NFL DFS Pace of Play: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Projecting game flow is not an exact science for DFS. There are so many games that project to be high-scoring and up-tempo that end up being full duds. It’s especially infuriating when you do this for a living and try give advice to others.
It brought Betz and I much joy to double-down on the MIA/BAL game and have so many listeners and DFS Pass subscribers have a huge Week 2.
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 3, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (+6)– O/U: 53
The pace stats, at first glance, don’t look too pretty but take into account the fact these teams are both undefeated and Buffalo had perhaps one of the most boring second halves against Tennessee on Monday night. Miami also cruised in Week 1 over the Patriots so the bigger question is how will this game play out and what does the public think?
The pass rate over expectation metrics is what we need to key in on as BUF (1st) and MIA (3rd) both are at the top of the class. Buffalo is picking up right where they left off in 2021. Diggs’ 34 percent target share through two weeks doesn’t even begin to tell the story. He’s elite and underpriced on DraftKings. Gabriel Davis receives the Monday night pricing glitch and if healthy, he’ll be a popular play. Josh Allen is someone I usually don’t like to double-stack because of his rushing equity near the goal-line. Pick Diggs, Davis, or Dawson Knox and bring it back from MIA. The Bills are nearly a touchdown favorite on the road for a reason. The RBs are impossible to figure out in this game. Apart from a leverage situation where you believe Devin Singletary or Raheem Mostert get into the end-zone twice, you can’t confidently bank on either. Singletary might be the snaps leader but he’s seen only 18 touches in two games The Buffalo RBs have yet to see a high-value opportunity this year. Not even one.