Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 6
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 6!
In this article, we will utilize my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you may already know, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, it’s important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s value can differ significantly based on their usage and their offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are new to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Josh Jacobs has been an RB1 in my Expected Points model in every game this season as the Packers continue to rely heavily on the running game. For context, Green Bay is currently 27th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expected (-5%). As a result, Jacobs has seen tremendous volume and is currently the RB2 in usage value to start the season. Coming out of their bye week, I expect to see a similar game plan for the Packers, as the Bengals have been one of the most favorable matchups for RBs this year. Not only are they giving up the most fantasy points per game to the position, but they are also allowing the second-highest Success Rate (46.1%) and EPA per Play (0.11) to RBs. Especially with the Packers favored by over 14 points, Jacobs should dominate in what projects to be a positive game script and matchup.
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