2024 NFL Draft: Running Back Landing Spots
Heading into the off-season, we already knew this running back class was among the weaker ones in recent history. However, with four running backs receiving day two capital, we could still see one or two of them emerge for fantasy football as soon as this year.
As you can see in the chart below, running backs drafted in the first round are almost always guaranteed to finish with at least one fantasy-relevant season (85%). Day two running back hit rates remain very solid, though significantly lower at around 43%. The main takeaway, however, is that day-three running backs are far less likely to emerge for fantasy football as their hit rates are only 12.2%. In other words, we have to temper our expectations, especially for running backs drafted outside the top three rounds.
Editor’s Note: For a complete look at each RB’s production profile and our rookie rankings for Dynasty, check out the Dynasty Pass part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+.
Jonathon Brooks – Carolina Panthers
Round 2, Pick 46
Jonathon Brooks should be the consensus RB1 of this draft class. Not only was he the first running back selected in the NFL draft, but he also landed with a team in desperate need of explosiveness and efficiency at the running back position. When healthy, Brooks addresses both of those needs, averaging nearly 6.9 yards per touch in his collegiate career and 2.03 Yards per Team Play (86th percentile) in his final season at Texas. As for his competition, Chuba Hubbard is in the final year of his contract, while Miles Sanders has zero dollars guaranteed beyond this season. In short, Brooks is undoubtedly the future of the Panthers’ backfield. As a result, I fully expect him to emerge sooner rather than later in Dave Canales’ offense.
Trey Benson – Arizona Cardinals
Round 3, Pick 66
Similar to Brooks, Trey Benson enters his NFL career in a slightly crowded backfield. While Brooks has to only contend with two inefficient running backs, Benson has to battle for touches with James Conner, who had a surprisingly productive 2023 campaign. However, at 29 years old and in the final year of his contract, I would be shocked if Conner was re-signed after this season. So while Benson will likely split touches in his rookie year, he should eventually become the RB1 of an explosive Cardinals’ offense that ranked only 29th in Pass Rate Over Expected in 2023.
Blake Corum – Los Angeles Rams
Round 3, Pick 83
The Los Angeles Rams had very little depth behind Kyren Williams, which led to the selection of Blake Corum in the third round. With a very well-rounded skillset, Corum should be an immediate contributor to the Rams’ offense. However, I do expect his touches to be limited in his rookie year. With Williams likely retaining a sizable role after a dominant 2023 campaign, Corum will likely only be a low-end flex option for fantasy football this season. And with Williams still under contract through the 2025 campaign, I expect Corum’s upside to be capped to start his career.
Marshawn Lloyd – Green Bay Packers
Round 3, Pick 88
Marshawn Lloyd enters his NFL career as the RB2 of the Packers’ offense after they recently signed Josh Jacobs to a four-year deal. And even though A.J. Dillon is still on the roster, Lloyd is likely the more explosive option at this point in their respective careers. Keep in mind, however, that Green Bay was 9th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expected in 2023, implying that they prefer to pass the ball when given the opportunity. And with Jacobs likely assuming a high-usage role in Matt LaFleur’s offense, Lloyd should be mostly considered a backup option in his rookie year.
Jaylen Wright – Miami Dolphins
Round 4, Pick 120
Jaylen Wright was the first running back drafted in the fourth round. As a reminder, day three running backs have a much lower hit rate for fantasy football. And considering Wright is set to join a Dolphins offense that already has two very efficient running backs in DeVon Achane and Raheem Mostert, his opportunity in 2024 will likely be very limited. Unless Mostert experiences a decline, Wright will have to battle for touches as the RB3 in Miami this season.
Bucky Irving – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 4, Pick 125
Rachaad White received over 340 opportunities in 2023, while only averaging 4.6 yards per touch (RB33). While White should remain the RB1, I would be surprised if they leaned on him as heavily as they did last season, considering that type of workload is likely unsustainable. As a result, I expect his usage to decline with the recent addition of Bucky Irving, who immediately profiles as a receiving option out of the backfield. However, with White still expected to operate as the primary rusher, Irving should be mostly considered a low-floor PPR option for fantasy purposes.
Will Shipley – Philadelphia Eagles
Round 4, Pick 127
Will Shipley had a very accomplished career at Clemson, totaling over 3,300 scrimmage yards in three seasons. However, I would be shocked if he emerged as a fantasy-relevant option this season as the Eagles recently signed Saquon Barkley to a three-year deal. Barring injury, this should be Barkley’s backfield in 2024, limiting the upside of any other running back on the Eagles’ roster.
Ray Davis – Buffalo Bills
Round 4, Pick 128
The Buffalo Bills are one of the more intriguing landing spots for a rookie running back. While they do have an established option in James Cook, they needed another running back to replace Latavius Murray’s role in the red zone (9th in rushes inside the five-yard line in 2023). Ray Davis could fit that mold at 211 pounds, totaling over 20 touchdowns in his final season at Kentucky. While Cook should remain the lead running back for the Bills, Davis has an opportunity to be a short-yardage option for an explosive Buffalo offense.
Isaac Guerendo – San Francisco 49ers
Round 4, Pick 129
While the 49ers are one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the league, it is difficult to envision an immediate role for Isaac Guerendo. With Christian McCaffrey projected to receive elite usage once again in 2024, there will likely be very few opportunities available for the rest of the backfield. Even then, Elijah Mitchell should still be the RB2 on their depth chart (when healthy), leaving Guerendo with a very limited role in 2024.
