32 Fantasy Football Storylines to Monitor in Training Camp for 2025

We. Are. Back! The start of NFL training camps can only mean one thing – fantasy football draft season is here! But we need to pump the brakes a little bit. Right now, we think we know what’s going to happen for each team, but let’s be real – there’s so much up in the air and there’s no shortage of unanswered questions. Once those questions are answered and we get some clarity over the course of training camps, draft strategies, player takes, teams to target, etc. start to come into focus.

In this article, I’ll highlight one fantasy-relevant storyline to monitor in training camp for each NFL franchise. From positional battles to injuries to coaching schemes, there’s an edge to be had if you’re up to date on what’s happening in camp. Here’s what I’m watching for in late July and August as we prepare for our fantasy drafts. Camps open for most NFL clubs the third week of July.

Looking for more Fantasy Football Draft prep advice? Be sure to check out the award-winning 2025 Ultimate Draft Kit, which includes everything we think you need to win your league – projections, tier-based rankings, sleepers, breakouts, busts, and so much more!

Arizona Cardinals

Can Marvin Harrison Jr. make the Year 2 leap?

Based on lofty expectations as a rookie, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s first season as a pro felt like a disappointment. In best ball and redraft leagues alike, Marv ended up as a fringe first-round pick, which was the highest ADP we had ever seen for a rookie WR. In hindsight, that’s pretty crazy and obviously looks quite silly. This year, Marv has settled in as a third-round pick in best ball formats, so we’re really not getting a huge discount after his Year 1 performance. For him to hit at that ADP, he’ll certainly need to make a leap in Year 2.

If you just look at the raw stats from 2024, Harrison actually finds himself in some pretty elite company. He’s one of just six rookie WRs over the last decade to put up 880+ yards and 8+ TDs. The others? Michael Thomas, A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Jordan Addison, and Brian Thomas Jr. Hey, not bad! Okay, now let’s look at some of his per route numbers to see how he stacked up against his peers.

In 2024, Marv was targeted on 21% of his routes while averaging 1.63 yards per route run. Those numbers were fine, but not great. Among 18 rookies who saw 25+ targets, that 1.63 YPRR mark ranked 6th in last year’s class, well behind the likes of Ladd McConkey (2.59), Brian Thomas Jr. (2.45), and Malik Nabers (2.17). The question fantasy gamers need to ask themselves is how much of the poor efficiency is on the player and how much is on the play caller/scheme/QB? As always, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

For context, 68.5% of his targets were 10+ yards down the field, and among qualified wideouts, Marv was the only WR in the league to see 25+% of his targets on go routes. While that’s exciting in some ways for big play upside, it adds a ton of volatility that can lead to disappearing acts when those downfield targets aren’t hitting. Paging Drew Petzing: Let’s see some more diverse routes for the 4th overall pick, and maybe good things will happen! 

The problem here is that Trey McBride just absolutely dominated on those “layup” targets closer to the line of scrimmage. If Petzing continues to feed TMcB the gimme looks with Marv operating as the downfield threat, it could be a disappointment yet again. Ultimately, in camp, I’m looking to see if we can get any notes on Marv’s usage. I hope we get a more diverse route tree with him lined up all over the formation. Oh, and of course, we’ll all be looking to see if those sweet biceps lead to more fantasy points.

Atlanta Falcons

Is Michael Penix ready to be the full-time starter?

The Kirk Cousins era came and went in the blink of an eye despite the veteran signing a massive 4-year deal in free agency last year. Atlanta is now all in with the former 8th overall pick in the Draft. In fact, they’re so all in that they traded away their first-round pick in next year’s draft this past April in order to go back into Round 1 and take James Pierce. So, how likely is it that Penix puts it all together in Year 2 and supports Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney for fantasy? We’re about to find out very quickly.

Penix started three games as a rookie, taking over for Cousins in Week 16. Over the final three games of the year, Penix put some nice throws on tape, but the advanced metrics weren’t anything to write home about. It’s a small sample size, but his -5% completion percentage over expectation ranked 29th while his 77.9 QBR was also a bottom-10 mark. That said, those metrics don’t tell the whole story. The then-rookie was PFF’s 11th graded passer in those games, and his 8.5% big time throw rate was a top-five mark. In other words, the consistency wasn’t there, but the big throws were thanks to his ability to rip it down the field. In his three starts, he logged a healthy 10.5-yard aDOT.

It’s obviously hard to draw conclusions from a three-game sample, but Penix at least flashed the ability to operate the Atlanta offense and push the ball down the field. In addition, Penix did a great job of limiting sacks with a pressure-to-sack ratio of just 9.7%. Again, small sample size alert, but that’s a pretty elite mark and something that was true of Penix coming out of Washington. If Penix can be more consistent snap to snap while also providing those big plays he showed last year, Atlanta could be an exciting offense to buy into for 2025.

Baltimore Ravens

How will the TE’s playing time and targets be distributed?

Rewind to Week 1 of 2024. EVERYONE PANIC. Mark Andrews drafters were immediately having #ragrets while everyone was spending all of their FAAB on Isaiah Likely after he dropped 9/111/1 on the Chiefs. In hindsight, that was, of course, an overreaction, but one thing is clear: The trends for Marky Mark have not been great. Over the last three years, his metrics have been declining across the board:

• Routes per game: 29.1 > 26.4 > 21.3
• Targets per route run: 25.5% > 21.4% > 19.5%
• Yards per route run: 1.97 > 1.93 > 1.88

Despite those concerns, Andrews was still good in fantasy (at least for TEs), but he was perhaps the most TD-reliant player in all of fantasy football. The man somehow converted 15 of his red zone targets into 11 TDs…wut? We should obviously expect regression there, especially considering that over the last decade, every TE with 10+ TDs and less than 900 receiving yards regressed in TDs the following season. With Andrews involved in trade rumors throughout the spring and now in a contract year, does that potentially open the door for Isaiah Likely to see the field more in 2025 as the potential heir apparent to Andrews in Baltimore?

For fantasy, Likely won’t be startable without an injury to Andrews, but there is a world that exists where these two are on the field together enough that they eat into each other’s production, making this a frustrating and unreliable situation all year. Per Sumer Sports, Baltimore was fifth in the league in 12 personnel usage in 2024, using that formation on 31% of their plays. For comparison’s sake, they ranked 27th in 12 personnel usage in 2023 at just 10.7%. It’s possible that’s because of Andrews’ season-ending ankle injury in Week 11, but it’s also fair to wonder if the Ravens recognize what they have in Likely and want to get him on the field more as a result.

Buffalo Bills

Will one pass catcher emerge as a high-end fantasy starter?

In 2024, we all took shots on the likes of Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman early in drafts with the hopes of landing Josh Allen‘s WR1 with Stefon Diggs vacating a ton of opportunity. As we all know in hindsight, the answer to “which Bills pass catcher do you need this year?” was no one! Dalton Kincaid (TE28), Khalil Shakir (WR39), and Keon Coleman (WR67) didn’t materialize into fantasy difference makers despite the Bills being one of the most successful offenses in the league.

Fast forward 12 months, and fantasy gamers are once again looking for one of these pass catchers to step up as Allen’s go-to guy. To Shakir’s credit, he was great for what Buffalo asked him to do, but his role isn’t exactly great for the game we play (at least in half-PPR formats). He turned 100 targets into just over 800 yards thanks to a wimpy 5.5-yard aDOT. Shakir has averaged 1.75 YPRR and 2.20 YPRR over his last two years, so he can absolutely play, but unless he starts to see some more downfield looks or targets in the red zone, it’s going to be tough for Shakir to generate spike weeks.

Coleman wasn’t a perfect prospect coming out of Florida State, and his rookie year didn’t do much to convince us that he’s a difference maker. He provided some big plays for Buffalo (18.1 yards per catch), but he wasn’t a consistent producer, potentially due to a mid-season wrist injury. In fact, he logged just 10 total catches over his final seven games, including playoffs. With Mack Hollins now in New England and Amari Cooper gonezo, the Bills will almost certainly be relying on Coleman to be a near every-down receiver in Year 2. In my opinion, the jury is still out on whether or not he’s the guy to get it done.

Joshua Palmer comes over from the Chargers, and we’ve seen him pop up for big games over the years, but he is yet to solidify himself as an every-down player throughout his NFL career. Through four years, he’s averaging just under 40 receiving yards per game – meh. Now entering Year 5, he signed a 3-year, $29 million deal in free agency, which is starter money, but as Marvin Elequin has shown us, it’s quite rare to see WRs break out for fantasy at this stage of their career. To Palmer’s credit, he’s shown an ability to beat man coverage, but he’s earned a target on just 16% of his routes throughout his career.

