NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)- O/U: 52.5
On a week with few games hitting the 50 total, this one currently sits with the highest total. There needs to be some context with the Cowboys as their pace metrics and pass rate don’t necessarily match up. Dak’s pass attempts have declined each week bottoming out to only 22 last week. The TEs have been seeing a ridiculous target share the last two weeks. And yet their rush rate is through the roof. That all adds up to a plus spot for the passing game to break through against a Giants defense allowing the 8th most points per drive. You can lean on Dak again in cash but for GPPs, his options are underpriced considering they carry the highest team implied total of the entire week. Ceedee Lamb ran more routes than any other Dallas WR last week so his 2-for-13 line is puzzling. Go back to him in and stack with another DAL pass-catcher like Dalton Schultz.
On the Giants’ side, they finally got a win last week in New Orleans and the most impressive part is how the offense diversified itself. Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney were super involved and Saquon Barkley‘s scamper into the end-zone in the passing game shows this Giants offense has some life. They are running 3-WR sets on almost 70 percent of their plays so the healthy of Darius Slayton & Sterling Shepard is going to be big for their scheme. Dallas is seeing the highest pass rate (76.5%) in the league so volume should be on Daniel Jones‘ side as a 7.5-point dog. It’s where his targets are landing that is encouraging with the highest rate of intermediate attempts (10-19 yards) in the NFL. Jones could break the slate or burn your entry to the ground making him a popular GPP candidate this week. He’s averaging almost seven rush attempts per game which makes him a true difference-maker if he hits.