Braelon Allen – New York Jets
Round 4, Pick 134
Similar to the 49ers, the New York Jets were one of the worst landing spots for a rookie running back. With Breece Hall emerging as the established RB1 for New York, Braelon Allen’s opportunities will be few and far between in his rookie year. So even though Allen was one of the most accomplished collegiate running backs over the last three seasons (30% weighted dominator rating), he will likely be relegated to a backup role for the Jets to start his career.
Audric Estimé – Denver Broncos
Round 5, Pick 147
Similar to Allen, Audric Estime enters his NFL career with a very productive collegiate resume, averaging 2.00 Yards per Team Play and totaling over 1,400 scrimmage yards in his final season at Notre Dame. As for his landing spot, keep in mind that Samaje Perine and Javonte Williams are both in the final years of their contract. And considering the Broncos are approaching a rebuild with Bo Nix and a very young offense, there could be an opportunity for Estime to emerge next season. However, after only receiving fifth-round capital, we need to temper our expectations as the Broncos could simply draft another day-two running back in 2025 to address their lack of depth beyond this season.
Rasheen Ali – Baltimore Ravens
Round 5, Pick 165
The Baltimore Ravens did not waste any time improving their running back room this off-season, signing Derrick Henry to a two-year deal. While the deal does go through the 2025 season, Henry’s guaranteed dollars drop to zero next season. As a result, the Ravens are not tied to him beyond this season if he does decline in his age-30 campaign. That opens up the opportunity for Rasheen Ali, who averaged nearly 115 scrimmage yards per game in his four seasons at Marshall. While there is a path to production for Ali, I would remain cautious as the Ravens could easily add more competition next season. Until then, Henry will be the unquestioned RB1 for Baltimore.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. – New York Giants
Round 5, Pick 166
Saquon Barkley accounted for 40% of the Giants’ opportunities when healthy, ranking as the RB5 in Expected Points in 2023. Naturally, his departure opens up the opportunity for another running back to emerge and take on a significant role this season. Unfortunately, Tyrone Tracy is unlikely to assume that role, a six-year prospect who recently converted to running back after playing wide receiver for most of his career. Even as a 23-year-old full-time running back, Tracy barely produced, averaging only 1.1 Yards per Team Play and 19.7% of the team’s scrimmage yards in 2023. With Devin Singletary signing a three-year deal this off-season, he projects to be the lead running back for New York, at least until next off-season.
Keilan Robinson – Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 5, Pick 167
Similar to Isaac Guerendo and Braelon Allen, Keilan Robinson will be stuck behind an established RB1 in Travis Etienne. Beyond that, the Jaguars also invested a day-two pick in Tank Bigsby last year, cementing his role as the RB2 for Jacksonville. As a result, Keilan Robinson – who possesses a very mediocre college production profile – is likely nothing more than a depth option for the Jaguars.
Isaiah Davis – New York Jets
Round 5, Pick 173
As I discussed above, the Jets are not an ideal landing spot for any rookie running back. That includes Isaiah Davis, who was selected nearly 40 picks after Braelon Allen. As a result, I do not expect Davis to receive many opportunities this season behind Breece Hall. In fact, if I had to choose a Jets backup running back, I would prefer Allen, who produced at a similar rate in a much more competitive conference.
Kimani Vidal – Los Angeles Chargers
Round 6, Pick 181
Kimani Vidal lands on a Chargers team that has completely revamped their backfield. After leaning on Austin Ekeler over the last six seasons, Los Angeles signed both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in free agency. However, keep in mind that both players are essentially on a one-year deal (Edwards has zero dollars guaranteed in 2025). Therefore, this could open up an opportunity for Vidal, who possesses a very well-rounded skillset as a rusher and receiver. Especially if Dobbins struggles to regain his burst after suffering a torn Achilles, Vidal could emerge as the RB2 in what should be a run-heavy offense under Jim Harbaugh.
Jase McLellan – Atlanta Falcons
Round 6, Pick 186
This backfield belongs to Bijan Robinson as all signs point to him receiving elite usage in Zac Robinson’s offense. With Tyler Allgeier set to return as the RB2, there are likely very few opportunities for Jase McLellan to make an impact this season.
Jawhar Jordan – Houston Texans
Round 6, Pick 205
Jawhar Jordon joins a Houston Texans team that recently committed to Joe Mixon as their lead running back. After signing a three-year deal with significant cap hits through the 2025 season, Mixon will likely operate as the RB1 for the Texans over the next two years. With Dameon Pierce also under contract for at least two more seasons, Jordan is unlikely to assume a sizable role in this offense.
Dylan Laube – Las Vegas Raiders
Round 6, Pick 208
Ironically, the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the best situation for a running back, except they waited to draft one until the sixth round. With only Zamir White (fourth-round pick) and Alexander Mattison (one-year contract) leading the depth chart, there is a path to opportunity for a rookie to emerge for the Raiders. Enter Dylan Laube, who is the most accomplished receiving running back in this class. In fact, he leads them in Career Receiving Yards Market Share with 17.7%. To put that into context, Laube ranks second in that metric among ALL running backs drafted since 2013, behind only David Johnson. In addition, he averaged over 6.2 yards per touch in his career, while dominating in his final season at New Hampshire with 2.09 Yards per Team Play. At the very least, Laube has an opportunity to be the primary receiving option out of the backfield for the Raiders. And even though his likelihood of breaking out as a day-three pick is very low, Laube is still an intriguing pick at his ADP.