NFL DFS Pace of Play: Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 2, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders (-6)– O/U: 51.5
In Week 1, the Raiders ranked 8th in pass rate over expectation and 3rd in neutral situation pass rate. Yes, they were playing from behind against Los Angeles all game long but the strength of this team is moving the ball through the air. Let’s start out by stating how incredibly popular and obvious the Derek Carr + Davante Adams stacking combo will be this week. At only 29.6 percent of your salary, it’s affordable. To compare, expensive stacks this week of Stafford + Kupp (32.4), Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase (29.2), and Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews (27.6) are in the same range. Both of Carr’s TDs last week came inside the red zone. It wouldn’t shock me to see all of the Raiders RBs garner under five percent combined roster percentage. Josh Jacobs ($5800-DK) is a strong contrarian play after seeing 60 percent of the snaps and seeing a touch on 31 percent of his snaps last week. He has the goal-line work in case anyone was afraid of rookie Zamir White taking over. Brandon Bolden did catch a red zone TD and will continue to be annoying on 3rd down.