NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 14 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Before I jump into this week’s article, I want to introduce a simple metric I’ve been working on during the season: Game Pace Score (GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game-scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering close to 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
Keep in mind that we must analyze these pace up spots within the context of the slate. In other words, while each game is played between just two teams, the selections you make in DFS are not. You can only roster one QB and thus his stacking options with him.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with. Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)- O/U: 52.5
Both of these teams pack a punch on the offensive side of the ball and come in at a 4.5 per our Game Pace Score. We love the Bucs because of their efficiency ranking 3rd in yards per play, 2nd in points per drive, and 4th in early down success rate. Tampa Bay is way more versatile than you might realize ranking #1 in rush success rate and 2nd in pass success rate. Tom Brady is an automatic double-stack” considering he adds nothing on the ground. I lean in Mike Evans‘ direction with Tre’Davious White out for the rest of the year. Leonard Fournette leads all NFL RBs in receptions and over the last month, Buffalo quietly is allowing the 4th MOST RB fantasy points.