NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 11, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (-3)- O/U: 50.5
I don’t exactly feel comfortable as a Falcons fan going in on this game for very, very biased reasons. I will try to remove myself from the equation and try to get my head around the fact this game has a 50+ total. Both teams want to run and both teams play extremely slow. Normally that would be a recipe for fading a game. The passing games are basically all-or-nothing with Fields and Mariota ranking top-6 in aDOT but each completing just one 20+ yard pass plays per game on the season. The metrics might look tempting but the chances are few. The Bears have lived off of big plays recently with some monster Fields runs and a couple of Cole Kmet broken TDs. Those aren’t repeatable but both defenses are more than forgiving in a number of areas. Atlanta ranks dead last in passing yards per game and pressure rate while still ranking 26th in EPA per rush attempt. It’s extremely hard to be bad in both areas but the Falcons are somehow “falconing” yet again.