NFL DFS Pace of Play for Super Bowl LVI (Fantasy Football)

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game. In the DFS world, that’s a massive difference considering volume is king. In 2019, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in a neutral game script.

Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I breakdown Super Bowl LVI and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.

Overarching Pace Thoughts

These two teams operated completely differently in the regular season in terms of neutral game pace. But a further dive into the numbers you’ll see they aren’t that different from each other operationally.

Los Angeles Rams
Cincinnati Bengals
Plays Per Game 55.68 52.25
Neutral Pace 3rd 30th
Yards Per Play 5.97 5.87
20+ Yard Pass Plays 63 65
RZ Defense 12th 16th

The Bengals pace of play metrics don’t always align with teams we’d find in that bottom-5 tier. Much of that has to do with their big plays ranking 8th in total points scored and almost matching the Rams on a yards per play basis. Per Rich Hribar, Cincinnati has scored on 56.7% (17-of-30) of their postseason possessions, up from their 44.3% in the regular season (12th). When you add Evan McPherson becoming automatic, this offense has made up for its shortcomings running the ball on 1st and 10.

Depending on the sportsbook, 4 or 4.5 points is almost negligible at this point. It gives us the impression that as more than a FG favorite, Los Angeles is vulnerable in certain game scripts. The most valuable part of a Showdown slate analysis is getting different. Here are a few confidence builders when constructing your lineup:

  • Be willing to go with “the other guy” when selecting pass catchers
  • Be willing to change your opinion as injury reports come out.  Injuries open up an opportunity for depth players to be fantasy viable at $200 to $2,000.
  • Be willing to leave money on the table.

Game Scripts to Keep in Mind

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