Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 2
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 2!
In this article, we will utilize my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you may already know, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, it’s important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s value can differ significantly based on their usage and their offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players whose production is rooted in xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while those who rely heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their performance. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. Ideally, we should use xFP in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic point of view.
- While I advise caution when investing in players who depend on FPOE, I do not recommend completely avoiding them. Players who rely on efficiency can have a wider range of outcomes, meaning they can increase the ceiling of your DFS lineups while also lowering the floor.
If you are new to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- One of the clearest regression candidates coming out of Week 1 is Jahmyr Gibbs, who struggled against an improved Packers’ defense that finished top-eight in EPA per Play (-0.279) and Success Rate (31.8%) allowed against RBs. As a result, he finished nearly 7.2 fantasy points BELOW expected. However, from a usage standpoint, Gibbs was one of the highest-ranked players in my Expected Points model. As you can see above, he finished Week 1 with 17.1 Expected Points and was the RB3 in usage value. Similar to years past, Gibbs and David Montgomery finished with identical usage numbers in the running game. However, it was Gibbs’ heavy involvement in the receiving game that set him apart against the Packers, commanding an elite 26.3% target share and 22.7% targets per snap. With one of the highest team-implied totals (26.5) for Week 2, I expect Gibbs to finish much closer to his usage value against a Bears defense that allowed multiple explosive plays to both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. And even though Montgomery is also a viable option, Gibbs clearly holds the highest upside in this backfield.
Get the 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass for instant access. The 2026 Ultimate DFS Pass is currently available as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+. Already purchased the DFS Pass? Log in hereWant to read the rest of this article?