And finally, we have Dalton Kincaid, who played through a PCL injury after the Week 10 game against the Colts. After Week 10, Kincaid’s production fell off the map, but let’s be real – it wasn’t good before the injury. Prior to suffering that knee injury, Kincaid posted just one top-12 fantasy week, and on the year, he never cleared 55 (!!) yards in a single game – Not great, Bob! On the positive side, Kincaid did earn targets at a pretty solid level, seeing a target on 22% of his routes in 2024, which was better than the 19.5% TPRR mark he posted as a rookie. I do think there’s a chance Kincaid can be a post-hype sleeper, but he’ll need to take command of the ‘WR1’ role and/or have a lucky TD season for that to come to fruition.

Unfortunately for all these guys, OC Joe Brady’s scheme doesn’t exactly scream “fantasy upside” for the pass game. Yes, Josh Allen is incredible and is always capable of huge passing stat lines. However, after dropping from seventh to 18th in neutral pace when Brady relieved Ken Dorsey of OC duties two seasons ago, Buffalo was the sixth slowest offense in 2024. Additionally, their pass rate with Dorsey was seventh in neutral situations. That mark dropped to 25th over the final stretch of 2023, and they were 14th last year. Ipso facto, we’ll probably see an average to below league-average pass rate with a slow pace of play. Unless that changes, it’s somewhat unlikely one of these guys puts up a difference-making stat line in fantasy.

Carolina Panthers

Will Bryce Young continue to ascend in Year 3?

After his rookie campaign in 2023 and the first two weeks of the 2024 season, it seemed like Young’s career was already hanging on for dear life. He did, after all, get benched for Andy Dalton. Through those 18 starts, Young had averaged just 4.95 yards per pass attempt while completing just over 57% of his passes. In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA), the only QBs who were worse on a per-play basis in that sample were the illustrious trio of Bailey Zap Zap Zappe, Zach Wilson, and Tommy Cutlets, aka Tommy DeVito. Yikes!

After a brief stint on the bench, Young returned to play some really solid football. From his return in Week 8 through the end of the season, here’s where Young ranked among qualified QBs:

• 6th in PFF Passing Grade
• 1st in Big Time Throw Rate
• 5th in Pressure-to-Sack Ratio
• T-13th in Completion Percentage over Expected
• 17th in EPA per play

Okay, Bryce, I see you! For fantasy, Young averaged 18 fantasy points per game, thanks in part to his improved play as a passer. Perhaps more importantly for the game we play, however, Young really showcased an ability to pile up fantasy points with his legs. In fact, 29% of Young’s fantasy points came via his legs. That mark, by the way, ranked 6th among qualified starters. It remains to be seen if that trend will continue in 2025, but if we do get something around 300-400 rushing yards and a few scores, Young will have some fantasy-friendly weeks as a QB2.

From a top-level view, there’s a lot working in Young’s favor: He’s entering Year 2 in Dave Canales’ system while all five starters on the offensive line are returning, pointing to some continuity for the young signal caller. On top of that, Young gets a brand new weapon in Tetairoa McMillan, who was selected 8th overall in the NFL Draft, and the Panthers have Warren Sharp’s sixth-easiest strength of schedule in the league. And the defense? It should once again be #bad as the Panthers’ secondary ranks 30th entering the season per PFF with their defense as a whole ranking 26th according to Mike Clay’s Unit Grades. If they’re bleeding points once again, Young and the offense should be pushed to keep up.

Chicago Bears

Can Ben Johnson help Caleb Williams make the Year 2 leap?

Much like Marvin Harrison Jr., expectations for the first overall pick in 2024 were sky high. We all thought highly of the situation that Caleb was dropped into – a 3WR set of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and the ninth overall pick, Rome Odunze! What could go wrong? Shane Waldron has entered the chat…Yikes. It was a complete mess in Chicago last year with Williams juggling multiple play callers, a suboptimal scheme, a struggling offensive line, and a head coach in Matt Eberflus who seemed to be over his head in my extremely professional opinion. All of those factors led to a cascade of events that led to an extremely frustrating season in Chicago. Fast forward one year, and Ben Johnson is here to save the day, right?!

Let’s hope so. Johnson, of course, comes over from Detroit, where he helped the Lions rank top-3 in yards per play in back-to-back seasons while orchestrating one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. So, how could he help produce similar results with Caleb and the Bears’ offense in 2025? I’ll be looking for Ben to simplify things for Williams – get the ball out quicker and utilize more play action.

In 2023 and 2024, Jared Goff ranked 31st (7.3) and 35th (7.2) in aDOT. Caleb was tied for 20th last year (8.1). Over the last two seasons, Goff has led the NFL in drop-backs off play action in back-to-back seasons. In 2024, Caleb was 37th among all qualified QBs in percentage of drop-backs that came off play action. Mr. Waldron, asking a rookie QB to drop back and read NFL defenses on his own is asking A LOT dude…For context, Williams’ 3.03 seconds time to throw last season was the fifth-slowest in the league.

Johnson’s scheme should be much, much more advantageous for Williams – utilize play action behind an improved offensive line, get the ball out quicker, and let your skill guys (by the way, there’s plenty of them!) go to work. In theory, it sounds simple, but we can’t move on without acknowledging that Williams himself has to improve as an NFL QB.

Among 39 qualified QBs with 250+ drop backs, Caleb ranked 30th in PFF’s passing grade, he was 34th in YPA, and he was 38th in pressure-to-sack ratio. Some of that is on the O-line, sure, but taking sacks was an issue for Caleb going back to his time in college. If he can clean that up, and/or Johnson can put him in more advantageous positions to succeed, we should see a much more efficient Chicago offense in 2025. Admittedly, there are a lot of moving parts here, though, especially considering two of the main weapons in Colston Loveland (shoulder surgery) and Luther Burden (soft tissue injury) have missed the entire off-season workout program.

Cincinnati Bengals

Who wins the RB2 job?

There aren’t a lot of question marks for this Cincinnati team (at least on offense). They backed up the Brinks truck for Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and even Mike Gesicki, so offensively, we know what we’re going to get here with Burrow, one of the most likely candidates to lead the NFL in pass attempts and yards, given the current setup. Defensively, there are a million question marks, which is #NotIdeal considering how terrible the Bengals were on that side of the ball a year ago.

The lone question mark on offense, in my opinion, is who is going to win this RB2 job behind Chase Brown. A league winner last year, Brown was one of fantasy’s most valuable players over the final two months of the season. From Week 9 on, after Zack Moss went to IR with a neck injury, he was the RB5 in fantasy, and only Saquon saw more total opportunities per game (24.4) in that span as the Bengals loaded him up with a massive workload, averaging 86% of the team’s snaps. Based on their lack of investment in the RB position this off-season, Chase should once again project for plenty of touches in this backfield, but what happens if he misses time due to injury?

Behind Brown, the Bengals have old friend Samaje Perine back in town on a cheap one-year deal, Zack Moss took a big pay cut to stick around (but may still get cut), and they drafted Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks in the 6th round. You can see why Chase Brown projects for over 300 total opportunities in the UDK…Aside from 2024, when it seemed like every RB stayed healthy, chaos generally ensues at the running back position, so who could stand to benefit if Brown misses games?

It’s an impossible question to answer without news or reporting out of training camp, so I’ll definitely be watching to see what the RB rotation is during camp. To me, the answer to this question probably comes down to who they trust the most in pass pro. Over the last two seasons, the Bengals have ranked #1 and #2 in pass rate over expectation with Joe Burrow dropping back to pass 725 times in 2024 (lol), so they’re highly unlikely to put someone out there who can’t protect the franchise’s most valuable player.

In our game, Perine may be an annoying ‘reliable’ player for the Bengals if he’s trusted in pass pro like he was a few years back, but it’s tough to get excited about his potential fantasy value even if Brown goes down. The unknown of Brooks is intriguing, but the hit rate on Day 3 RBs is abysmal in fantasy football. The draft capital is not great, but Brooks at least showed during his time in college that he can operate as a workhorse. Per Dane Brugler’s scouting report in The Beast:

“A four-year starter at Texas Tech, Brooks was a workhorse back in former offensive coordinator Zach Kittley’s zone-based run scheme. The most prolific running back in school history, he posted back-to-back 1,500-yard seasons as a junior and senior and finished his career with 22 straight games of 95 rushing yards or more.”

Brooks did also post a really impressive 6.9-second time in the 3-cone, which earned him an 86th percentile mark in our data set for “Quickness,” and he posted three straight seasons of at least an 8%+ reception share in his college offense, so perhaps there’s some upside here if everything breaks right for the rook.

Cleveland Browns

Who will win the starting QB job?

