Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

Week 5 brought a much-needed spark to the NFL offenses, and thank goodness for that, as it was the longest Sunday of football we’ve ever experienced. The action kicked off in London, where the game ended up costing Robert Saleh his job as the Jets’ head coach, before concluding with Jalen Tolbert‘s late-game touchdown that propelled the Cowboys past the Steelers in a thrilling finish. As the dust settles on this exciting weekend, we’ll dive into the wide receiver statistics that emerged from the fray, highlighting who thrived and who struggled in a week filled with explosive plays and surprising performances.

By focusing on key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR, we can better understand which players are poised for positive or negative regression. Let’s dig into the data and find out who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

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Overperformer: Ray-Ray McCloud (Atlanta Falcons)

1D/RR: 0.033
Result: 6 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.6 (half-PPR)

Ray-Ray McCloud overperformed his 1D/RR with a solid outing on Thursday Night Football, benefiting from Kirk Cousins’ 58 dropbacks in a thrilling shootout. The high volume of pass attempts created opportunities for all the receivers, making McCloud a viable fantasy option for the night. If Atlanta continues to air it out like this, all three of their main wide receivers could have fantasy value. However, dropping back that many times is likely a mirage, and McCloud’s low 1D/RR makes him a tough player to trust moving forward, as he’s clearly the fourth option in the passing game.

Underperformer: Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)

1D/RR: 0.103
Result: 6 receptions, 69 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.9 (half-PPR)

Tyreek Hill’s 1D/RR number compared to Ray-Ray McCloud’s highlights the value of the metric, as Hill posted 0.07 more 1D/RR — a significant difference in this stat — despite having a similar stat line. While McCloud overperformed, Hill underperformed, showing how trusted pass catchers are valued differently in their offenses. Miami is on a bye this week, giving the team a chance to reset and work on the offense while Tua Tagovailoa heals. Hill is still the focal point, and once things get back on track, he’s bound to explode. The 1D/RR metric really emphasizes Hill’s importance, even when the offense isn’t fully in sync.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

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Overperformer: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)

TPRR: 0.136
Result: 4 receptions, 31 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.1 (half-PPR)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a low 0.136 TPRR, but his day was saved by a touchdown, giving him a decent fantasy performance. He also made a smart play in another moment, pulling two defenders away to create space for a scrambling Geno Smith. Despite the low target share, JSN’s instincts and playmaking are clear. I’m not worried about him — this could just be the Seahawks catching the “Honolulu Blue Flu,” and I expect him to bounce back soon.

WR’s, if you can run DB’s off instead of blocking them, do it!

This is way more effective than physically blocking a DB! pic.twitter.com/au2ARfKYID

— Jake Franklin Football (@JakeFranklinFB) October 7, 2024

Underperformer: George Pickens (Pittsburgh Steelers)

TPRR: 0.30
Result: 3 receptions, 26 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 4.1 (half-PPR)

George Pickens underperformed despite a solid TPRR number. The Steelers’ offense, notoriously slow in terms of plays run, didn’t help his case, but Pickens also contributed to his own struggles. He was seen slacking on multiple routes, raising concerns about his consistency and effort. While the talent is there, it’s tough to rely on him as a fantasy starter, especially with Justin Fields at quarterback, who has been inconsistent at best. Until both the offense picks up pace and Pickens shows more commitment on the field, he’s a risky play.

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Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Demarcus Robinson (Los Angeles Rams)

YPRR: 0.60
Result: 3 receptions, 28 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.3 (half-PPR)

Demarcus Robinson overperformed relative to his YPRR, but he didn’t do much aside from a one-yard touchdown catch that saved managers. With Jordan Whittington quickly emerging as Matthew Stafford‘s go-to guy in the absence of both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Robinson’s role feels fragile. He thrives on low-percentage, high-impact plays, but once Kupp and Nacua return, his opportunities will shrink significantly. If you’re in a dynasty league, now might be the time to try and move him, as his usefulness is likely to fade soon, and he could become unusable moving forward.

Underperformer: Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

YPRR: 2.37
Result: 5 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.9 (half-PPR)

Chris Godwin underperformed in terms of YPRR, with Mike Evans soaking up nearly all the touchdowns in the shootout against Atlanta. Despite the lackluster performance this week, there’s no reason to panic; Godwin remains a key part of the Buccaneers’ offense. This game is likely just a blip on the radar, and with his consistent target share, he should bounce back and continue to contribute significantly as the season progresses. Expect Godwin to find his rhythm again soon, particularly if the offense keeps rolling.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

Last Sunday was an absolute blast, showcasing the kind of thrilling football we all crave, and here’s to hoping that Week 6 brings even more excitement! With the updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS), we can identify rising stars and those who might need to hit the bench. Alec Pierce continues to evade the TPRR allegations and Nico Collins is everything I dreamed he could be; he ended the 2023 season as the number two WR in PRS, and now he sits as the WR2 at this point. Unfortunately, he may miss some time after pulling his hamstring in the first quarter, and despite that, he had a solid performance with two receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown. With Week 6 almost here, good luck to all the fantasy managers out there, I leave you with the updated top 24 in PRS!