NFL DFS Pace of Play for Thanksgiving Slate (Fantasy Football)

Home  >  DFS
The FootClan
Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode
Join the FootClan
@TheFantasyPT

The Thanksgiving Day three-game DFS Slate is by far my favorite slate of the year. It’s a time to take a step back and enjoy some family, great food and of course, football. From the entire Fantasy Footballers team to yours, I hope you all have a great holiday. We’re so thankful we get to do what we do for a living, and the FootClan is the reason why. Thank you for choosing the DFS Pass!

On this slate, we have a fun three-gamer ahead of us. If you’re looking for a lay of the land when it comes to pricing, be sure to check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for the Thanksgiving Slate and for more context around these game stacks, tune into Tuesday’s DFS & Betting Podcast. Our FanDuel and DraftKings top plays for cash and GPPs will be out on Wednesday. Let’s dive in!

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions, DET -7.5, O/U: 47.5

Team Totals & GPS

  • Lions: 27.5
  • Packers: 20.0
  • GPS: 4.0

Turkey Day’s appetizer is an NFC North battle between two of the historic franchises in the NFL. Green Bay travels to Ford Field to take on a surging Lions team that has its eyes set on the post-season with this game carrying a healthy 47.5 game total, which has been bet up a full point and a half since Monday. Detroit’s 27.5 implied point total is something to bet on this week given that the Lions are averaging 30 points per game at home this season, and over the last two years, Detroit home games have been a profitable for fantasy points.

Let’s start on the Detroit side of this matchup. In recent weeks, we’ve gotten back to last year’s Lions recipe for success – they’re great offensively, yet they struggle defensively, which has helped five of their last seven games hit the over. Since Week 6, Detroit has been bad, like bad bad on defense. In that sample, they rank 26th in EPA per play and 28th in success rate defensively. A leaky defense with an offense capable of putting up 30+ points every week is a recipe for success for this game to pop off, and there’s many ways to attack the Lions side of the ball. Let’s start with Goff stacks, which are potentially setup to do very well on this slate. While most of the field will flock to the running game (rightfully so), this is quietly a very good spot for Detroit to find success via the air. Since Week 6, Green Bay has morphed into a pass funnel, ranking 28th in pass def EPA while ranking 7th in rush defense EPA. In that sample, they’re middle of the pack in pressure rate while the Lions offensive line is getting healthy at the right time. It’s resulted in Goff being pressured on just over 30% of his drop backs over the last six weeks. Among 29 qualified QBs, that number is the 11th-lowest in the league. If Goff gets time in the pocket, he can pick apart this secondary that’s struggled in recent weeks. 

Want to read the rest of this article?

Get the 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass for instant access. The 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass is currently available as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+.

Get the 2026 UDK+

Already purchased the DFS Pass? Log in here