Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 9
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 9!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Chase Brown did not make the chart above as he ranks just outside of the top 30 in points per game. However, Brown has led the Bengals’ backfield in usage value over the last four weeks. In that timespan, he is averaging 56% rushing share, 9.8% target share, and 10.5 Expected Fantasy Points – firmly entrenched as a weekly flex running back for fantasy managers. His ceiling could be even higher in Week 9 as the Bengals face a Raiders defense that has struggled to contain opposing running backs. Over the last three games, the Raiders have allowed an average of 15.8 half-PPR points as Kareem Hunt, Kyren Williams, and Najee Harris all finished within the top 20. Assuming Brown continues to command the majority of the opportunities, he could be one of the better values at the running back position in this week’s slate.
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