Normally, for a team with the lowest win total and average team total in the NFL, we’re not really interested in this type of QB battle. However, given what Joe Flacco has done for his pass catchers in recent seasons, count me in as someone who will be closely monitoring Cleveland’s QB competition. At this stage of his career, Flacco leaves a lot to be desired in terms of real-life NFL play, but for fantasy, the man has chucked it, and it’s resulted in some really fun box scores for his pass catchers. Remember those five magical starts for the Browns back in 2023? The man who once fell asleep on the sideline during Thursday Night Football (#NeverForget) led Cleveland to 19, 31, 20, 36, and 37 points while throwing 13 scores in his five starts.

Over the last three years, Flacco has started 14 games for the Colts, Browns, and Jets. In those contests, he’s averaged 293.6 passing yards per game. Will it be pretty? Certainly not. Will he turn the ball over and take sacks? Of course. But if he’s starting, we can at least look at Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and potentially Cedric Tillman as high upside fantasy starters in our lineup. The same cannot be said if it’s Kenny Pickett or one of the rookies, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. I’d be quite surprised if the Week 1 veteran starter is still starting games in November or December as this team will certainly want to get a look at their young guys as they rebuild, but like I said, as long as Flacco is under center, things could get a little wild (in a good way) for main weapons in Cleveland. #LetJoeCook?

Dallas Cowboys

What does the RB depth chart look like, and does it matter?

The Cowboys RB room is…something. The boiz Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue, and Miles Sanders will reportedly take part in a competition during training camp. As things stand in the current ADP landscape, not a single RB on Dallas goes inside the top-30 RBs, creating a potential buying opportunity at a low risk. Let’s look at each individual profile…

Javonte, who’s still only 25 years old, was awesome before his complex multi-ligament ACL injury a few years ago, but since then? Barf. Among 36 qualified RBs with at least 125 rush attempts last year, Williams ranked 32nd in YPC, 29th in broken tackle rate, and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. One area where Williams did succeed is as a pass blocker. He ranked 10th in PFF’s pass block grade when looking at backs who logged at least 50 snaps as a pass blocker. More on that soon…

The Miles Sanders breakout season in Philly feels like decades ago at this point. Over the last two years, Sanders ranks 55th out of 59 qualified backs in YPC, with his yards after contact per attempt dropping in three straight seasons: 2.91 > 2.65 > 2.51. A career 0.86 YPRR as a pass catcher, Sanders has also struggled to produce as a receiver. He’s only in town on a one-year deal worth a little over $1M and now 28 years old.

And then there’s Jaydon Blue, who was taken in the 5th round out of Texas. Blue has just 214 career collegiate carries to his name, but when you’re playing behind some dudes named Bijan Robinson and Jonathon Brooks, it kinda makes sense. His real strength? Explosiveness and pass catching. Blue blazed 4.38 in the 40-yard Dash at the NFL Combine, and during his final year in college, he posted an elite 13% reception share. Considering he was playing with NFL talents like Matthew Golden and Gunner Helm, that’s a pretty fantastic mark, and it was one of the best numbers in this year’s class.

So what does all this mean? Well, we need to monitor those camp reports closely in terms of playing time and touches, but to me, this low investment in the RB room as a whole signals a very, very pass heavy game plan from Brian Schottenheimer. They signed one of the league’s better pass protectors in Williams and drafted one of the best pass-catching backs in the class while also trading for George Pickens. After doing this research, I’m willing to take shots on all three guys in drafts given that the cost is so low, but my preference is the upside of a guy like Blue, especially in full PPR formats. But perhaps the biggest takeaway? Draft Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. I’ve personally bet Dak to lead the league in passing.

Denver Broncos

What will the RB split look like for R.J. Harvey and J.K. Dobbins?

Sean Payton’s backfields have been fantasy gold for years. In 12 years as a play caller going back to 2010, his teams have ranked inside the top-6 every year in RB target share. Even last year, when Javonte Williams was farting around to the tune of 3.7 YPC, he still saw 70 targets! The only RBs with more targets than Williams in 2024 were Alvin Kamara, DeVon Achane, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson. So yes, he had Kamara and Darren Sproles for all those years, but this is a coach who’s been designing touches for guys like Jaleel McLoughlin and Samaje Perine in recent seasons.

So, who will get that pass-catching work? And who will earn work on the ground? The answer to both of those questions is, to some degree, both guys, but trying to get info on this split is going to be really important for fantasy drafts. Regardless of how this one pans out, it’s pretty evident that Payton loves himself a committee.

Harvey is probably the most likely candidate to earn the more valuable touches in this offense, but Jaleel McLoughlin might play more than we think, and to his credit, he’s been solid on a per touch basis. Dobbins was able to produce last year in LA, but he one again missed time with a knee sprain, and over the final couple of months, his efficiency really fell off. He got off to a hot, hot start in Weeks 1 & 2, but from Week 3 on, he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, and his 0.72 YPRR wasn’t anything to write home about. Dobbins signed late in free agency for just one year $2.5M, and let’s not forget, the Chargers decided they needed an upgrade in the form of Najee + Omarion Hampton. Ultimately, this could be a full blown 3-man committee, but those training camp reports and preseason games could provide us some much needed info on how this RB room might shake out.

Detroit Lions

How will the offense look without Ben Johnson?

Over the last two seasons, Detroit’s offense has been a printing press for fantasy football. In 2023 and 2024 combined, the Lions rank 4th in EPA per play, 4th in Success Rate, 2nd in yards per play, and they’ve been top-5 in points per game in back-to-back seasons. Detroit has a ton of continuity entering 2025 in terms of their personnel, so we know what to expect on that front, but how will new OC John Morton perform in his first year calling plays for Detroit?

First, let’s look at some of the components that made Ben Johnson‘s Lions so successful last year. We’ve already hit on some of the surface-level stats, but some of these notes are pretty intriguing:

• Jared Goff shifted from ranking #19 in play-action usage in 2023 to #4 in 2024. Off play action, he ranked 4th in YPA, 3rd in adjusted completion percentage, 4th in passer rating, and he tied Sam Darnold for the NFL lead in TD passes
• Detroit absolutely killed it on first downs. They led the NFL shortest average distance to go on third down and they were second in first down rate on early downs. In other words, Detroit had a major advantage in terms of picking up first downs and keeping the chains moving, leading to plenty of scoring opportunities.
• To further illustrate their dominance on first downs, they ranked #1 in EPA per drop back on first down, #2 in EPA per rush, and 7th in explosive play rate.

It’s hard not to look at those numbers and question whether or not John Morton is up to the task. He comes over from Denver, where he was the pass game coordinator for the last two years. He does, however, have ties to Dan Campbell, serving as a Senior Offensive Assistant for the Lions in 2022. To Morton’s credit, he was part of the regime that helped Broncos QB Bo Nix account for the second-most passing touchdowns (29), third-most completions (376), and eighth-most passing yards (3,775) by a rookie quarterback in NFL history a year ago…How much of that was Sean Payton? Probably a lot, but it is worth pointing out.

All in all, Morton has his hands full for sure. Not only was the Lions offense just exceptional the last couple of years under Ben Johnson, this Lions team is probably setup for natural regression even if Johnson did stick around. Goff is coming off career highs in completion rate, yards per pass attempt and TD rate at 6.9%. Over the last decade, 52 QBs have had 30+ passing TDs and a 5.5+% TD rate. Only nine improved their TD rate the following year. 83% of the QBs in that sample saw a decrease in TD rate the following season, with the average decrease being 1.7%.

On top of Goff’s inevitable regression, the Lions play the third-most difficult strength of schedule in the league. Last year, their SOS ranked 11th-easiest. They went 7-2 in one-score games a year ago, with that winning percentage ranking second in the NFL. They won 82% of games where they were trailing. That also ranked #2 in the NFL. And finally, a year ago, they played just three total games outdoors. In 2025, they’ll play seven games in the elements. I’m not saying the Lions won’t be good…but also, we shouldn’t expect Detroit’s offense to do what they did a year ago.

Why is that an issue? Based on current Sleeper ADP, Jared Goff is going off the board as the QB8, Jahmyr Gibbs is going off the board as the RB3, David Montgomery is the RB21, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are both being selected inside the top-30 WRs, and Sam LaPorta is currently the TE5 in ADP. In other words, fantasy drafters are counting on literally everyone to be great for fantasy at these prices. John Morton, don’t fail us now…

Green Bay Packers

Who is the #1 WR in a crowded room?

Death, taxes, and a WR by committee approach. It’s what we’ve come to know under Matt LaFleur ever since some guy named Davante Adams left town. Josh Jacobs agrees. In February, he said, “I think we need a guy that’s proven to be a No. 1 WR already.” To be fair, Green Bay had some of the worst WR play in the league, at least in terms of drops. Their WR room led the NFL in drops a year ago (and not in a good way). In fact, Mr. Stone Hands Dontayvion Wicks literally ranked dead last in ESPN’s ‘Catch Score’ last season, while Jayden Reed‘s 14.5% drop rate was the fifth-worst mark in the league when looking at WRs who saw 50+ targets. Regression to the mean for Jordan Love, anyone?!

