NFL DFS Vegas Report for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 7
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
1. Los Angeles Rams (32.8) vs. Detroit Lions
2. Arizona Cardinals (31.8) vs. Houston Texans
3. Kansas City Chiefs (30.5) @ Tennessee Titans
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30.3) vs Chicago Bears
5. Green Bay Packers (28.8) vs. Washington Football Team
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 7
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
1. Houston Texans (15.3) @ Arizona Cardinals
2. Chicago Bears (16.8) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. New York Jets (17.8) @ New England Patriots
4. Detroit Lions (18.3) Los Angeles Rams
5. Washington Football Team (19.8) @ Green Bay Packers
Most Popular Game Stacks
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans, KC -4.5, O/U: 56.5
With the highest total on the slate and two teams that have star power at the skill positions, we can confidently project this game to carry the most roster percentage of any game on the main slate. In addition, the other high scoring games all have a spread of at least a TD, making this the most likely game to feature a back and forth type of shootout. Kansas City was able to keep Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team in check last week, but even with a strong(er) performance on the defensive side of the ball, K.C.’s numbers on the course of the year still leave a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the football. Prior to last week’s win over the Football Team, the Chiefs had given up 29 or more points to their opponents in every game.
As for Tennessee, they continue to be a sieve on defense, getting shredded to the tune of 26.8 points per game to the opposition while having one of the worst secondaries in football. On Monday night, Tennessee also lost their first round rookie CB Caleb Farley to a torn ACL, further weakening a defensive backfield trying to keep up with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman. Given that it’s easy to project the Chiefs to have success in this game in a soft matchup, there’s paths to Tennessee having to try to keep up, as we know DFS game stacks have a lot to do with how offenses interact with one another.
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