Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 3

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Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 3!

In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.

The key metrics used in this article are:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
  • Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week

What do these metrics tell us?

  • My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE)
  • Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we ideally want to target players that rank highly in xFP
  • xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one piece of the puzzle and it should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a complete picture of a player’s value
  • While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups

If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.

If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

RUNNING BACKS

  • Tony Pollard is shaping up to be one of the most valuable fantasy running backs in the league. Through two games, he ranks as the RB1 in Expected Fantasy Points at 21.0 xFP, which is about 17% higher than the RB2 in Austin Ekeler. In addition, he is also fourth among running backs in target share (17.7%) and first in opportunities inside the 10 (12). As a result, Pollard’s dominance in high-value situations gives him an extremely high baseline for fantasy managers, as he should remain heavily involved regardless of the game script. And against a Cardinals team that will likely trail for most of the game, Pollard should be involved early and often in Week 3. So while he may be an expensive option for DFS, he should be one of the safest running backs due to his immense usage in this offense.

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