Enter Matthew Golden, Green Bay’s first Round 1 WR selection since 2002. The draft capital says he’s going to get every chance to entrench himself as the top guy on this depth chart, but let’s address the elephant in the room. This is statistically the worst Round 1 NFL Draft production profile we’ve seen since 2020. The film guys love him, and his 4.29 speed is intriguing, but we have to acknowledge this is not a perfect prospect by any means. With Christian Watson recovering from a late-season ACL injury, you’d have to think he gets a shot at filling that ‘vertical threat’ role in the GB offense.

Romeo Doubs quietly led the team in target share in each of the past two seasons, yet he hasn’t eclipsed 675 yards in either of those two years. He’s a great bet to be on the field for a ton of routes and snaps given his role as the X receiver, but it hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy production on a consistent basis. If Jayden Reed sees the field more this year, and/or Golden shows any target-earning ability at the next level, it’s tough to see Doubs being anything more than a FLEX play in fantasy football.

Speaking of Reed, Green Bay just refuses to put him on the field in 2WR sets. Over the last two seasons, he’s run a total of seven routes in 2WR sets. Unless that changes or the Packers morph into one of the most pass heavy units in the league, it’s likely to lead to some frustrating consistency issues in fantasy football. To Reed’s credit though, the man is baller (career 2.07 YPRR) and capable of putting up big time plays, but it’s been really difficult to predict when those big games are going to happen, making him a tricky start/sit decision in your lineup.

Dontayvion Wicks was a popular sleeper in the fantasy community a year ago, but he was a massive disappointment with just three weeks as a top-36 fantasy WR. The drops were a major issue, and the fact that GB spent a first round pick on Golden can’t be a good sign for Wicks’ playing time. And then there’s fellow rookie, Savion Williams, who GB took in the third round. Williams drew Cordarrelle Patterson-esque comps in the pre-draft process given his unique skillset as a jack of all trades, master of none gadgety type guy. A LOT would have to go right for him to see the field on a consistent basis as a traditional WR, so he’s probably more of a rotational player in Year one.

All in all, I expect Golden and Doubs to play in 2WR sets with Jayden Reed continuing to play as the WR3 out of the slot. Last year, 520 of his 719 offensive snaps came out of the slot, so for him to really make a splash in fantasy football, he’s likely going to need Green Bay to play in more negative game scripts and/or up their neutral pass rate. One thing that’s interesting about Green Bay a year ago is that while they were one of the most run-heavy units in football, some of those numbers are skewed by injuries to Jordan Love. He missed Weeks 2-3 with a knee injury, and in those games, the Packers attempted a total of 33 passes with Malik Willis under center (and went 2-0 by the way!). He also played through a groin injury after Week 8. As a result, the Packers ranked 30th in pass rate over expectation (-8.4%) on the year. However, if you look at the splits when Love was fully healthy, they logged a +3.6% PROE which would have ranked 7th across the entire season. They’re obviously not going to come out and lead the league in pass rate a la Cincinnati, but I do think there’s some meat on the bone here for Love and his pass catchers.

Love is only one year removed from a 4,100 yard, 32 TD campaign as fantasy’s QB5 in 2023. If he can rekindle some of that magic, there’s a potential buying opportunity here. Let’s see what the camp reports look like for GB’s wide receiver rotation. As of the writing of this article, not a single Packers WR goes inside the top-40 in terms of Sleeper ADP.

Houston Texans

Will C.J. Stroud bounce back after a disappointing sophomore slump?

Stroud’s rookie season was a revelation. Naturally, we all got very excited about Stroud’s outlook in Year 2, but in hindsight, we know how that went! The offensive line was a train wreck, the WRs all got injured, and naturally, Stroud’s efficiency came crashing back down to Earth. It led to Stroud being one of the biggest busts in all of fantasy football. He went off the board as the QB5 last August and finished as the QB18 with just three games inside the top-12. Gross! Now, entering Year 3 with a new set of weapons, a new OC, and some new players on the offensive line, is Stroud set up to be a post-hype sleeper in 2025?

Most of the blame, at least in the public perception it seems, was placed on Bobby Slowik’s less than ideal scheme. And while I don’t think Slowik was great, he wasn’t the worst in the NFL either. Houston was 13th in play action rate and 6th in pre-snap motion rate, which are usually two indicators of play callers who are ahead of the curve in terms of helping put their QB in a position to succeed. One area that was lacking, however, is that Stroud has basically no control at the line of scrimmage pre-snap. There’s been a lot of talk this off-season about that changing under new OC Nick Caley, so we’ll see if that leads to different results. When your QB doesn’t have much control at the line and you’re playing behind Swiss Cheese, things can go south very quickly…did ya watch Houston last year?! No QB in the NFL saw more quick pressure than Stroud, and sure, sometimes pressure can be a QB stat if they’re holding onto the ball too long or aren’t able to navigate in the pocket, but just about every major outlet had Houston’s line as one of the worst in football. PFF had them 29th at the end of the season, and they ranked 22nd in pass block win rate. Entering 2025, they made some big changes on the line, but the personnel there still have major question marks. Entering 2025, PFF has them ranked 32nd…not great! They’ll be relying on scheme and QB adjustments pre-snap to mask some of those personnel/talent issues.

Can Caley’s scheme help offset those O-Line concerns? Will rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel hit in Year 1? Can Christian Kirk return to form after some disappointing injury-riddled seasons in Jacksonville? Ultimately, I think Stroud is a much better talent than what he showed last season, but it’s pretty unfair to expect his rookie season to be the norm, at least in the short-team. While there’s definitely a path to disappointment again this year, the good news is that most of the concerns are probably baked into his ADP, given that he’s going off the board as the QB18 in season-long leagues.

Indianapolis Colts

Who will win the starting QB job?

Anthony Richardson, you’re officially on notice. GM Chris Ballard has talked publicly about creating competition in the QB room, and he backed it up by paying Danny Dimes $14 million in free agency. It’s obviously not starter money, but it’s top of the league backup money. In other words, Richardson is on thin ice entering his third year as a pro. We expected A Rich to enter camp as the starter, but now that AR is dealing with a shoulder injury, no one should be surprised if Jones steals the starting gig.

It’s kinda wild to say, but Daniel Jones being the starter might actually be a good thing for the likes of Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and rookie TE Tyler Warren. Don’t get it twisted, Tom Brady ain’t walking through that door, but when you compare the two QBs in terms of their numbers as passers, it’s pretty obvious Jones has been a better passer than AR. Note – that does not mean he’s great, but Richardson has been one of the worst passers in the league since he was drafted. Last season, among all QBs with 100 drop-backs, Richardson was dead last in off-target rate according to FantasyPoints Data Suite. That’s correct, he was technically less accurate than Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Will Levis, and Desmond Ridder, at least in their charting system. Vom…

Ipso facto, if you’re interested in drafting one of the Colts’ main weapons in your league this year, it might be preferred if Dimes is the starter all year.

Indy will reportedly have a QB competition once camp opens. Here’s how Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson compared as passers in 2024: pic.twitter.com/ulX0CB8uaq

— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) June 20, 2025

Jacksonville Jaguars

Who is the RB1 in Jacksonville?

Perhaps the most obvious question mark in Jacksonville is how much Travis Hunter will play on offense, but honestly it may be impossible to answer as it could very well be a week-to-week situation. As a result, I pivoted to the RB room given that we know potential league winners come from ambiguous situations. Last year’s incumbents, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, are joined by 4th-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten (insert fart noise). As things stand, not a single Jaguars RB is going inside the top 30 fantasy RBs. If Liam Cohen can take Duuuuuvaaaaaaaal (you know the voice) to the next level, then surely there’s league-winning potential at these prices. For context, Cohen’s Bucs ranked third in yards per carry last season and 6th in EPA per rush attempt.

Etienne was a first-round pick back when Urban Meyer (lol) was the head coach, and it’s been a bit of an up-and-down career for him to this point. We’ve seen him dominate for fantasy, finishing as the RB3 overall two years ago on the back of 325 total touches, and we’ve also seen him lose work to Tank Bigsby and finish as the RB37 last season while really struggling with efficiency. Comparing the two head to head, Bigsby was easily the better runner of the two a year ago. Among 54 RBs with 75+ carries, Etienne was 46th in YPC (3.72), 43rd in Stuff Rate, and 51st in MTF/Att. He did play through a shoulder injury and missed two games because of a hamstring strain, so it’s possible injuries are part of the reason for his poor play, but compared to his metrics in 2022 and 2023, not ideal!

