Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 17
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 17!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE
RUNNING BACKS
- Jonathan Taylor is coming off his most productive performance this season, totaling 39.8 half-PPR points against the Titans in Week 16. The more impressive aspect of his performance is his continued RB1 usage, ranking as the RB6 in Expected Fantasy Points (17.1) over the last four weeks. Even with his limited involvement as a receiver, Taylor will continue to hold significant upside due to his heavy usage in the running game, averaging the seventh-highest rushing share (65.6%) among running backs since Week 13. As a result, his usage should lead to another productive week as the Colts are set to face a Giants defense that has allowed the most opportunities per game to running backs over their last five games. With the Colts favored to win this matchup, Taylor should receive plenty of touches in a run-heavy game script, setting him up for another RB1 performance in Week 17.
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