NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 5, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on neutral pass rate and plays per game and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients from 2021 to 2022.
Make sure to check out the DFS & Betting Podcast where we break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week. Keep in mind we focus on the “main slate.”
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings
With the highest implied total (52.5) on the slate, we’ve given this game a 4.75 on our GPS ranks this week. These two pass-heavy teams have the capability of shooting out on any given week, but against each other, the odds increase significantly. Let’s consider a few key facts on both sides.
Andy Reid’s Chiefs are coming off a sluggish victory on Sunday night against the rock-solid New York Jets’ defense. While the offense looked rather unimpressive overall, I believe this has more to do with the Jets’ defense than anything else. This Patrick Mahomes led offense is in a get-right spot against a Vikings defense that ranks third to last in opponents’ passer rating (111.1), and second to last in opponents’ completion percentage (76.6%) according to PFF. We know what we’re getting with the Chiefs’ dynamic offense and that is a ton of passing in a variety of ways. The Chiefs have a 55% neutral pass rate through the first four weeks, but that number may be even higher this week. The Vikings’ defense is much better at defending the run than the pass so far, allowing just 3.5 YPC.
Isiah Pacheco is a solid runner, but his upside is somewhat limited with the Chiefs’ pass-heavy attack and committee approach at running back. With that said, I could see him or Jerick McKinnon scoring a touchdown or two from inside the 10-yard line. Travis Kelce is the focal point and Mahomes’ favorite target. So far this year, he leads the team in targets with 26, and he missed the first game of the season. Starting your builds with Mahomes and Kelce will be expensive, but in a game that is projected to be a shootout, they could pay off in a big way.
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