NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

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@kyle_borg

Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 4, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients from 2021 to 2022.

As you’ll notice, I added EPA (Expected Points Added) to our colorful spreadsheet as three games start to give us somewhat of a trend of how these teams are functioning. Keep in mind, we still need more data, and big games (hello 70 points scored!) will skew some things. If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.

Make sure to check out the DFS & Betting Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week. Keep in mind we focus on the “main slate”

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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

I caved to the pressure. I never EVER give a “5” out in my GPS ranks for the week. I was tempted to round down to 4.75 just to stick it to anyone who had any semblance of hope that I would ever give it out. I thought about pump faking here but surrendering to the pace numbers for this game I thought might be more helpful than my own spreadsheet ego.

  • Both teams rank top-5 in EPA per pass attempt, EPA per play, and pass success rate. That is a trifecta of goodness for fantasy scoring.
  • The 53.5 total is juicy and should hold steady throughout the week. Health is key. With Jaylen Waddle back in the picture, we get to add another insane speedster.
  • Both teams are willing to press the issue and “go-for-it” on 4th down with the Bills leading the NFL attempting to convert 29.4% of their 4th downs. Miami ranks 9th at 23%.
  • Mike McDaniel is showing a proclivity to step on the gas and run up the score. His bend to send players in motion is so far ahead of the curve.

Ok, you already wanted in on this game but hopefully that justified why this is far and away the best of the week. What did these two teams do last year in their divisional matchups?

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