NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 7, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate from the 1st three weeks, and factor that for a final GPS score. As I mentioned at the beginning of the season, no huddle rate had one of the strongest correlation coefficients year-to-year.
I added EPA (Expected Points Added) to our colorful spreadsheet as five games start to give us somewhat of a trend of how these teams are functioning. Keep in mind, we still need more data, and big games will skew some things. If you’d like another visual format of Expected Points per Play, shout out to nflelo and one of my favorite websites for analytics & EPA tiers.
Make sure to check out the DFS & Betting Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week. Keep in mind we focus on the “main slate”
This game clearly sits above the rest this week on a couple of different levels. Both teams rank in the top-5 of PROE. Both average over 365 yards per game, both top-8 marks.
Since Justin Herbert became the starter, here are the six divisional games between these two teams:
|Date||Week||Home Team||Combined Plays||KC Result|
The 141 combined plays on average is a delight while the average combined score of 54 begs the question why this game was bet down to 48.5? The trends of unders this year are weighing heavily but you can have confidence in a back-and-forth affair. Per ETR’s Pat Thorman, “the Chiefs aren’t playing as quickly as we’re used to, ranking 12th in pace — versus third a year ago“. The only concern is if KC sits on a lead and shortens the overall play volume.