Bigsby, meanwhile, ranked 9th in RYOE/Att and led the NFL in yards after contact per attempt, with a whopping 72% of his rushing yards coming after contact. Considering Jacksonville’s line ranked 25th in run block win rate, Bigsby deserves a lot of credit for making something out of nothing, especially after a disastrous rookie year. The problem for fantasy is that while those metrics are hella nice, the man has seen a total of 16 targets since he entered the NFL. Unless you’re Derrick Henry, that’s a major issue in fantasy football and obviously caps his ceiling even if he wins the RB1 job.

Enter Tuten, who’s the exciting mystery box in this backfield. The 4th-round rookie does check a lot of boxes in terms of his prospect profile. Per JJ Zachiarison’s Prospect Guide: Since 2011, only seven running backs taken in the top-200 had a best-season reception share of 10% or better and a Speed Score at or above 115: Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Kalen Ballage, Latavius Murray, Antonio Gibson, Jonathan Taylor, and Breece Hall. Aside from Ballage, that’s quite the list of legit fantasy RBs!

Tuten blazed at the NFL Combine, running 4.32, giving him a speed score of 118.3. In our database, that’s a 96th percentile mark. On top of that, some of his metrics were fantastic during his final two years at Virginia Tech. He was 8th in the FBS in breakaway yards in 2024, showing off that big play ability, and he had more yards after contact per attempt (4.47) than just about every one of the top RBs in this class. Ashton Jeanty of course lapped the field at 5.25 (lol), but Tuten’s 4.47 mark was better than TreVeyon Henderson (4.43), Kaleb Johnson (4.42), Omarion Hampton (4.35), and RJ Harvey (3.88). Of course, that’s only one stat, and it doesn’t tell the whole story. He was a Day 3 pick, after all, and we know the hit rate on guys who go in Rounds 4-7 is not great. But still, Tuten’s do-it-all skillset and explosiveness make him one of my favorite sleepers for 2025…if he can hold onto the football, that is.

Entering camp, I’m expecting Etienne to be the “RB1,” and some local beats have suggested Etienne is the favorite to open the year as the starter, but as we saw last year in Tampa, being the RB1 in August doesn’t mean much if a more explosive rookie is waiting in the wings to steal some work. If Etienne plays well, he could hold off Tank and Tuten, but the rookie has some real late-season upside if the two incumbents stumble at all. For now, all three are worth stabs in drafts, with this being one of the more fascinating backfields in fantasy.

Kansas City Chiefs

How will the targets be distributed with Rice, Worthy, and Brown all healthy?

Last year, we saw exactly zero snaps on the field with all three of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Hollywood Brown on the field together. Rice suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4, while Hollywood Brown suffered an SC joint injury in August and didn’t return until Week 16. And of course, Travis Kelce is still there doing his thing despite starting to show some decline as he enters his age-36 season.

Since 2020, the Chiefs have ranked inside the top 10 in pass attempts per game in every season. Surely, as long as Andy Reid is there and Mahomes is healthy, KC will rank at or near the top of the league in pass rate. Assuming that remains true moving forward, there could be enough volume for two of these top three pass catchers to really hit at ADP. The odds-on favorite to lead the team in targets and catches is Rashee Rice, assuming his return from knee surgery continues to go according to plan. Since becoming a full-time player as a rookie, Rice has earned volume at an elite level, averaging 9.4 targets per game going back to Week 12 in 2023. If you want to look at some silly numbers, his 17-game pace last year using his Weeks 1-3 box scores? 164 targets, 136 catches, and 1,632 yards. Sure, small sample or whatever, but the man commands targets at one of the highest rates in the league. In 2024, he saw a target on 32% of his routes (lol).

In my opinion, the key to a secondary Chiefs WR really popping for fantasy is KC getting back to their explosive pass game, something that’s really been lacking since Tyreek Hill took his talents to South Beach (shoutout LeBron). Last off-season, there was a lot of talk about KC getting that element back in their offense, but it didn’t really come to fruition. For context, over the last two seasons, no QB has a lower aDOT than Mahomes, whose average depth going back to 2023 is just 6.4 yards.

In camp, I’ll definitely be looking to see if we can get any insight on the trajectory of this pass game, and more specifically, I’m interested to see what sort of role Worthy has in Year 2. In the first two months of the season, Worthy’s aDOT was all the way up at almost 12 yards, but after Rice went down and Worthy’s role in the offense grew, his aDOT shrank to 7.5 yards. That helped elevate his floor in fantasy, especially in PPR formats, but with Rice now back and likely dominating those short area targets, I wonder if they utilize that freakish 4.21 speed and get Worthy back to running more down field routes with a few designed touches thrown in there as well. All in all, I’m optimistic that we might actually see the Chiefs get back to their high flying ways of old. If they do, Mahomes could end up being a really nice value in drafts as his ADP is palatable for the first time in quite awhile.

Las Vegas Raiders

Who is the WR2 in Las Vegas?

For a team that won just four games last year and was borderline unwatchable at times, there really aren’t a ton of question marks about this depth chart. They’ve done a complete 180 in their personnel, but everyone is locked into their roles. Pete Carroll has been a coach in the NFL forever, so we know what’s going on there while Geno is locked in as QB1, Ashton Jeanty is very clearly RB1, Brock Bowers may already be the best TE in the league, and Jakobi Meyers is WR1 entering camp.

Behind those guys, the biggest question mark to me is this WR2 competition. The Raiders doubled up in the NFL Draft and took TCU’s Jack Bech in the second round and Tennessee’s Dont’e Thornton Jr. in the 4th round. Meanwhile, the undersized gadgety playmaker in Tre Tucker is still here. In theory, the draft capital would suggest the order is Bech > Thornton > Tucker, but early practice reports suggested that Thornton was getting more first-team reps than Bech. From a stylistic standpoint, Tucker and Thornton’s vertical speed (4.3 40-yard dash with 25.4 YPR in college) sort of overlap, while Bech’s possession style overlaps a bit with Jakobi’s.

It’s quite possible that this camp battle doesn’t mean anything this year if Meyers and Bowers both stay healthy. After all, we are talking about the third pass catcher at best in what should be one of the league’s most run-heavy schemes under former Eagles legend Chip Kelly. This is potentially more of a dynasty/best ball camp battle than one that matters a ton for redraft, but either way, I’ll be watching to see if Bech can beat out Thornton and the incumbent Tucker for the WR2 job across from Meyers.

Los Angeles Chargers

How limited will Najee Harris be in camp?

Sadly, we have to talk about the 4th of July incident with Harris. Per his agent, Harris suffered a “superficial eye injury” during that fireworks incident. His agent also expressed optimism about Harris being ready for Week 1. Before we take that as fact, we need to remind ourselves of the agents’ motivations. Clearly, he wants to express optimism about his client. He’s motivated to represent him in a positive way. I’m not saying he’s lying for anything like that, and Rapsheet recently said that he also expects Harris to be okay for Week 1, so maybe this is just a nothingburger…or maybe it’s not?

Ultimately, we won’t know until the Chargers veterans put on the pads in a week or so, but it is worth pointing out that Harris had to make visits to two different hospitals, suggesting that there’s potentially more to this injury than is being reported. Harris could be fine and enter Week 1 at 100%, but if he’s limited in any way, it opens the door for:

1. Omarion Hampton to steal that job right away and be a potential league winner and/or
2. The play calling to be more pass-heavy, just like we saw from Week 6 on last year

Los Angeles Rams

Who is the RB2 behind Kyren Williams?

Find someone who loves you the way Sean McVay loves Kyren Williams. Is Williams the most talented back in the league? Certainly not, but Sean McVay has not cared whatsoever. Williams has been a workhorse for the Rams in every sense of the word over the last two years. The only players with more carries than Kyren in 2024 were Saquon and Derrick Henry, and in 2023, he led the NFL in rush attempts per game at 19. “Punt returner” narrative be damned, Williams is the dude in this backfield, or at least he has been for the last couple of years.

For context on his efficiency, there were 46 RBs who saw 100+ carries last season. In that sample, he ranked 37th in yards after contact per attempt, 41st in Breakaway Rush Rate, and 38th in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Meanwhile, he put the ball on the turf six times last year, tied for the second-most of any RB. After the Rams used a third rounder on Blake Corum last year and a 4th round pick on Jarquez Hunter this year, some have questioned whether or not the Rams are hinting at moving away from Kyren’s insane workload. The fact that he’s currently in the final year of his rookie deal without a new contract (as of this writing) hasn’t helped that narrative, although there’s been plenty of optimism that a new deal will get done at some point in camp.

