NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 18 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 18, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no-huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Seattle needs to win and receive some help to get in this week. If you have a bad taste in your mouth from the Seattle offense, don’t point your finger solely at Geno Smith. As many have detailed this week, the defense might be the biggest issue this year and the reason why Seattle ranks dead last in plays per game (58.9) but 17th in points scored. In fact, Seattle ranks 10th in yards per play with a top-15 offensive in both EPA per rush and pass attempts. They’ve run into some anomalies inside the red zone scoring a TD on just 49% of their trips inside the 20 (24th in the NFL) and the WRs have been fairly boom-or-bust. It feels like the offense is so even split between D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and JSN, that the defense gets to sit in zone. The Cardinals play Cover 4 (4 deep in the secondary) at the highest rate in the NFL (34%) and rank dead last in EPA per pass attempt. There are opportunities for big plays in this game for Seattle which lends towards a D.K. Metcalf game or a Tyler Lockett revival. Per ETR’s Pat Thorman, “Both teams are top eight in total-game explosive play rate over the past month — while Seattle’s offense ranks second (13.5%) and Arizona’s defense is second worst (13.1%).” The running game with Kenneth Walker III is always worth a tournament look especially if you think Seattle grabs control of the game flow.
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