NFL Player Props for Super Bowl LV
Welcome in to a brand new segment here in the DFS pass – player props! If this is something you’d be interested moving forward in the DFS Pass, shoot me a DM on Twitter and let me know your thoughts. Let’s dive in!
The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet event in the United States, and watching the big game is always a ton of fun if you have a little bit of skin in the game. While the Fantasy Footballers brand isn’t known for betting, player props are the easiest way to gain an edge in sports betting because it is so closely related to fantasy football. When betting player props, you’re analyzing matchups, trends, injuries, etc – just like you do when you’re setting a DFS or a redraft fantasy lineup. Before diving into my favorite player props for Super Bowl LIV between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers, let’s take a quick look at general strategy around prop betting.
Prop Betting Strategy
1. Unders hit more than overs.
Based on statistical data, unders on player props hit at about a 55% rate vs. a 45% rate for overs. This is important to note because the general public likes to bet for things to happen rather than against things to happen. There’s nothing better than watching the final drive of a Chiefs game knowing you only need 10 more yards for Tyreek Hill to hit his receiving yards prop. But, in reality, unders are generally more profitable, and that’s because betting books tend to adjust the lines knowing that the general public will bet the over if given the choice. One major other reason that unders hit at a higher rate is that we simply can’t predict injury. There’s nothing worse than needing one more reception from Will Fuller and boom, he’s out with a hamstring issue.