In my eyes, Kyren is the dude until he isn’t. The Rams have used a draft pick on an RB in eight straight drafts. 8!! Maybe Jarquez is just that good, but he’s a Day 3 back, and Blake Corum barely sniffed the field last year despite all of the timeshare concerns last August. I could be wrong about that, and if I am, then it’s crucial to monitor the RB2 battle in camp. But even if Kyren’s role is the exact same this season, we had better keep an eye on the RB2 competition either way.

Including the playoffs, Williams has touched the ball 662 times over the last two seasons. I’m obviously not predicting any injuries, but that’s A LOT of work for a sub 200-pound back. Should Williams miss time, there’s an opportunity for one of Corum or Hunter to provide top-15, top-12 type weeks in this offense. Based on lookahead Vegas lines, the Rams have the 11th-highest average team total in Weeks 1-17. We want pieces of this offense.

Miami Dolphins

How much does Tyreek Hill have left in the tank?

Blame it on the wrist injury, the fact that Tua missed games, age, or any combination of the three, and simply put, things were not great for the Cheetah in 2024, especially relative to his Round 1 ADP from a year ago. Entering 2025, many are trying to figure out if Hill’s poor performance in 2024 was due to the dreaded age cliff. If it was, he’s a scary click. If it was just a blip on the radar, he has league-winning potential at his third-round ADP. Let’s dive in…

From 2016 to 2023, Hill averaged 2+ yards per route run in every season. Dang man, that’s impressive! If we just look at his seasons in Miami, he was averaging video game type efficiency with 3.39 YPRR in 2022 and 2023 combined while being targeted on 33% (!!) of his routes. I mean, goodness…

In 2024, we saw Hill set career lows in YPRR (1.75) and YAC/Reception (3.5), and he was targeted on just 22.1% of his routes. Uhhhh, excuse me, Arthur Smith, but I do need to apologize for questioning your usage of Jonnu Smith back in 2023. Jonnu was freakin’ awesome this past year, to his credit, but Mike McDaniel, what are we doing here, brother? Choosing to feed Jonnu instead of Tyreek and Waddle was…well, something. And obviously, no one saw it coming. Well, Smith is now gone and being replaced with the rapper Darren Waller, who’s coming out of retirement for one last go at it.

If we just assume some of Smith’s 111 targets go back to Tyreek, that’s obviously a feather in Tyreek’s cap. And on top of that, if you dive into Hill’s splits with and without Tua a year ago, his 2024 wasn’t quite as bad as the raw numbers might suggest. In six games without Tua last year, Hill averaged just 9.0 PPR points per game, 4.12 receptions, and 44.2 yards on 5.83 targets per game. With Tua, those numbers balloon to 14.9 PPR points per game, 5.1 catches, and 63.1 yards on 7.8 targets per contest.

For context, that 17-game pace is roughly 1,073 yards on 87 receptions – Not incredible, but not terrible either. All in all, after digging in further, I find myself more in than out on Tyreek, especially in the third round of drafts, but I do acknowledge there’s at least a chance he’s approaching the age cliff. He’s 31 years old, which is certainly past his prime, but the guy is out here setting PR’s in the 100m dash this off-season, so how bad could it be? His average separation per NextGenStats this past year was 3.2 yards, which is right in line with where he was in 2023 (3.3) and 2022 (3.3). Meanwhile, his Open Score per ESPN was 82 (T-9th best) this past season, which is right in line with where he was in 2023 when his score was 83, which was the 4th-best mark in the league.

Minnesota Vikings

How much will Jordan Mason eat into Aaron Jones‘ workload?

There were a few options here with Minnesota. Perhaps the most obvious one is what J.J. McCarthy will do in his first season as the starter, but that’s obvious. Another one to look for with the Vikings is how many games Jordan Addison is suspended due to his 2024 DUI citation. To me, one of the most interesting storylines is the RB room. Jones’ first season in Minnesota went quite well for fantasy football, with the veteran finishing as the RB16 on the back of a career high 306 total touches.

That said, it’s tough to look at some of the advanced numbers and say that Jones is the same back he was a few years ago in Green Bay. Despite setting career highs in total opportunities (317) and rushing yards (1,138), Jones ranked in the middle of the pack or below average in most advanced rushing statistics. Among RBs with 90+ carries, he was 24th in NextGenStats’ Rushing Yards over Expected per Attempt (RYOE/Att), 36th in Breakaway Rush Rate, 27th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/Att), and 41st in Missed Tackles Forced per Attempt (MTF/Att).

The Vikings’ offensive line finished the season at 16th in PFF’s run block grade and 15th in ESPN’s run block win rate, but entering 2025, PFF has them ranked 7th in their preseason rankings after Minnesota invested heavily in the interior of their line. Perhaps Jones can return to his hyper-efficient ways if that line is a top-10 unit, but entering his age-31 season coming off a career-high touches, it’s fair to wonder if the age cliff is slowly approaching.

Meanwhile, the Vikings traded for Jordan Mason this offseason, and there are plenty of rumblings about a split for 2025. Perhaps more importantly for fantasy, there’s a lot of talk out of Vikings camp about Mason being involved in the red zone as a potential TD vulture and short-yardage back. To Mason’s credit, he made the most of his opportunities last year with CMC out of the lineup. He was one of the NFL’s most efficient backs, besting Jones in just about every rushing category. He was third in RYOE/Att, 6th in Breakaway Rush Rate, 10th in YCO/Att, and 6th in MTF/Att. I think Jones has earned the trust of Kevin O’Connell, and the team obviously loves him after signing him to a two-year extension this past offseason, but depending on the split here, Mason could have standalone FLEX value with high-end RB2 contingent upside should Jones miss time.

New England Patriots

Where is Stefon Diggs at in his recovery?

There’s a ton of optimism in fantasy land for Drake Maye entering 2025, and believe me, I’m guilty of feeding that fire. Yes, we should see plenty of scrambling for Maye this year, which will help elevate his floor/ceiling combo, but for Maye to really make the leap in Year 2, he’s going to have to get much improved WR play in 2025. Sure, Pop Douglas and Kayshon Boutte are fine depth players in the league, but Maye is highly unlikely to make that leap without Kyle Williams playing very well as a rookie or Stefon Diggs returning to form off that ACL surgery.

So for me, the biggest thing I’m watching in Pats camp is the health of Diggs. He tore his ACL in Week 8 last year and underwent surgery in November. Compared to Brandon Aiyuk (see below) I’m much more bullish on Diggs’ chances of returning to 100% this year given that Diggs’ injury was an isolated ACL tear. Generally speaking, these are easier to come back from and carry a more predictable recovery. Diggs was able to participate in portions of the Patriots’ off-season program, but based on limited video, he was still favoring that surgically repaired right knee. That was back in June, just seven months after his surgery. The vast majority of research shows that players with an isolated ACL injury can return to the field somewhere between 9 and 12 months, which means there’s a realistic chance that Diggs is ready to go for Week 1.

Now, return to play does not equal return to performance. On average, it takes about a month for players to ramp up once they’re back on the field. If Diggs can ramp up throughout camp and September, he could be a big factor in helping Maye take a step forward in Year 2 with Josh McDaniels. We do have to acknowledge that Diggs isn’t exactly in his prime any longer, but last year in Houston during his age 30/31 season, his per route numbers were solid. He averaged 1.84 yards per route and 23% of his routes while playing next to Nico Collins and Tank Dell. In this offense, he should be the clear #1 option when healthy, and if last year’s numbers are any indication, we’ll probably see a ton of high percentage looks from Diggs in the slot. In 2024, after leaving Buffalo, Diggs lined up in the slot on 53% of his snaps per PFF. That mark was easily a career high, and if that trend continues this year, he should see enough volume to help mitigate the age/injury concerns, especially in full PPR formats. Coming off the board as the WR43 in drafts, Diggs has the potential to be a sneaky value, assuming his recovery goes according to plan.

New Orleans Saints

What will Kellen Moore‘s offense look like with the Saints?

Kellen Moore‘s first gig as a head coach will come with challenges. Have ya seen the QB depth chart? Now, major major caveat – the QB play could be the worst in the NFL, BUT when Kellen Moore has been in charge of play calling, his offenses have been awesome. Again, huge caveat here considering he coached Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts, but the point remains – his schemes are generally pretty fantasy friendly.

In six seasons as an OC in Dallas, LA, and Philly, he’s produced a top-seven scoring offense four times. Everywhere new Moore has gone, he’s led fast-paced offenses. Even last year, when Philly was able to feed Saquon and be the run-heaviest offense in the league, they were 8th in neutral pace. In Dallas, his Cowboys ranked first, first, second, and fourth in neutral pace, and in 2023 with the Chargers, they were fourth in pace. A fast-paced offense seems likely at this point, and New Orleans does play 10 of their 17 games inside a dome in 2025. Considering they’re underdogs in 16 of 17 games based on Vegas lookahead lines, they’re likely to be forced to throw in negative game scripts.

