Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 2
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 2!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at every position over the last few games. As you already know, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their unique usage and offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points can help quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on a variety of factors – such as the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE)
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one piece of the puzzle and it should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a complete picture of a player’s value
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your lineups
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- We have to start things off with Aaron Jones, who finished the week as the RB1. However, as you can see in the chart above, he only ranked as the RB26 in Expected Fantasy Points with 11.9. While this would imply that his usage was far from stellar, keep in mind that the Packers held a sizable lead by the end of the 3rd quarter while Jones was dealing with a hamstring injury. As a result, he only received 13 opportunities against the Bears. While some of that efficiency will regress (unlikely Jones continues to average 9.8 yards per touch), I’d imagine it will be offset with more opportunities in much closer games. In fact, Green Bay ranked 21st in the league in Pass Rate Over Expected (-4.4%) on early downs in Week 1, implying that the run game will remain a focal point for their offense. In short, Jones will continue to have RB1 upside as long as his hamstring injury does not linger.
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