Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 15
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 15!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to highlight the most valuable players at each position. Naturally, volume matters tremendously for fantasy football. However, it is important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s value will vary based on their usage and their team’s offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take those variables into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players that rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are newer to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE
RUNNING BACKS
- Even if Breece Hall misses another week, the Jets’ running backs are set for a successful performance as they face a struggling Jacksonville defense. For context, the Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points per game over the last six weeks (26.5), while ranking in the bottom five in EPA per Play (0.02) and Success Rate (46.5%) allowed to the running back position. In fact, they have allowed an RB1 performance in every single game over the last six weeks, most recently to Tony Pollard and Joe Mixon. If Hall is healthy enough to play, he should be locked in as a top-12 option, considering he averages 13.8 Expected Fantasy Points this season. If he were to miss this game, Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen should step in as dependable flex options. Against Miami, both running backs finished within the top 24 in my usage model, each accounting for 27% of the team’s opportunities. Keep in mind though that it was Davis who finished with a higher Expected Point Value (14.0) as he led the backfield in target share (15.4%) and air yards share (8.3%). On the other hand, Allen still finished with 12.5 xFP, leading them in snap share (56%) and route participation (47%). In short, with or without Hall, the Jets’ running backs should find plenty of success against a vulnerable Jacksonville defense.
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