Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 5
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 5!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to ideally target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a complete picture of a player’s value.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
- Alvin Kamara is finally back, making an immediate impact in our fantasy lineups. Despite finishing the week as only the RB12 with 14.9 half-PPR points, his usage value ranked significantly higher. Kamara accounted for 44% of the team’s total opportunities, which equated to an impressive 22.6 Expected Fantasy Points. He also finished the week with a 36.8% target share, the fourth-highest by a running back in a single game since 2020. And even though nine of his 14 targets were located behind the line of scrimmage, the sheer volume of opportunities is what propelled him to be the RB1 in usage this past week. Although I anticipate his receiving volume to normalize against the Patriots in Week 5, it is evident that Kamara will continue to be a key weapon for the Saints’ offense. As a result, regardless of the matchup, he should continue to hold RB1 upside due to his enormous volume.