NFL DFS Pace of Play & Stacks for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 10, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.

I added EPA (Expected Points Added) to our colorful spreadsheet as seven games start to give us somewhat of a trend of how these teams are functioning. If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.

Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers

At first glance, this one profiles as an absolute barn-burner with the Chargers preferring to raise the heart pressure of every single person imaginable participating in their games. However, Detroit games a bit of a conundrum when you factor in pace. They rank #2 in plays per game (69.1) but the way they get there is on slow, methodical drives checking in at #2 in average time of possession. The running game is what Dan Campbell would prefer to establish and with David Montgomery returning from injury, we have to deal with a split backfield in DFS. Can either of these RBs truly get there in a tournament? Yes, but keep in mind Los Angeles is not the tradition run funnel unit they’ve been in the past. Goff deserves to be double-stacked offering nothing on the ground so don’t be afraid to lean into their team implied total. Los Angeles has allowed the 3rd most passing yards in the NFL and rank 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Hint Hint: Sam LaPorta looks good this week.

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