NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Super Bowl LX
Bring on Super Bowl LX!
In a one-game sample size, the possibilities feel endless when you start considering how this game will play out between the Patriots and Seahawks. All of our preconceived notions of these teams and our player evaluations come to the forefront but ultimately this comes down to roster construction. I personally play in large field tournaments at this point in the season and had good success in the Conference Championship identifying leverage points from our projected ownership in the Optimizer.
Make sure to check out Friday’s DFS & Betting Podcast where Betz and I break down Super Bowl LX and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
A reminder of what you need to be willing to do in Showdown-type formats:
Be willing to leave money on the table. It’s not comfortable but our research shows how often lineups are duplicated in showdown formats the closer you get to the $50K line. It’s not weird to see lineups with $1200 or more just sitting there.
Be willing to go with “the other guy” when selecting pass catchers. Comparing our roster percentages, Mack Hollins is looking like he’ll be rostered about 15-20+ % more than Stefon Diggs due to their salary difference of $5,000 in the FLEX spot. That is called leverage my friends.
Be willing to change your opinion as injury reports come out. Injuries open up an opportunity for depth players to be fantasy viable at $200 to $2,000. Drake Maye‘s status is probably the biggest piece of news we are waiting on but the Patriots WRs are all over the map from projected playing time to actual efficiency on the field. Good luck figuring that one out. I’ll share some of my convictions below.
Overarching Pace Thoughts
For the Super Bowl, I’ve divided up both sides of the ball to give you a visual representation of how NE & SEA match up. Depending on the Sportsbook, 4 or 4.5 points is the line you will see favoring the Seahawks. I will walk through both sides and give takes on game theory and how these players might be utilized. Keep in mind that season-long statistics and the adjustments each team made over the last two months (and the playoffs) are arguably more critical.
Here are a few confidence thoughts when constructing your lineup:
SEA Offense vs. NE Defense
Sam Darnold‘s redemption arc the last two seasons have surrounded efficiency and offenses predicated on heavier personnel and play-action. He ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per attempt (11.2) and tied for 2nd in fantasy points per drop back (0.76) utilizing play-action. The best parts of Darnold and this offense is when some semblance of a running game keeps opposing defenses honest and then Jaxon Smith-Njigba is allowed to be all that he can be. For context, Darnold threw for 658 yards when targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba on under center play-action attempts, the most among any QB-receiver duo and more than 19 entire NFL offenses. Seriously, it feels almost impossible to move away from JSN when talking about this offense and DFS purposes but below I will give you an outcome where he (…whispers…) isn’t optimal.
OC Klint Kubiak gives him ample opportunity outside the pocket to read defenses using designed rollouts on 12.6% of his drop backs (4th highest in the NFL) and play-action under center on 24%, also the 4th highest rate. It creates throwing lanes and layered routes on crossers that have given opposing defenses fits even if outside of JSN no-one else has been dependable. The Patriots’ defense has used nickel personnel on 72% of snaps in the 16 games LB Robert Spillane has played this season, including the playoffs. With Spillane active, the Patriots have been more willing to match multiple tight end sets (like SEA has perfected) with nickel personnel, doing so on 46% of snaps, compared to 28.6% of snaps when he has been inactive. It’s been a spot for Rashid Shaheed to see a slight uptick in TPRR (22%) and 1st read target share (22.5%) while Cooper Kupp quietly ends up with respectable 2.07 YPRR and 15.3 yards per reception. TE AJ Barner saw 96% of the team snaps in the NFC title game and is one of the better value pieces in this game if you view him purely as a sub $5K pass-catcher. In other words, I could foresee myself playing multiple Seahawks pass-catchers in game scripts where Darnold commits and few turnovers and they have to battle back in the 2nd half.
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