NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 11, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
I added EPA (Expected Points Added) after about six weeks and this week I thought I’d highlight Sam Hoppen’s visual from Twitter.
If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Miami is coming off the bye and they’ve cleared this 30-point team implied total in every single home game this year. The offense is what we buy into based on it’s insane efficiency:
- 3rd in offensive EPA per play
- 2nd in Yards per Attempt
- 2nd in % of plays resulting in a 1st down
Stacking Tua with Tyreek almost feels boring at this point but the pair should be fired up again against a Raiders secondary ranked 26th in EPA per pass attempt. Keep in mind that the Dolphins haven’t exactly given us the back-and-forth affairs every week that we dreamed of. Per ETR’s Pat Thorman, Miami games have averaged just 118 combined plays over the last month, 31st in the NFL. If you think this game hits the under, there is good reason to outrightly fade as the pricing for the main players is quite expensive. In fact, a Tua + Tyreek stack with an Adams bring back is eating up almost exactly 50% of your salary at $24,900. In other words, you need those three to score 100 combined points or you are behind the eight-ball in large-field tournaments.