NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 13, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)- O/U: 52.5
Yes baby! This is a DFS dream with both teams ranking in the top-3 of pass rate over expectation, 1st half pass rate, and top-4 in 1st down pass rate. The Chiefs rank #1 in drive success rate, points per game, and TDs per game while Cincinnati flipped a switch in Week 3. Since that time, they rank 2nd in EPA per pass attempt, 2nd in pass rate over expectation, and 4th in points scored. Pace-wise they also are throwing at the 3rd highest rate on 1st down in the 2nd half when leading. The stacking options seem relatively clear on the KC side with Travis Kelce clearly out-distancing himself from the rest of the TE field. On the Bengals side, we saw what the Burrow + Chase combo did last year in this matchup making his availability for this game even more intriguing. Zac Taylor says things are different this year from a matchup point of view but double-stacking Burrow seems like the route worth taking.
So how could this game go south? And if it does fail, do you just completely abandon it for GPPs knowing the field is going to be so heavily invested? For context, we’ve had seven KC games this year with a total over 50 with four of them hitting the under. In those games, the Chiefs failed to hit their team-implied total in all four scoring 27, 17, 20, & 27. Not exactly rubbish but far from the DFS explosion you wanted. For example, the Bills/Chiefs rematch we all wanted to see from the AFC playoffs ended at 24-20 in Week 6. The Chiefs throw at will but the Bengals do slow things down ranking just 16th in pass rate when leading in the 2nd half of games. Their pace slows dramatically to 31st in seconds per drive and 28th in seconds per play. The Chiefs side can still get there because Mahomes prints 300 yards but the overall offensive plays in the game shrink if the Bengals get a lead early and sit on it.
What do you need from the KC side? A Mahomes/Kelce stack is roughly 32 percent of your DK salary so 4xing is 65+ points, something they’ve accomplished just three times together. A bring-back WR on the CIN side like Chase or Higgins needs 25+ points minimum to pay off their salary. On the other hand, double-stacking Burrow is going to be a popular route so keep that in mind as Hurst projects as one of our most rostered plays of the week. Over the last 19 games played, here is how well each pass-catcher has correlated with Burrow: