NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. In 2020, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)- O/U: 56.5
Team Implied Total
Pass Success Rate
There’s no arguing about the importance of this game on the slate. Betz shared an overview of how Vegas views KC/DAL that you should read first. I want to piggyback on that and discuss a couple of different scenarios of how this game could play out and how the pace of play is affected in each.
- Back-and-forth– This is the most likely outcome given the fact we have two offenses we want. Dallas ranks #1 in expected points added per pass attempt and KC is 2nd. Dallas is arguably the most efficient offense in the NFL coming in #1 in yards per play and points per drive. That is a beautiful combo for an underdog to hit their team implied total and push the pace. Realize that stacking Dak or Mahomes with two pass-catchers is going to be cost-prohibitive to the rest of your roster construction. As I’ll mention in the dart throws section, attaching the right low rostered piece that finds the end-zone is a way to get different than the crowd.
- KC dominates– As 2.5-point favorites, Mahomes and company could shred Dallas simply by sustaining drives with the highest early down success rate and the highest 3rd down success rate in the league. Don’t be surprised if the duo of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams see 20+ carries in this scenario in the second half. In this type of build, you are single-stacking Mahomes and bringing it back with a Dallas pass-catcher.
- DAL controls the clock– As it’s been much publicized, teams have started to use “Cover 2 shells” against Kansas City this year eliminating big plays and basically forcing Mahomes to rely on his wizardry and secondary receiving options apart from Hill & Kelce. Dallas’ defense is certainly capable enough with rookie LB Micah Parsons and CB Trevon Diggs able to cover ground and create turnovers. Dallas’ best chance is to limit the number of plays in the game and control the clock with success on the ground. While carrying the 8th highest rush rate is largely due to winning seven games, Dallas’ gap concepts line up well against a KC defense seeing the highest percentage of gap runs (53%) in the league. That might be a #footballguy take but there is a real outcome where Dallas imposes its will in the trenches. In this scenario, the game hits the under and you would likely run a mini-correlation Ezekiel Elliott and one of the KC big guns.