The most likely outcome here is that Tyler Shough is #bad. But what if he’s not? What if Kellen Moore can get serviceable QB play out of this ragtag crew? A fast-paced offense with some ballers in the form of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara…how bad could it be? I’m not saying to aggressively target Saints in drafts, but there’s a chance we look back at these ADPs and kick ourselves for pushing them down boards this far. As of mid-July, Kamara (RB18), Olave (WR32), and Shaheed (WR54) are quite affordable.

New York Giants

When will Jaxson Dart take over?

The Giants’ front office and HC Brian Daboll are firmly in ‘Save My Job’ mode. In the betting markets, Daboll is the ‘favorite’ to be the first coach fired. After disappointing seasons that led the G-Men to pick 6th overall and 3rd overall in back-to-back NFL Drafts, Daniel Jones’ magical playoff run back in 2022 feels like a lifetime ago. Entering 2025, the Giants have just a 5.5 win total, and they’re +2500 to win the NFC East. So yeah, the smart folks out in Vegas aren’t expecting good things to happen at MetLife.

So if the Giants do struggle again this year, what does that mean for the QB room? Russell Wilson will definitely enter camp and Week 1 as the QB1 atop the depth chart, but if the Giants lose games in September and October, it’s only a matter of time before fans and the media start calling for Jaxson Dart, who was selected in the back of the first round after the Giants traded back into Round 1. The opening schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, making it highly unlikely (dare I say impossible) New York has a winning record when we get to November.

In Weeks 1-12, the Giants get the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, Chargers, Saints, Eagles twice, Broncos, 49ers, Bears, Packers, and Lions. Oh my goodness…It’d be nice if they had a Week 7 bye or something like that so that they can pre-plan for extra time for Dart to take over, but with this gauntlet and a late-season Week 13 bye, it’s going to be very difficult to plan around Dart’s debut.

New York Jets

What will the RB split look like between Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and Isaiah Davis?

The Jets figure to be one of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams in the league in 2025. On paper, they’ve got one of the best defenses in the league, they hired a defensive-oriented head coach, they’ve got PFF’s 9th-ranked offensive line entering the 2025 campaign, Justin Fields is under center, and the WR2 right now is Josh Friggin’ Reynolds or Allen Lazard. Fields entered the NFL in 2021, and since then, his teams have ranked 29th, 28th, 32nd, and 23rd in pass attempts per game. Honestly, the Jets ranking higher than 25th in pass attempts per game would shock me. So if all signs point to a run-heavy game plan, we should obviously have some interest in the RBs here.

It’s impossible to scroll X right now and not see/hear clips of new HC Aaron Glenn bringing up a committee approach or talking up the talent in his backfield. So, is it smoke, or is this going to be a full-blown committee? Unfortunately, we don’t have any historical numbers to look at for Glenn, given that this is his first go around at the helm. His OC Tanner Engstrand joins his staff after being with Glenn in Detroit as the pass game coordinator from 2022 to 2024 and an offensive assistant from 2021 to 2022. Obviously, Engstrand wasn’t calling the shots at the RB position, but both he and Glenn have ties to Detroit, where we’ve seen a 2-man committee backfield for a few years now. Obviously, we’ve had the Gibbs/Montgomery split, but even before that, we had D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams splitting touches. Based on their backgrounds and recent coach speak, it’s reasonable to expect some sort of committee approach. We’ll see what the touches and rotation look like in camp…

Philadelphia Eagles

Will the Eagles have to throw more in 2025?

The Eagles absolutely crushed in 2024, and it ultimately led to Philly hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. What was the recipe? An elite defense that ranked third in EPA per play, first in Success Rate, and first in yards per play, a bad ass offensive line, and some guy named Saquon Barkley. In 2024, the Eagles ranked dead last in PROE (-8.9%) with Jalen Hurts attempting just 25.5 attempts per game. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

In the first half of games, Hurts averaged 17.8 dropbacks per game, which was 14th in the league. In the second half, he only dropped back 11.3 times per game, including 86 total drop-backs in the 4th quarter of games. In other words, Philly was league average in pass rate in the first half of contests, then after they got out to a lead, they fed Saquon relentlessly in the second half of games. No team trailed for fewer snaps in the second half of games last year than Philly. Sooo….what if that doesn’t happen this year?

The Eagles lost Josh Sweat and Milton Williams in free agency, and naturally, it’s difficult to repeat excellence on the defensive side of the ball. Even if the defense remains great, the schedule alone should force Philly into more competitive back-and-forth environments. In 2024, the Eagles’ strength of schedule was one of the easiest in the league. This year, their SOS is the fourth-most difficult. No team in the league has a higher delta from 2024 to 2025 in terms of their schedule. It won’t be as easy to feed Saquon in positive game scripts this year.

Per the great Rich Hribar, Hurts had A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert all on the field together for just 18.1% of his drop-backs. If those guys can all stay healthy and the Eagles are pushed to throw more, we could see Hurts obliterate his pass game numbers from a year ago. In 2022 and 2023, he averaged 236.9 pass yards per game. In 2024, that number crashed all the way down to 206.6 yards per game with Saquon stealing the show. One more stat for ya just to highlight how outlier their run game was a year ago: The Eagles’ 48.9% pass rate in 2024 was the third-lowest of any team since 2016. Let’s get some A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on our teams and see what happens!

Pittsburgh Steelers

What will the RB split look like between Kaleb Johnson and Jaylen Warren?

A LOT has changed in Pittsburgh. Najee is gone, Russ Wilson and Justin Fields aren’t under center, and George Pickens is now in Dallas. This offense is going to look brand new (in some ways) this year with Aaron Rodgers, D.K. Metcalf, Arthur Smith’s BFF Jonnu Smith, and rookie RB Kaleb Johnson now in town. Obviously, there’s a lot to monitor here in camp, but for fantasy, I think the biggest question mark and potential edge is the RB room.

Since Arthur Smith became a play caller in the NFL back in 2019, his offenses have ranked top-10 in total rush attempts and top-11 in rushing yards in five of six seasons. Given that there isn’t a WR2 to speak of on this roster, that trend will probably continue in 2025, but there is this small question mark in the back of my mind about whether or not Rodgers is cool with handing it off and only attempting, let’s say, 23 to 25 passes per game. But if Mike Tomlin and Artie their way, this team will play “Steeler football,” lean on their defense, and run the rock.

So if that’s the case, what should we expect from the rookie and incumbent Jaylen Warren? Given the ambiguity here, both backs are targets for me at ADP. Tomlin has called Johnson “a volume back,” and going back to his time at Iowa, that’s exactly what he was. A workhorse in every sense of the word, Johnson’s 52% Dominator Rating in 2024 is the best mark in this year’s class. In other words, he was the offense at Iowa. If Pittsburgh can get out to a lead in certain game scripts, I could easily see a path for 18+ carries for the talented rookie, who could be a perfect fit in Arthur Smith’s scheme.

There’s a few ways where Johnson disappoints, however. Aaron Rodgers is very much a ‘trust’ QB. Blow a blocking assignment, fumble, run the wrong route, etc., and you best believe Rodgers will be asking for Jaylen Warren, who by the way, is #good at the game. Since he entered the NFL, he leads the entire league in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranks sixth in explosive rush rate. On top of that, we are talking about the guy who voluntarily played Tyler Allgeier a lot during Bijan Robinson‘s rookie year. Bijan was the 8th pick in the NFL Draft and was still getting subbed out for Allgeier at times. I like Johnson, but he was a third-round pick, so let’s just lay that out there. While I want to be in on Kaleb, I do acknowledge that there is a world that exists where Warren is an awesome pick at ADP. Given the pros and cons of both guys and the massive contingent upside should either one miss time, the answer to which Pittsburgh RB I want is “yes.” I want both guys if I’m drafting multiple teams. There’s league winning upside scenarios for both backs, especially at cost. Based on our ADP Platform Comparison Tool in the UDK, Johnson is, on average, the RB29 off the board with Warren right behind him at RB32. Given the ambiguity here, I expect the ADP for both guys to remain in check, making them perfect targets as part of hero/zero RB builds.

San Francisco 49ers

Where is Brandon Aiyuk at in his recovery?

The 49ers were the most injury-affected team in the NFL a year ago. Naturally, we start their 2025 season preview talking about injuries! There were a lot of ways I could have gone with this question – the health status of CMC, whether or not Ricky Pearsall can take a step forward in Year 2 or even the contract status/trade request of Jauan Jennings. But after Brandon Aiyuk signed a huge contract last off-season on the back of a career year in 2023, I’m fascinated to see how well Aiyuk plays off his ACL surgery.

