NFL DFS Vegas Report for Week 8 (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 8
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 8
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
Popular Game Stacks
With both AFC South franchises coming off back-to-back wins, the Titans travel to Indy to take on Carson Wentz and the Colts in a divisional showdown with a total hovering around 50 points. On a slate with barely any games that have a total north of 50 points, this game is likely to be popular in DFS stacks, especially considering the price of the popular players on both teams. Derrick Henry ($8,900), Jonathan Taylor ($7,200), Julio Jones ($5,800), and Michael Pittman ($5,300) all have enticing price tags on DraftKings, making it easy to stack this game in an affordable way. Even A.J. Brown‘s $6,900 tag is fair, making him in play in this matchup.
The Colts are getting healthier in recent weeks, with Carson Wentz no longer on the injury report and their offensive line starting to get back on track. As a result, we’ve seen a much better Colts offense over the last four weeks. Quietly, they’re among the best units in football, averaging 28.25 points per game over the last month of the season. Their games have also hit the over in three of the last four weeks.