NFL DFS Vegas Report for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Top 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 10
Fantasy points are most strongly correlated to team implied totals (how many points Vegas expects each team to score). As a result, it makes sense to look at players from the following teams, especially in cash games. This does not necessarily mean these are automatically the best games to stack in tournaments. More on that soon.
1. Dallas Cowboys (32.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30.5) @ Washington Football Team
3. Buffalo Bills (30.3) @ New York Jets
4. Indianapolis Colts (28.8) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Los Angeles Chargers (27.3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Bottom 5 Team Implied Totals in Week 10
Given the strong correlation between implied totals and fantasy success, players on the following teams could consider being faded, especially if they are likely to carry elevated roster percentage in tournaments. In cash games, it likely makes the most sense to look elsewhere.
T1. New York Jets (17.3) vs. Buffalo Bills
T1. Carolina Panthers (17.3) @ Arizona Cardinals
T1. Detroit Lions (17.3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (18.8) @ Indianapolis Colts
5. New Orleans Saints (20.0) @ Tennessee Titans
Popular Game Stacks
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers, LAC -2.5, O/U: 52.0
The Vikings continue to play close game this year with seven of their eight games being decided by one score, which keeps them in play as a team that’s likely to play back and forth as they have all year. On the defensive side of the ball, Mike Zimmer has to be fuming based on what the Purple People Eaters have (or haven’t) done. The Vikings have been middle of the road in scoring defense this year, averaging 23.9 points against, but they’ve been up and down all season. After getting wrecked defensively in three straight games to open the year, they were solid in October. However, last week without Danielle Hunter, Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson in the lineup, they gave up 34 to the Ravens. The bottom line is that we’ve seen them get exposed multiple times this year, allowing ceiling performances to opposing offenses at times. If the Chargers can stay the course in this one at home, I like their chances of pushing the Vikings to keep up.