Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

With Week 3 in the books, the NFL continues to shake things up. The Bengals can’t stop a college offense, the Commanders haven’t punted in two weeks, and the Bills are rolling like an unstoppable wagon. It’s been a wild ride, and now it’s time to break down the numbers and see who’s trending up or down.

By focusing on key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR, we can get a clearer picture of which players are poised for positive or negative regression. Let’s dig into the data and find out who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

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Overperformer: Jalen Tolbert (Dallas Cowboys)

1D/RR: 0.067
Result: 3 receptions, 42 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.7 (half-PPR)

Jalen Tolbert overperformed in Week 3 despite a low 0.067 1D/RR, largely due to the Cowboys falling behind 28-3 and needing to throw the ball a ton to mount a comeback. With CeeDee Lamb not quite himself since his training camp holdout, Tolbert saw more targets than expected. However, his inefficiency and lack of reliable first-down production make him an unreliable fantasy option moving forward. Tolbert’s 1D/RR clearly indicates that he shouldn’t be trusted in starting lineups at this point.

Underperformer: DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans)

1D/RR: 0.227
Result: 6 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 16.3 (half-PPR)

DeAndre Hopkins had a solid fantasy day in Week 3, but his 0.227 1D/RR suggests he could have done even more. Despite putting up decent numbers, Hopkins left some meat on the bone, as his opportunities to convert first downs were there but not fully capitalized on. He did look like his old self at times, but I still don’t trust him in my lineup moving forward. Will Levis’ horrific pocket awareness and the unpredictability of the Titans’ offense make Hopkins hard to rely on consistently.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Overperformer: JuJu Smith-Schuster (Kansas City Chiefs)

TPRR: 0.12
Result: 2 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.7 (half-PPR)

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JuJu Smith-Schuster posted a disappointing 0.12 TPRR, and it’s clear the Chiefs’ offense still isn’t clicking on all cylinders. JuJu’s role has been reduced to quick slants over the middle, mostly near the goal line, making him a desperation fantasy play where you’re hoping for a touchdown. Meanwhile, Rashee Rice has emerged as Patrick Mahomes‘ favorite target, further limiting JuJu’s opportunities. With Travis Kelce expected to see more targets as the season progresses and Rice playing so well, JuJu’s low TPRR is unlikely to improve, making him a risky option going forward.

Underperformer: Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns)

TPRR: 0.273
Result: 7 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 24.1 (half-PPR)

Amari Cooper had an amazing day in fantasy, but with a 0.273 TPRR and 12 targets, he was primed to go absolutely nuclear. Unfortunately, Deshaun Watson’s horrid play held him back from an even bigger breakout. Cooper still managed to salvage his day with a late touchdown that really boosted his fantasy output, but it’s clear that his ceiling is being capped by Watson’s struggles. While Cooper remains a strong option, there’s no denying he could’ve exploded for an even bigger day with better quarterback play.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)

YPRR: 0.892
Result: 5 receptions, 33 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.8 (half-PPR)

Garrett Wilson posted a 0.892 YPRR in Week 3, seeing nine targets but still lacking full synchronization with Aaron Rodgers. Despite the limited production, he managed to salvage his day with a touchdown. However, if they can find that rhythm, Wilson has the potential to explode, especially given the substantial target share he’s commanding. If he and Rodgers get in sync, Wilson could emerge as a top WR going forward.

Underperformer: D.K. Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks)

YPRR: 3.152
Result: 4 receptions, 104 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 18.4 (half-PPR)

DK Metcalf had a strong fantasy day, but with an eye-popping 3.152 YPRR, his day could’ve been even bigger if the Seahawks had needed to press the issue. With the Dolphins falling behind early and staying there, Seattle didn’t have to throw much, which limited Metcalf’s chances for an even more explosive performance. He’s clearly thriving in the Ryan Grubb offense, and given his current form, DK is a must-start in fantasy lineups moving forward.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

As we dive into this week’s Predictive Receiver Score (PRS), it’s exciting to see how the data is shaping up after three weeks of action. Next week, when we have four weeks of data, I’ll highlight a player you should consider selling or buying based on their PRS performance. I tweeted that I believed Rashee Rice would pop as the number one player in PRS for the season after this week, but he ended up coming in at second place instead. Additionally, Jauan Jennings went absolutely ballistic, making him a must-start if both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are out again. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze these trends and their implications for fantasy success!

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