His injury has a ripple-down effect on the playing time and target shares of Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle, so having a good understanding of this situation is pretty key for fantasy drafters. Aiyuk suffered a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus in Week 7, but he didn’t have surgery until November of this past year. Given the multi-ligament injury here, we should naturally expect Aiyuk to take a bit longer to recover and reach full health. He’ll definitely start training camp on PUP, but will he begin the regular season on PUP and miss the first four games? If so, how long does it take him to ramp up to a full snap share? I’ll be closely watching Aiyuk throughout August to see if we can get a better idea of where he’s at in his recovery. There’s a real possibility he’s not fantasy relevant until November or December, and if that’s the case, the workloads for the proven assets in this offense (CMC and Kittle) could be massive, especially early in the year.

Seattle Seahawks

How much does Cooper Kupp have left in the tank?

Seattle is fascinating this year. They’re basically a brand new team in every sense of the word. Darnold is in for Geno, Metcalf and Lockett are gone, the O-line got revamped, and they replaced last year’s pass-happy OC Ryan Grubb with run-first OC Klint Kubiak. Following their moves, there’s a wide, wide range of outcomes for the Seahawks in 2025. There’s a lot to digest here, but perhaps the biggest question for me is whether or not Cooper Kupp has reached the cliff.

Kupp has been a fantasy stud for years in LA, but it’s been a disappointing few years since his magical 2021 triple crown season. Since then, Kupp has played in 9, 12, and 12 games, with injuries starting to take their toll. I don’t think ESPN’s Open Score is a perfect metric, but it’s hard to ignore the trend for Kupp. Over the last four years, his rating in that metric is 76 (13th) > 55 (56th) > 47 (72nd) > 37 (107th). Meanwhile, his YAC per reception has also declined in four straight seasons: 6.0 > 5.6 > 5.3 > 3.8. Now 32 years old and changing teams for the first time in his career after the Rams chose Davante Adams over him, it’s fair to wonder if this is the beginning of the end for our beloved CoopaKuppaCoffee.

And oh by the way, he leaves some guy named Matthew Freaking Stafford, who’s been a printing press for fantasy WRs throughout his entire career, and one of the NFL’s best play callers in Sean McVay. I don’t want to be the one to put this out there, but Sam Darnold turning into a pumpkin is a real possibility. He leaves the dome, Kevin O’Connell, and a top-10 skill group headlined by Justin Jefferson and now goes out west to the cold, rainy weather in Seattle to play for an unproven OC with a skill group that certainly has some warts. While the Seahawks did invest in the offensive line this offseason, they have to improve a ton this year for this thing to work. They finished 2024 as PFF’s 25th-ranked pass-blocking unit and ranked 21st in ESPN’s pass block win rate. For context, the Vikings ranked second in pass block win rate. Could Darnold be seeing ghosts again?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Where is Chris Godwin at in his recovery?

Prior to going down with a season-ending ankle injury in Week 7, Godwin was arguably the most valuable pick in fantasy drafts. Going in the 6th or 7th round for most of the off-season last year, Godwin returned major value. In Weeks 1-7, Godwin was averaging 7.1 catches and 82 yards per game as fantasy’s WR2. Among all WRs in that sample, he led the NFL in catches and was second in yards behind only Ja’Marr Chase. Clearly, his involvement in this offense is huge to what they do…so what can we expect for 2025?

Godwin suffered an ankle fracture-dislocation in that October Monday night game against the Ravens. He underwent surgery to stabilize the fracture and repair the torn ligaments in his left ankle. From a healing standpoint, I do expect Godwin to be cleared at some point in camp, but the Bucs have not shared many details on Godwin’s recovery. They did give him a big contract in free agency, so obviously, they must feel good about his chances of returning to form, but his recovery has a major impact on his teammates’ early-season outlook for fantasy. When he was healthy last year, Godwin was seeing a 27% target share.

If he’s coming along slowly or misses a game or two to start the year, that has big-time implications for the target shares of guys like Mike Evans and first round pick, Emeka Egbuka. And of course, a healthy Godwin is crucial to Baker Mayfield‘s chances of repeating as a top-5 fantasy QB. I’ll be closely monitoring health reports on Godwin throughout August, and fantasy gamers should too.

Tennessee Titans

Will the RB room actually be a split?

The most obvious thing to monitor in Tennessee is the development of the #1 overall pick, Cam Ward. But after head coach Brian Callahan came out and openly talked about an RB split for the second year in a row, I thought that was a bit more important for fantasy drafts. In 2024, after the Titans signed Tony Pollard, Callahan said, “I see Tyjae as a really impactful player and a guy that we have to make sure has his requisite touches to help our offense.”

Here was the RB split in 2024:

• Snap share: Pollard – 68%, Spears – 43%
• RB Rush share: Pollard – 76%, Spears – 35%
• RB Target share: Pollard – 63%, Spears – 47%

For context on Pollard’s workload, he was 8th in total rush attempts and tied for 9th in targets. In fact, he was one of just five RBs to average 16+ rush attempts and 3.5+ targets per game. So, no this was not a split whatsoever. However, context is needed. Spears was really banged up last year. He sprained his ankle early in the year, missed Weeks 7-9 with a hamstring strain, and missed Weeks 12 and 18 due to concussions. In other words, Spears wasn’t really healthy at all in 2024.

In 2025, we have Callahan once again suggesting he’d like to see more of a split in the backfield. In late May, he said, “I think in a perfect world, it’s a healthier division of labor. I like both of these players a lot. I think we can do a better job of managing that load so they both play a little more evenly.” Was 2024 the norm, and Callahan is just blowing smoke? Or was he unable to share the touches given Spears’ health issues a year ago?

It’s not perfect, and it’s a small sample size, but we only have a handful of games with Spears and Pollard both playing together before Spears’ health issues popped up. In Weeks 1-4, Pollard dominated the touches. In that first month prior to the hamstring strain, Pollard lapped Spears in snap share (64% to 38%) and total opportunities (77 to 39). If Pollard continues to see that workload, he looks like a rock-solid RB2. If a split does come to fruition, Pollard’s floor suddenly becomes quite low.

Washington Commanders

How will Deebo Samuel‘s arrival affect the Washington pass game?

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders took the league by storm in 2024, making an improbable run to the NFC Championship game. Offensively, the team will look quite similar to what we saw last year – both RBs are back, Terry McLaurin is still there doing his thing (and waiting for a contract extension), and Zach Ertz should remain TE1 after he signed a one-year deal in free agency to run it back for his *lowers glasses, raises eyebrows* age 35 season. The old man just won’t quit! The biggest (and pretty much only) loss here is Olamide Zacchaeus, who vacates 64 targets.

The biggest addition this off-season? Former 49ers WR Deebo Samuel. The biggest questions for fantasy gamers here with Deebo are:1) How much does he have left in the tank? and 2) How will he fit in this Kliff Kingsbury offense?

Let’s start with the first question. Deebo has had some insane outlier years with Kyle Shanahan and San Francisco. In 2024, Deebo put up his fewest scrimmage yards per game (just 53.7) since 2019, and the underlying metrics weren’t pretty. His 8.7 yards per touch was a career low, while his 8.2 YAC/Reception was also a career low mark. A bully with the ball in his hands, that YAC ability has been crucial to Deebo’s success both in real-life NFL terms but also in fantasy land. Unfortunately, the trend here is not great. For five straight years, his YAC/Reception mark has declined 12.2 > 10.8 > 9.6 > 8.7 > 8.2. That trend is not pretty, obviously, but some context is important.

Samuel injured his calf early in the season, he played through a rib injury, and the man spent days in the hospital because of pneumonia. It’s fair to say Deebo was, in fact, NOT in the best shape of his life last year. So, how much of that is Samuel approaching the age cliff, and how much of that was injury related? It’s hard to say, but the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. One thing is clear – Deebo is probably not the same guy he was even two or three years ago.

As for his fit in the offense, I’m actually a huge fan:

A few thoughts on Deebo to WAS

*Samuel is no longer a winner vs. man coverage (1.14 & 1.39 YPRR last 2 szns)

*BUT he is an obvious upgrade over their WR2/3 last year & could still be effective after the catch

*In '24, WAS was top-5 in use of WR screens but they were:
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— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) March 3, 2025

If Deebo has any gas left in the tank, he could end up being a sneaky value in drafts as a WR3/4 for your squad. To me, he’s actually a perfect fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, and we know Terry McLaurin‘s ridiculous 11.1% TD rate from a year ago is bound to regress. In camp, I’ll be closely monitoring reports on Deebo, in particular his usage in the screen game. Even if he isn’t the same player he was a couple of years ago, I do believe this acquisition can only help Jayden Daniels and the Washington pass game. Time will tell…