NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 16, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), and no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no-huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
The Dallas Cowboys laid an egg last week in Buffalo ending their five-game winning streak with ten measly points. They converted just five of 13 third downs and managed just 195 total yards. What was the issue? They just never had possession of the ball as Buffalo ran the ball down their throats with James Cook and the passing game failed to develop any explosive plays. Dak Prescott‘s calling card and the Cowboys recent success was on the back of an elevated pass rate and innovative play-calling. They rank 2nd in points per game, 3rd in plays per game, 2nd in first downs per game and last week was the first week they failed to hit their team implied total since Week 6. CeeDee Lamb is a centerpiece on this slate thanks to his prowess inside the red zone and his 37% air yards share. While Miami has limited big plays recently, they are still allowing 4.4 explosive plays per game and with a 25-point team implied total, it’s hard ignoring the Dallas passing game. They have the 5th highest neutral pass rate on 1st-and-10 which they need to lean into on the road. Dak double stacks are way more expensive than they’ve been but the roster percentages might be tempered after last week’s debacle. Jake Ferguson is a great, cheap stacking partner while Tony Pollard is nothing more than a wipeout pick.
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