as a rookie in the anemic Tennessee offense. The market has assumed he will play the 1B to Tony Pollard, but this could go either way. Spears also had four fewer TDs in 2023 than he should have according to TDs/Y regression, and that was while playing with a much better running mate; this makes him one of the best positive-regression candidates in the league. If Spears can get a healthy share of a more modern offense that’s Shanahan-adjacent, he could smash this ADP.
Round 10 – Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (113.3)
(Honorable mentions: Blake Corum, Adonai Mitchell)
As a runner, Jayden Daniels profiles to be among the elite of the elite. Even if unable to produce as a passer, his worst-case scenario is probably akin to Fields, who consistently provided cheap QB1 weeks regardless of other factors. As it has been detailed exhaustively, Daniels is the last of the elite running QBs, which means he represents the end of extreme upside at the position (barring Fields gaining the job in Pittsburgh).
Round 11 – Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (123.1)
(Honorable mentions: Tyler Lockett, Khalil Shakir, Zach Charbonnet, Jakobi Meyers, Xavier Legette)
Chase Brown is trending up with the possibility he starts ahead of Zack Moss in Cincinnati, but there are concerns, particularly his reputation as a pass-protection liability. He had a fair FPOE as a rookie and demonstrated good receiving ability, albeit in limited opportunity. This will be his second season, and he has a clearer pathway to a majority workload than the other promising RB of the round, Zach Charbonnet, because he doesn’t need an injury to usurp the starter. If he does get the job to himself, it could be lucrative; Joe Mixon has been a strong fantasy contributor for years despite waning efficacy.
Round 12 – Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (133.1)
(Honorable mentions: Jerry Jeudy, Luke Musgrave, Kendre Miller, Jaylen Wright)
Rashid Shaheed pops in several advanced metrics and is expected to receive a bump from the new kick return rules. Even without that, he boasts the 11th-best two-year total FPOE across all positions. Isolating only his receiving work, he has the 31st-best two-year receiving FPOE to start a career since 2000, surpassing stars like Devonta Smith, Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, Tyler Lockett, and CeeDee Lamb. He has a pathway to the WR2 job with the Saints; he needs more opportunity. On top of everything, the Saints are moving to a Shanahan system, which usually boosts efficiency for offensive players.
Round 13 – Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (155.1)
(Honorable mentions: J.K. Dobbins, Marshawn Lloyd, Ty Chandler, Taysom Hill, Quentin Johnston)
Dontayvion Wicks had 24.9 FPOE in 2023, and his 2.2 YPRR was borderline elite; he simply seemed to lack consistent target volume. Again, the Packers have a crowded house at WR; what we hope is that Wicks has distinguished himself as a special talent in-house and will subsequently earn more opportunities. At any rate, an injury or two would again guarantee Wicks’ place on the field, and he stands to have good contingency value as he did a year ago. Wicks is 23, which puts him in the best range for a breakout, and his 12.8% BTK rate was fifth in 2023 among WRs with at least 40 targets.
Round 14 – Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (164.1)
(Honorable mentions: Deshaun Watson, Ja’Lynn Polk, Ben Sinnott, Jaleel McLaughlin, Ray Davis)
The case for Vidal is simple: he is a rookie with an uncertain but encouraging profile that indicates well-roundedness, including adequate size and passing-game ability. He plays in a system that figures to prefer run-heaviness (although that is officially unknown), and the other backs in the stable are limited, older, or flawed while Vidal is in the prime breakout age range at 22. Even if he can’t win the job, Vidal is worth a hold as long as possible simply for the weeks he could take control. Assuming the Chargers don’t sign a veteran off the street in those situations, Vidal would potentially offer week-winning upside.
Round 15 – Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants (173.1)
(Honorable mentions: Isaiah Likely, Michael Wilson, Jermaine Burton, Braelon Allen, Elijah Mitchell)
The Giants are unlikely to be great, but competency isn’t impossible. Devin Singletary is likely the starter, but this isn’t certain. Tyrone Tracy, a WR convert out of college, played meaningful snaps at Iowa before switching to RB at Purdue, where he earned PFF’s top rushing grade in 2023. Other late WR/RB converts have had success in the past (David Johnson, Tony Pollard, Antonio Gibson), so a late position switch is not a negative, and he should offer good passing-game acumen. He’s an older prospect, which isn’t ideal, but the sample size of 24-year-old rookies is pretty scant.
Round 16 – Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots (183.5)
(Honorable mentions: Malachi Corley, Bucky Irving, Marvin Mims, Luke McCaffrey, Ja’Tavion Sanders)
Of the dart throws, I’m putting my dollar down on Drake Maye because he had an elite college profile with a strong rushing component. He likely won’t start the season in front of Jacoby Brissett, but he could have a starting role within mere weeks; the third pick in any NFL draft is usually not held down for long (and as decent as Brissett has been at times, he’s not to be mistaken for great). The biggest detractors for Maye’s draft status are assumptions that the offense will be bad mixed with very negative reviews from his first week in camp. For these concerns, I submit to you C.J. Stroud, who was plugged into a perceptibly terrible offense and had an objectively terrible preseason before rattling off arguably the best rookie season ever. It’s good practice to trust profiles above circumstances, especially in the final round.
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